Anguilla — Bonaire 0:3: match report and statistics

Tournament

CONCACAF Nations League

Season

2023/2024

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Saint Martin	4	4	0	0	20:1	+19	12	WWWW
2	Bonaire	4	2	0	2	6:6	0	6	LWWL
3	Anguilla	4	0	0	4	0:19	-19	0	LLLL

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Aruba	4	4	0	0	14:4	+10	12	WWWW
2	Cayman Islands	4	1	1	2	6:10	-4	4	LWLD
3	United States Virgin Islands	4	0	1	3	5:11	-6	1	LLLD

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Dominica	4	3	1	0	8:2	+6	10	WWDW
2	British Virgin Islands	4	1	2	1	7:6	+1	5	LDDW
3	Turks and Caicos Islands	4	0	1	3	3:10	-7	1	LDLL

Ranking of second-placed teams

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Bonaire	4	2	0	2	6:6	0	6	LWWL
2	British Virgin Islands	4	1	2	1	7:6	+1	5	LDDW
3	Cayman Islands	4	1	1	2	6:10	-4	4	LWLD

• Promotion - CONCACAF Nations League (League B)
• Ranking of second-placed teams

• The model expects 4.5 goals: 1 for Anguilla and 3.5 for Bonaire.
• Most likely score is 0–3 (8%), followed by 1–3 (8%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 31-45: 3 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 2.5, 2nd — 2.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	99%	1.01
Over 1.5	100%	100%	94%	1.07
Over 2.5	100%	100%	83%	1.21
Over 3.5	100%	0%	66%	1.52
Over 4.5	100%	0%	47%	2.14

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (1), away team away (1). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Anguillamatches: 1 · 1Bonaire

6.0Avg match total3.0

100%1/1Over 0.5100%1/1

0%0/1Under 0.50%0/1

100%1/1Over 1.5100%1/1

0%0/1Under 1.50%0/1

100%1/1Over 2.5100%1/1

0%0/1Under 2.50%0/1

100%1/1Over 3.50%0/1

0%0/1Under 3.5100%1/1

100%1/1Over 4.50%0/1

0%0/1Under 4.5100%1/1

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

AnguillaBonaire

0%0/1Scores first100%1/1

—…and wins0%0/1

—…and draws0%0/1

—…and loses100%1/1

—…and then concedes100%1/1

First to concede…

Overall

• • Anguilla opened the scoring in 0% of matches.
• • Anguilla avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Bonaire opened the scoring in 100% of matches.

Anguilla				Bonaire
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	1	100%	1–15	0%	0	0
0	1	100%	16–30	0%	0	0
0	3	100%	31–45	0%	0	0
0	0	0%	46–60	0%	0	0
0	1	100%	61–75	100%	1	1
0	0	0%	76–90	100%	0	1
0	2	100%	37–HT	0%	0	0
0	0	0%	87–FT	100%	0	1

• • Anguilla concedes most in 31–45: 3 of 6 conceded.
• • Bonaire scores most in 61–75: 1 of 1 goals (100%).
• • Bonaire concedes most in 61–75: 1 of 2 conceded.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.