Neftchi Baku — Araz-Naxcıvan 1:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

Premier League

Season

2024/2025

Attendance

1,000

Referee

Inqilab Mammadov

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Qarabag	36	28	5	3	86:19	+67	89	WWWWD
2	Zira	36	23	5	8	59:27	+32	74	DWWWW
3	Araz-Naxcıvan	36	15	13	8	34:29	+5	58	WLDDD
4	Turan Tovuz	36	14	13	9	45:39	+6	55	WWLLD
5	Sabah Baku	36	10	18	8	50:46	+4	48	WDWDD
6	Neftchi Baku	36	10	13	13	39:49	-10	43	LWWDD
7	Shamakhi	36	9	9	18	32:46	-14	36	LLLDD
8	Sumqayit	36	9	6	21	31:53	-22	33	WLLLD
9	Kapaz	36	8	8	20	28:65	-37	32	LLWDL
10	Sabail	36	4	10	22	28:59	-31	22	LLLDD

• Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
• Promotion - UEFA Conference League (Qualification)
• Relegation - I-League

• The model expects 1.8 goals: 0.8 for Neftchi Baku and 1 for Araz-Naxcıvan.
• Most likely score is 0–0 (17%), followed by 0–1 (17%).
• Corners: about 6.5 (3.2 — 3.3).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 9 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 0.85, 2nd — 0.95.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	90%	83%	1.20
Over 1.5	60%	40%	54%	1.86
Over 2.5	40%	10%	27%	3.71
Over 3.5	10%	10%	11%	9.20
Over 4.5	0%	0%	4%	27.47

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (10), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Neftchi Baku Araz-Naxcıvan

• Winless in 7 matches100%
• Both teams scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 10.5 corners in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Under 9.5 corners in 4 of 5 matches80%
• Under 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Unbeaten in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Over 3.5 cards in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Under 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Neftchi Bakumatches: 10 · 10Araz-Naxcıvan

2.1Avg match total1.5

100%10/10Over 0.590%9/10

0%0/10Under 0.510%1/10

60%6/10Over 1.540%4/10

40%4/10Under 1.560%6/10

40%4/10Over 2.510%1/10

60%6/10Under 2.590%9/10

10%1/10Over 3.510%1/10

90%9/10Under 3.590%9/10

0%0/10Over 4.50%0/10

100%10/10Under 4.5100%10/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Neftchi BakuAraz-Naxcıvan

60%6/10Scores first56%5/9

67%4/6…and wins100%5/5

33%2/6…and draws0%0/5

0%0/6…and loses0%0/5

67%4/6…and then concedes0%0/5

First to concede…

Overall

• • Neftchi Baku opened the scoring in 60% of matches.
• • Neftchi Baku avoided defeat after conceding first in 25% of such matches.
• • Araz-Naxcıvan opened the scoring in 56% of matches.
• • Araz-Naxcıvan avoided defeat after conceding first in 25% of such matches.

Neftchi Baku				Araz-Naxcıvan
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
3	0	20%	1–15	20%	1	2
2	3	50%	16–30	20%	2	0
1	1	20%	31–45	20%	1	1
0	3	20%	46–60	20%	2	0
1	0	10%	61–75	30%	2	2
3	4	50%	76–90	20%	1	1
1	1	20%	37–HT	20%	1	1
2	2	30%	87–FT	0%	0	0

• • Neftchi Baku scores most in 1–15: 3 of 10 goals (30%).
• • Neftchi Baku concedes most in 76–90: 4 of 11 conceded.
• • Neftchi Baku scores 40% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Araz-Naxcıvan scores most in 16–30: 2 of 9 goals (22%).
• • Araz-Naxcıvan concedes most in 1–15: 2 of 6 conceded.
• • Araz-Naxcıvan scores 33% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Neftchi BakuAraz-Naxcıvan

3.0Corners won, avg3.3

3.3Corners conceded, avg3.4

6.3Match corners, avg6.7

1.33Corners in 1st half, avg2.43

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 2 goals per match on average.