Kenya — Seychelles 5:0: match report and statistics

• 64% Possession 36%
• 16 Total shots 6
• 7 Shots on target 3
• 6 Corners 3
• 2 Yellow cards 3
• 9 Shots off target 3
• 4 Offsides 2
• 16 Free kicks 19
• 28 Throw-ins 17
• 15 Fouls 14
• 3 Saves 2

Tournament

World Cup

Referee

Joseph Odey Ogabor

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Egypt	10	8	2	0	20:2	+18	26	WWDWW
2	Burkina Faso	10	6	3	1	23:8	+15	21	WWDWW
3	Sierra Leone	10	4	3	3	12:10	+2	15	WLWDL
4	Guinea-Bissau	10	2	4	4	8:10	-2	10	LLWDL
5	Ethiopia	10	2	3	5	9:14	-5	9	LWLLW
6	Djibouti	10	0	1	9	5:33	-28	1	LLLLL

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Senegal	10	7	3	0	22:3	+19	24	WWWWW
2	DR Congo	10	7	1	2	15:6	+9	22	WWLWW
3	Sudan	10	3	4	3	8:6	+2	13	LDLLD
4	Togo	10	1	5	4	5:10	-5	8	DLWLL
5	Mauritania	10	1	4	5	4:13	-9	7	LDDWL
6	South Sudan	10	0	5	5	3:19	-16	5	DLDLD

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	South Africa	10	5	3	2	15:9	+6	18	WDDWW
2	Nigeria	10	4	5	1	15:8	+7	17	WWDWD
3	Benin	10	5	2	3	12:11	+1	17	LWWWL
4	Lesotho	10	3	3	4	9:12	-3	12	WLLLD
5	Rwanda	10	3	2	5	5:9	-4	11	LLWLD
6	Zimbabwe	10	0	5	5	5:12	-7	5	LDLLD

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Cape Verde	10	7	2	1	16:8	+8	23	WDWWW
2	Cameroon	10	5	4	1	17:5	+12	19	DWLWW
3	Libya	10	4	4	2	12:10	+2	16	DDWWL
4	Angola	10	2	6	2	9:8	+1	12	DDWLL
5	Mauritius	10	1	3	6	7:17	-10	6	DLLLD
6	Eswatini	10	0	3	7	6:19	-13	3	LDLLD

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Morocco	8	8	0	0	22:2	+20	24	WWWWW
2	Niger	8	5	0	3	11:10	+1	15	WWWLL
3	Tanzania	8	3	1	4	6:7	-1	10	LLDLW
4	Zambia	8	3	0	5	10:10	0	9	LWLLL
5	Congo	8	0	1	7	4:24	-20	1	LLDLL
6	Eritrea	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Ivory Coast	10	8	2	0	25:0	+25	26	WWDWW
2	Gabon	10	8	1	1	22:9	+13	25	WWDWW
3	Republic of the Gambia	10	4	1	5	27:18	+9	13	WLWWL
4	Kenya	10	3	3	4	18:14	+4	12	LWWLL
5	Burundi	10	3	1	6	13:13	0	10	LLLLW
6	Seychelles	10	0	0	10	2:53	-51	0	LLLLL

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Algeria	10	8	1	1	24:8	+16	25	WWDWW
2	Uganda	10	6	0	4	14:9	+5	18	LWWWW
3	Mozambique	10	6	0	4	14:17	-3	18	WLWLL
4	Guinea	10	4	3	3	11:8	+3	15	DWDWL
5	Botswana	10	3	1	6	12:16	-4	10	DLLLW
6	Somalia	10	0	1	9	3:20	-17	1	LLLLL

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Tunisia	10	9	1	0	22:0	+22	28	WWWWW
2	Namibia	10	4	3	3	13:10	+3	15	LLWLD
3	Liberia	10	4	3	3	13:11	+2	15	DWDLW
4	Malawi	10	4	1	5	11:10	+1	13	LWDWL
5	Equatorial Guinea	10	3	2	5	8:15	-7	11	DLLWD
6	Sao Tome and Principe	10	1	0	9	5:26	-21	3	WLLLL

