Ashton United — Guiseley 1:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

England. Premier League

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Radcliffe	40	28	3	9	103:58	+45	87	LDWWW
2	Macclesfield Town	40	24	5	11	84:47	+37	77	LLWWW
3	Marine	40	23	7	10	87:44	+43	76	WWWWL
4	Rylands	40	21	12	7	65:42	+23	75	WLLWW
5	Worksop Town	40	21	7	12	72:49	+23	70	WWWLW
6	Hyde United	40	19	10	11	68:48	+20	67	WLWLL
7	Ashton United	40	19	10	11	73:63	+10	67	LLWLW
8	Gainsborough Trinity	40	19	6	15	66:63	+3	63	WDWWL
9	Lancaster City	40	18	8	14	60:62	-2	62	LWWWW
10	Guiseley	40	18	7	15	69:63	+6	61	LLWLL
11	Ilkeston	40	18	6	16	69:62	+7	60	LWWWW
12	Whitby Town	40	17	8	15	60:50	+10	56	WLWLL
13	Morpeth Town	40	14	8	18	76:81	-5	50	WLLWL
14	United of Manchester	40	15	4	21	55:77	-22	48	WLWLL
15	Matlock Town	40	14	5	21	62:77	-15	47	WWLLW
16	Bamber Bridge	40	12	11	17	63:82	-19	47	LWWLL
17	Workington	40	11	11	18	67:81	-14	44	WLLLL
18	Basford United	40	9	10	21	44:65	-21	37	WDLLW
19	Bradford Park Avenue	40	7	9	24	50:85	-35	30	LDWLD
20	Stafford Rangers	40	9	3	28	36:81	-45	30	LLLWL
21	Atherton Collieries	40	7	4	29	47:96	-49	25	LLLWL
22	Marske United	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0	LWWWL

• Promotion - England. National League North
• Promotion - England. Northern Premier League (Play-off)
• Relegation

• The model expects 3.5 goals: 1.8 for Ashton United and 1.7 for Guiseley.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (9%), followed by 2–1 (8%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 31-45: 16 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.6, 2nd — 1.9.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	90%	100%	97%	1.03
Over 1.5	90%	70%	86%	1.16
Over 2.5	80%	40%	68%	1.47
Over 3.5	50%	40%	46%	2.16
Over 4.5	30%	40%	27%	3.64

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (10), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Ashton United Guiseley

• Scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 9 of 9 matches100%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored under 2.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Won 4 of 5 matches after scoring first80%
• Over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Both teams scored in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Unbeaten in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Ashton Unitedmatches: 10 · 10Guiseley

3.8Avg match total3.2

90%9/10Over 0.5100%10/10

10%1/10Under 0.50%0/10

90%9/10Over 1.570%7/10

10%1/10Under 1.530%3/10

80%8/10Over 2.540%4/10

20%2/10Under 2.560%6/10

50%5/10Over 3.540%4/10

50%5/10Under 3.560%6/10

30%3/10Over 4.540%4/10

70%7/10Under 4.560%6/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Ashton UnitedGuiseley

33%3/9Scores first80%8/10

100%3/3…and wins63%5/8

0%0/3…and draws13%1/8

0%0/3…and loses25%2/8

67%2/3…and then concedes50%4/8

First to concede…

Overall

• • Ashton United opened the scoring in 33% of matches.
• • Ashton United avoided defeat after conceding first in 67% of such matches.
• • Guiseley opened the scoring in 80% of matches.
• • Guiseley avoided defeat after conceding first in 100% of such matches.

Ashton United				Guiseley
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
1	2	20%	1–15	10%	1	0
3	3	60%	16–30	50%	4	2
5	2	40%	31–45	50%	5	4
5	1	40%	46–60	30%	2	2
3	2	30%	61–75	50%	4	3
5	6	60%	76–90	40%	2	3
4	1	40%	37–HT	30%	3	1
3	2	40%	87–FT	30%	1	2

• • Ashton United scores most in 31–45: 5 of 22 goals (23%).
• • Ashton United concedes most in 76–90: 6 of 16 conceded.
• • Ashton United scores 36% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Guiseley scores most in 31–45: 5 of 18 goals (28%).
• • Guiseley concedes most in 31–45: 4 of 14 conceded.
• • Guiseley scores 33% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 3.17 goals per match on average.