Ilkeston — Guiseley 1:4: match report and statistics

Tournament

England. Premier League

Season

2023/2024

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Radcliffe	40	28	3	9	103:58	+45	87	LDWWW
2	Macclesfield Town	40	24	5	11	84:47	+37	77	LLWWW
3	Marine	40	23	7	10	87:44	+43	76	WWWWL
4	Rylands	40	21	12	7	65:42	+23	75	WLLWW
5	Worksop Town	40	21	7	12	72:49	+23	70	WWWLW
6	Hyde United	40	19	10	11	68:48	+20	67	WLWLL
7	Ashton United	40	19	10	11	73:63	+10	67	LLWLW
8	Gainsborough Trinity	40	19	6	15	66:63	+3	63	WDWWL
9	Lancaster City	40	18	8	14	60:62	-2	62	LWWWW
10	Guiseley	40	18	7	15	69:63	+6	61	LLWLL
11	Ilkeston	40	18	6	16	69:62	+7	60	LWWWW
12	Whitby Town	40	17	8	15	60:50	+10	56	WLWLL
13	Morpeth Town	40	14	8	18	76:81	-5	50	WLLWL
14	United of Manchester	40	15	4	21	55:77	-22	48	WLWLL
15	Matlock Town	40	14	5	21	62:77	-15	47	WWLLW
16	Bamber Bridge	40	12	11	17	63:82	-19	47	LWWLL
17	Workington	40	11	11	18	67:81	-14	44	WLLLL
18	Basford United	40	9	10	21	44:65	-21	37	WDLLW
19	Bradford Park Avenue	40	7	9	24	50:85	-35	30	LDWLD
20	Stafford Rangers	40	9	3	28	36:81	-45	30	LLLWL
21	Atherton Collieries	40	7	4	29	47:96	-49	25	LLLWL
22	Marske United	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0	LWWWL

• Promotion - England. National League North
• Promotion - England. Northern Premier League (Play-off)
• Relegation

• The model expects 3.33 goals: 2.06 for Ilkeston and 1.28 for Guiseley.
• Most likely score is 2–1 (10%), followed by 1–1 (9%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 31-45: 16 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.51, 2nd — 1.83.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	96%	1.04
Over 1.5	78%	89%	85%	1.18
Over 2.5	67%	44%	65%	1.55
Over 3.5	56%	44%	43%	2.35
Over 4.5	22%	22%	24%	4.12

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (9), away team away (9). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Ilkeston Guiseley

• Scored in 10 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 4 matches in a row100%
• Both teams scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Unbeaten in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored first in 8 of 10 matches80%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Ilkestonmatches: 9 · 9Guiseley

3.6Avg match total3.1

100%9/9Over 0.5100%9/9

0%0/9Under 0.50%0/9

78%7/9Over 1.589%8/9

22%2/9Under 1.511%1/9

67%6/9Over 2.544%4/9

33%3/9Under 2.556%5/9

56%5/9Over 3.544%4/9

44%4/9Under 3.556%5/9

22%2/9Over 4.522%2/9

78%7/9Under 4.578%7/9

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

IlkestonGuiseley

56%5/9Scores first78%7/9

80%4/5…and wins29%2/7

20%1/5…and draws43%3/7

0%0/5…and loses29%2/7

60%3/5…and then concedes71%5/7

First to concede…

Overall

• • Ilkeston opened the scoring in 56% of matches.
• • Ilkeston avoided defeat after conceding first in 25% of such matches.
• • Guiseley opened the scoring in 78% of matches.
• • Guiseley avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.

Ilkeston				Guiseley
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	2	44%	1–15	0%	0	0
2	2	33%	16–30	33%	3	0
2	4	56%	31–45	67%	4	6
4	0	33%	46–60	33%	0	3
5	2	67%	61–75	56%	3	4
5	2	56%	76–90	44%	1	4
1	4	44%	37–HT	44%	2	3
3	0	33%	87–FT	22%	0	2

• • Ilkeston scores most in 61–75: 5 of 20 goals (25%).
• • Ilkeston concedes most in 31–45: 4 of 12 conceded.
• • Ilkeston scores 50% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Guiseley scores most in 31–45: 4 of 11 goals (36%).
• • Guiseley concedes most in 31–45: 6 of 17 conceded.
• • Guiseley scores 36% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 4 · 2 goals per match on average.