Group I

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Ghana	10	8	1	1	23:6	+17	25	WWWDW
2	Madagascar	10	6	1	3	17:12	+5	19	LWWWL
3	Mali	10	5	3	2	17:6	+11	18	WWLWD
4	Comoro Islands	10	5	0	5	12:13	-1	15	LLWLW
5	Central African Republic	10	2	2	6	11:24	-13	8	WLLLD
6	Chad	10	0	1	9	5:24	-19	1	LLLDL

Ranking of second-placed teams

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Gabon	8	6	1	1	15:9	+6	19	WWDWW
2	DR Congo	8	5	1	2	10:5	+5	16	WWLWW
3	Cameroon	8	4	3	1	14:5	+9	15	DWLWW
4	Nigeria	8	4	3	1	13:6	+7	15	WWDWD
5	Burkina Faso	8	4	3	1	13:7	+6	15	WWDWW
6	Niger	8	5	0	3	11:10	+1	15	WWWLL
7	Madagascar	8	4	1	3	11:11	0	13	LWWWL
8	Uganda	8	4	0	4	11:9	+2	12	LWWWW
9	Namibia	8	2	3	3	8:10	-2	9	LLWLD

• Promotion - World Cup (Promotion)
• Ranking of second-placed teams

• The model expects 2.88 goals: 1.94 for Kenya and 0.94 for Seychelles.
• Most likely score is 1–0 (11%), followed by 2–0 (11%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 16-30: 8 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.56, 2nd — 1.16.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	94%	1.06
Over 1.5	50%	88%	78%	1.28
Over 2.5	50%	75%	55%	1.82
Over 3.5	25%	50%	33%	3.07
Over 4.5	0%	25%	16%	6.06

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (4), away team away (8). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Kenya Seychelles

• Winless in 10 matches100%
• Scored in 6 matches in a row100%
• 3 defeats in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored under 1.5 in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Scored under 1.5 in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Lost 9 of 10 matches90%
• First-half goal in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Under 4.5 cards in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded over 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 matches83%

Based on recent matches: home team — 6, away team — 10

Kenyamatches: 4 · 8Seychelles

2.25Avg match total3.5

100%4/4Over 0.5100%8/8

0%0/4Under 0.50%0/8

50%2/4Over 1.588%7/8

50%2/4Under 1.513%1/8

50%2/4Over 2.575%6/8

50%2/4Under 2.525%2/8

25%1/4Over 3.550%4/8

75%3/4Under 3.550%4/8

0%0/4Over 4.525%2/8

100%4/4Under 4.575%6/8

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

KenyaSeychelles

75%3/4Scores first0%0/7

67%2/3…and wins—

0%0/3…and draws—

33%1/3…and loses—

33%1/3…and then concedes—

First to concede…

Overall

• • Kenya opened the scoring in 75% of matches.
• • Kenya avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Seychelles opened the scoring in 0% of matches.
• • Seychelles avoided defeat after conceding first in 14% of such matches.

Kenya				Seychelles
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	1	25%	1–15	38%	1	4
0	1	25%	16–30	63%	2	5
2	1	75%	31–45	13%	0	1
1	0	25%	46–60	25%	0	4
0	1	25%	61–75	38%	1	2
1	0	25%	76–90	50%	0	4
2	1	75%	37–HT	0%	0	0
0	0	0%	87–FT	0%	0	0

• • Kenya scores most in 31–45: 2 of 4 goals (50%).
• • Kenya concedes most in 1–15: 1 of 4 conceded.
• • Kenya scores 25% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Seychelles scores most in 16–30: 2 of 4 goals (50%).
• • Seychelles concedes most in 16–30: 5 of 20 conceded.
• • Seychelles scores 25% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

KenyaSeychelles

7.0Corners won, avg—

4.5Corners conceded, avg—

11.5Match corners, avg—

2.5Corners in 1st half, avg—

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Kenyaper matchSeychelles

0.91xG for—

1.43xG against—

12.0Shots—

13.8Shots against—

4.8Shots on target—

4.5On target against—

8%Conversion—

12.0Shots per goal—

15.0Fouls—

3.5Offsides—

• • Kenya scores 0.09 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Kenya concedes 0.18 per match fewer than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 4 · 3.5 goals per match on average.