Cerezo Osaka — Kawasaki Frontale 3:0: match report and statistics

• 2 Expected goals (xG) 0.99
• 51% Possession 49%
• 8 Total shots 12
• 4 Shots on target 5
• 5 Corners 2
• 77 (322/416)Assists(427/526) 81
• 0 Yellow cards 1
• 4 Shots off target 7
• 3 Offsides 2
• 14 Free kicks 13
• 10 Fouls 14
• 5 Saves 2
• 8 Goal attempts 13

Tournament

Japan. J-League

Season

2023

Attendance

18,789

Referee

Shu Kawamata

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Vissel Kobe	34	21	8	5	60:29	+31	71	WWWDW
2	Yokohama F. Marinos	34	19	7	8	63:40	+23	64	LDWWW
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	34	17	7	10	42:28	+14	58	WWDWD
4	Urawa Red Diamonds	34	15	12	7	42:27	+15	57	WLLDW
5	Kashima Antlers	34	14	10	10	43:34	+9	52	WLDDL
6	Nagoya Grampus	34	14	10	10	41:36	+5	52	DLLDW
7	Avispa Fukuoka	34	15	6	13	37:43	-6	51	LWWLL
8	Kawasaki Frontale	34	14	8	12	51:45	+6	50	WWDDW
9	Cerezo Osaka	34	15	4	15	39:34	+5	49	LLLWD
10	Albirex Niigata	34	11	12	11	36:40	-4	45	WDDWD
11	Tokyo	34	12	7	15	42:46	-4	43	WLDLL
12	Consadole Sapporo	34	10	10	14	56:61	-5	40	LWDWL
13	Kyoto Sanga	34	12	4	18	40:45	-5	40	WWDLL
14	Sagan Tosu	34	9	11	14	43:47	-4	38	LDLDD
15	Shonan Bellmare	34	8	10	16	40:56	-16	34	LWWDW
16	Gamba Osaka	34	9	7	18	38:61	-23	34	LLLLL
17	Kashiwa Reysol	34	6	15	13	33:47	-14	33	DDDDL
18	Yokohama	34	7	8	19	31:58	-27	29	LLWLW

• Promotion - Champions League
• Promotion - AFC Champions League 2
• Relegation - Japan. J-League Division 2

• The model expects 2.3 goals: 1.25 for Cerezo Osaka and 1.05 for Kawasaki Frontale.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (13%).
• Corners: about 8.4 (4.1 — 4.3).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 46-60: 9 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.05, 2nd — 1.24.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	90%	1.11
Over 1.5	44%	80%	67%	1.50
Over 2.5	22%	50%	40%	2.48
Over 3.5	11%	30%	20%	5.01
Over 4.5	11%	10%	8%	12.02

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (9), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Cerezo Osaka Kawasaki Frontale

• Winless in 5 matches100%
• Under 2.5 in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored under 2.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 3.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored over 0.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 7.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Under 10.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Scored first in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Cerezo Osakamatches: 9 · 10Kawasaki Frontale

1.89Avg match total2.7

100%9/9Over 0.5100%10/10

0%0/9Under 0.50%0/10

44%4/9Over 1.580%8/10

56%5/9Under 1.520%2/10

22%2/9Over 2.550%5/10

78%7/9Under 2.550%5/10

11%1/9Over 3.530%3/10

89%8/9Under 3.570%7/10

11%1/9Over 4.510%1/10

89%8/9Under 4.590%9/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Cerezo OsakaKawasaki Frontale

44%4/9Scores first40%4/10

100%4/4…and wins75%3/4

0%0/4…and draws25%1/4

0%0/4…and loses0%0/4

25%1/4…and then concedes50%2/4

First to concede…

Overall

• • Cerezo Osaka opened the scoring in 44% of matches.
• • Cerezo Osaka avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Kawasaki Frontale opened the scoring in 40% of matches.
• • Kawasaki Frontale avoided defeat after conceding first in 17% of such matches.

Cerezo Osaka				Kawasaki Frontale
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	3	33%	1–15	30%	1	2
2	1	33%	16–30	40%	3	2
1	0	11%	31–45	30%	1	2
1	1	11%	46–60	60%	2	5
1	2	22%	61–75	50%	3	2
2	1	33%	76–90	40%	2	2
1	0	11%	37–HT	30%	1	2
1	1	22%	87–FT	30%	2	1

• • Cerezo Osaka scores most in 1–15: 2 of 9 goals (22%).
• • Cerezo Osaka concedes most in 1–15: 3 of 8 conceded.
• • Cerezo Osaka scores 33% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Kawasaki Frontale scores most in 16–30: 3 of 12 goals (25%).
• • Kawasaki Frontale concedes most in 46–60: 5 of 15 conceded.
• • Kawasaki Frontale scores 42% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Cerezo OsakaKawasaki Frontale

4.1Corners won, avg3.7

4.9Corners conceded, avg4.1

9.0Match corners, avg7.8

1.78Corners in 1st half, avg1.9

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Cerezo Osakaper matchKawasaki Frontale

1.19xG for1.21

1.1xG against1.22

12.0Shots11.2

6.5Shots against11.2

4.0Shots on target4.0

4.1On target against4.2

8%Conversion11%

12.0Shots per goal9.3

10.3Fouls11.4

1.67Offsides2.7

• • Cerezo Osaka scores 0.19 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Cerezo Osaka concedes 0.21 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Kawasaki Frontale scores 0.01 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Kawasaki Frontale concedes 0.28 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 3.17 goals per match on average.