Montedio Yamagata — V-Varen Nagasaki 5:1: match report and statistics

• 49% Possession 51%
• 14 Goal attempts 16
• 5 Shots on target 5
• 9 Shots off target 11
• 14 Free kicks 13
• 10 Corners 7
• 1 Offsides 0
• 4 Saves 0
• 12 Fouls 14
• 2 Yellow cards 3
• 335 Total passes 368
• 249 Passes completed 283
• 16 Tackles 9
• 77 Attacks 79
• 43 Dangerous attacks 57

Tournament

Japan. J-League Division 2

Season

2023

Attendance

7,640

Referee

Akihiko Ikeuchi

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Machida Zelvia	42	26	9	7	79:35	+44	87	WWWWW
2	Jubilo Iwata	42	21	12	9	74:44	+30	75	WWDWL
3	Tokyo Verdy	42	21	12	9	57:31	+26	75	WWDWW
4	Shimizu S-Pulse	42	20	14	8	78:34	+44	74	DWLWW
5	Montedio Yamagata	42	21	4	17	64:54	+10	67	WWWWW
6	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	42	19	10	13	61:53	+8	67	LWWLD
7	V-Varen Nagasaki	42	18	11	13	70:56	+14	65	WWLDW
8	Ventforet Kofu	42	18	10	14	60:50	+10	64	LWWDD
9	Oita Trinita	42	17	11	14	54:56	-2	62	WDWDL
10	Fagiano Okayama	42	13	19	10	49:49	0	58	DLDDD
11	Thespa Gunma	42	14	15	13	44:44	0	57	LLLWL
12	Fujieda MYFC	42	14	10	18	61:72	-11	52	LDWLW
13	Blaublitz Akita	42	12	15	15	37:44	-7	51	DWLLL
14	Roasso Kumamoto	42	13	10	19	52:53	-1	49	WLWLL
15	Tokushima Vortis	42	10	19	13	43:53	-10	49	DDWLW
16	Vegalta Sendai	42	12	12	18	48:61	-13	48	LLDWD
17	Mito HollyHock	42	11	14	17	49:66	-17	47	DLLLD
18	Iwaki	42	12	11	19	45:69	-24	47	WLLLD
19	Tochigi	42	10	14	18	39:47	-8	44	LLDDL
20	Renofa Yamaguchi	42	10	14	18	37:67	-30	44	LLDDL
21	RB Omiya Ardija	42	11	6	25	37:71	-34	39	LLLWW
22	Zweigen Kanazawa	42	9	8	25	41:70	-29	35	DDLLL

• Promotion - Japan Championship
• Promotion - Japan. J-League Division 2 (Promotion - Play-off: Round of 4)
• Relegation - Japan. J-League Division 3

• The model expects 3.21 goals: 1.89 for Montedio Yamagata and 1.32 for V-Varen Nagasaki.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (10%), followed by 2–1 (10%).
• Corners: about 9 (5.2 — 3.8).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 13 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.43, 2nd — 1.78.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	96%	1.04
Over 1.5	90%	89%	83%	1.21
Over 2.5	70%	56%	62%	1.61
Over 3.5	40%	44%	40%	2.51
Over 4.5	30%	22%	22%	4.54

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (10), away team away (9). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Montedio Yamagata V-Varen Nagasaki

• 3 defeats in a row100%
• Winless in 3 matches100%
• Won 5 of 5 matches after scoring first100%
• Over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• First-half goal in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored over 0.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 2.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 11.5 corners in 6 of 8 matches75%
• Over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Montedio Yamagatamatches: 10 · 9V-Varen Nagasaki

3.3Avg match total3.1

100%10/10Over 0.5100%9/9

0%0/10Under 0.50%0/9

90%9/10Over 1.589%8/9

10%1/10Under 1.511%1/9

70%7/10Over 2.556%5/9

30%3/10Under 2.544%4/9

40%4/10Over 3.544%4/9

60%6/10Under 3.556%5/9

30%3/10Over 4.522%2/9

70%7/10Under 4.578%7/9

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Montedio YamagataV-Varen Nagasaki

50%5/10Scores first22%2/9

100%5/5…and wins100%2/2

0%0/5…and draws0%0/2

0%0/5…and loses0%0/2

60%3/5…and then concedes50%1/2

First to concede…

Overall

• • Montedio Yamagata opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • Montedio Yamagata avoided defeat after conceding first in 40% of such matches.
• • V-Varen Nagasaki opened the scoring in 22% of matches.
• • V-Varen Nagasaki avoided defeat after conceding first in 43% of such matches.

Montedio Yamagata				V-Varen Nagasaki
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	3	40%	1–15	22%	0	2
1	1	20%	16–30	67%	3	3
5	1	50%	31–45	44%	2	4
4	3	50%	46–60	33%	1	2
3	2	50%	61–75	56%	4	2
6	2	50%	76–90	44%	3	2
4	1	50%	37–HT	33%	2	3
1	0	10%	87–FT	33%	2	2

• • Montedio Yamagata scores most in 76–90: 6 of 21 goals (29%).
• • Montedio Yamagata concedes most in 1–15: 3 of 12 conceded.
• • Montedio Yamagata scores 43% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • V-Varen Nagasaki scores most in 61–75: 4 of 13 goals (31%).
• • V-Varen Nagasaki concedes most in 31–45: 4 of 15 conceded.
• • V-Varen Nagasaki scores 54% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Montedio YamagataV-Varen Nagasaki

4.9Corners won, avg3.2

4.4Corners conceded, avg5.5

9.3Match corners, avg8.7

2.67Corners in 1st half, avg1.33

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 3.33 goals per match on average.