Araz-Naxcıvan — Shamakhi 1:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

Premier League

Season

2024/2025

Attendance

80

Referee

Rauf Jabarov

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Qarabag	36	28	5	3	86:19	+67	89	WWWWD
2	Zira	36	23	5	8	59:27	+32	74	DWWWW
3	Araz-Naxcıvan	36	15	13	8	34:29	+5	58	WLDDD
4	Turan Tovuz	36	14	13	9	45:39	+6	55	WWLLD
5	Sabah Baku	36	10	18	8	50:46	+4	48	WDWDD
6	Neftchi Baku	36	10	13	13	39:49	-10	43	LWWDD
7	Shamakhi	36	9	9	18	32:46	-14	36	LLLDD
8	Sumqayit	36	9	6	21	31:53	-22	33	WLLLD
9	Kapaz	36	8	8	20	28:65	-37	32	LLWDL
10	Sabail	36	4	10	22	28:59	-31	22	LLLDD

• Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
• Promotion - UEFA Conference League (Qualification)
• Relegation - I-League

• The model expects 2.31 goals: 1.28 for Araz-Naxcıvan and 1.03 for Shamakhi.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (13%).
• Corners: about 9.3 (5.6 — 3.7).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 16-30: 9 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.19, 2nd — 1.12.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	86%	100%	90%	1.11
Over 1.5	43%	90%	67%	1.49
Over 2.5	29%	50%	41%	2.46
Over 3.5	14%	30%	20%	4.93
Over 4.5	0%	20%	8%	11.78

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (7), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Araz-Naxcıvan Shamakhi

• Under 2.5 in 6 matches in a row100%
• Winless in 5 matches100%
• Scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 2.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 3.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 9.5 corners in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Over 8.5 corners in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Under 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%
• At least one team failed to score in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Under 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Araz-Naxcıvanmatches: 7 · 10Shamakhi

1.72Avg match total2.9

86%6/7Over 0.5100%10/10

14%1/7Under 0.50%0/10

43%3/7Over 1.590%9/10

57%4/7Under 1.510%1/10

29%2/7Over 2.550%5/10

71%5/7Under 2.550%5/10

14%1/7Over 3.530%3/10

86%6/7Under 3.570%7/10

0%0/7Over 4.520%2/10

100%7/7Under 4.580%8/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Araz-NaxcıvanShamakhi

67%4/6Scores first50%5/10

75%3/4…and wins40%2/5

0%0/4…and draws20%1/5

25%1/4…and loses40%2/5

50%2/4…and then concedes60%3/5

First to concede…

Overall

• • Araz-Naxcıvan opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • Araz-Naxcıvan avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.
• • Shamakhi opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • Shamakhi avoided defeat after conceding first in 20% of such matches.

Araz-Naxcıvan				Shamakhi
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	0	0%	1–15	30%	2	3
1	1	29%	16–30	60%	4	3
1	1	14%	31–45	60%	4	2
0	0	0%	46–60	30%	1	3
2	1	29%	61–75	40%	1	3
2	3	57%	76–90	30%	0	3
0	1	14%	37–HT	60%	4	2
1	1	29%	87–FT	10%	0	1

• • Araz-Naxcıvan scores most in 61–75: 2 of 6 goals (33%).
• • Araz-Naxcıvan concedes most in 76–90: 3 of 6 conceded.
• • Araz-Naxcıvan scores 67% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Shamakhi scores most in 16–30: 4 of 12 goals (33%).
• • Shamakhi concedes most in 1–15: 3 of 17 conceded.
• • Shamakhi scores 8% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Araz-NaxcıvanShamakhi

3.4Corners won, avg4.5

2.8Corners conceded, avg7.8

6.2Match corners, avg12.3

1.8Corners in 1st half, avg2.0

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 0.83 goals per match on average.