Shonan Bellmare — Tokyo 0:1: match report and statistics

• 0.26 Expected goals (xG) 0.51
• 44% Possession 56%
• 9 Total shots 14
• 1 Shots on target 2
• 7 Corners 4
• 73 (301/412)Assists(344/440) 78
• 1 Yellow cards 2
• 8 Shots off target 12
• 2 Offsides 1
• 9 Free kicks 23
• 21 Fouls 8
• 1 Saves 1

Tournament

Japan. J-League

Season

2023

Attendance

12,653

Referee

Ryo Tanimoto

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Vissel Kobe	34	21	8	5	60:29	+31	71	WWWDW
2	Yokohama F. Marinos	34	19	7	8	63:40	+23	64	LDWWW
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	34	17	7	10	42:28	+14	58	WWDWD
4	Urawa Red Diamonds	34	15	12	7	42:27	+15	57	WLLDW
5	Kashima Antlers	34	14	10	10	43:34	+9	52	WLDDL
6	Nagoya Grampus	34	14	10	10	41:36	+5	52	DLLDW
7	Avispa Fukuoka	34	15	6	13	37:43	-6	51	LWWLL
8	Kawasaki Frontale	34	14	8	12	51:45	+6	50	WWDDW
9	Cerezo Osaka	34	15	4	15	39:34	+5	49	LLLWD
10	Albirex Niigata	34	11	12	11	36:40	-4	45	WDDWD
11	Tokyo	34	12	7	15	42:46	-4	43	WLDLL
12	Consadole Sapporo	34	10	10	14	56:61	-5	40	LWDWL
13	Kyoto Sanga	34	12	4	18	40:45	-5	40	WWDLL
14	Sagan Tosu	34	9	11	14	43:47	-4	38	LDLDD
15	Shonan Bellmare	34	8	10	16	40:56	-16	34	LWWDW
16	Gamba Osaka	34	9	7	18	38:61	-23	34	LLLLL
17	Kashiwa Reysol	34	6	15	13	33:47	-14	33	DDDDL
18	Yokohama	34	7	8	19	31:58	-27	29	LLWLW

• Promotion - Champions League
• Promotion - AFC Champions League 2
• Relegation - Japan. J-League Division 2

• The model expects 2.55 goals: 1.1 for Shonan Bellmare and 1.45 for Tokyo.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
• Corners: about 10.4 (5.9 — 4.4).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 16-30: 8 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.3, 2nd — 1.25.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	80%	92%	1.08
Over 1.5	60%	50%	72%	1.38
Over 2.5	40%	40%	47%	2.13
Over 3.5	40%	30%	25%	3.95
Over 4.5	20%	20%	12%	8.65

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (5), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Shonan Bellmare Tokyo

• Under 2.5 in 7 matches in a row100%
• Winless in 4 matches100%
• Scored under 1.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Under 4.5 cards in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 2.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%
• At least one team failed to score in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Over 9.5 corners in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Scored under 1.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Shonan Bellmarematches: 5 · 10Tokyo

2.8Avg match total2.3

100%5/5Over 0.580%8/10

0%0/5Under 0.520%2/10

60%3/5Over 1.550%5/10

40%2/5Under 1.550%5/10

40%2/5Over 2.540%4/10

60%3/5Under 2.560%6/10

40%2/5Over 3.530%3/10

60%3/5Under 3.570%7/10

20%1/5Over 4.520%2/10

80%4/5Under 4.580%8/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Shonan BellmareTokyo

40%2/5Scores first13%1/8

50%1/2…and wins100%1/1

50%1/2…and draws0%0/1

0%0/2…and loses0%0/1

50%1/2…and then concedes0%0/1

First to concede…

Overall

• • Shonan Bellmare opened the scoring in 40% of matches.
• • Shonan Bellmare avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Tokyo opened the scoring in 13% of matches.
• • Tokyo avoided defeat after conceding first in 14% of such matches.

Shonan Bellmare				Tokyo
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
1	2	60%	1–15	40%	1	3
0	2	40%	16–30	50%	2	4
0	1	20%	31–45	30%	0	4
1	1	40%	46–60	40%	1	3
0	2	40%	61–75	10%	1	0
1	3	60%	76–90	40%	2	2
0	1	20%	37–HT	20%	0	3
0	1	20%	87–FT	30%	1	2

• • Shonan Bellmare scores most in 1–15: 1 of 3 goals (33%).
• • Shonan Bellmare concedes most in 76–90: 3 of 11 conceded.
• • Tokyo scores most in 16–30: 2 of 7 goals (29%).
• • Tokyo concedes most in 16–30: 4 of 16 conceded.
• • Tokyo scores 43% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Shonan BellmareTokyo

7.2Corners won, avg3.7

5.2Corners conceded, avg4.7

12.4Match corners, avg8.3

2.6Corners in 1st half, avg1.11

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Shonan Bellmareper matchTokyo

0.96xG for1.3

1.76xG against1.59

12.0Shots11.0

14.0Shots against10.7

4.8Shots on target3.7

5.4On target against6.4

5%Conversion6%

20.0Shots per goal15.7

14.0Fouls13.0

2.0Offsides2.33

• • Shonan Bellmare scores 0.36 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Shonan Bellmare concedes 0.44 per match more than opponents' xG.
• • Tokyo scores 0.6 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Tokyo concedes 0.01 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 2.83 goals per match on average.