Shamakhi — Araz-Naxcıvan 0:1: match report and statistics

• 41% Possession 59%
• 5 Total shots 8
• 1 Shots on target 2
• 2 Corners 1
• 4 Yellow cards 3
• 4 Shots off target 6
• 1 Saves 1

Tournament

Premier League

Season

2024/2025

Attendance

700

Referee

Inqilab Mammadov

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Qarabag	36	28	5	3	86:19	+67	89	WWWWD
2	Zira	36	23	5	8	59:27	+32	74	DWWWW
3	Araz-Naxcıvan	36	15	13	8	34:29	+5	58	WLDDD
4	Turan Tovuz	36	14	13	9	45:39	+6	55	WWLLD
5	Sabah Baku	36	10	18	8	50:46	+4	48	WDWDD
6	Neftchi Baku	36	10	13	13	39:49	-10	43	LWWDD
7	Shamakhi	36	9	9	18	32:46	-14	36	LLLDD
8	Sumqayit	36	9	6	21	31:53	-22	33	WLLLD
9	Kapaz	36	8	8	20	28:65	-37	32	LLWDL
10	Sabail	36	4	10	22	28:59	-31	22	LLLDD

• Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
• Promotion - UEFA Conference League (Qualification)
• Relegation - I-League

• The model expects 1.68 goals: 0.95 for Shamakhi and 0.73 for Araz-Naxcıvan.
• Most likely score is 0–0 (19%), followed by 1–0 (18%).
• Corners: about 8.7 (3.9 — 4.8).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 31-45: 10 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 0.95, 2nd — 0.73.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	90%	78%	81%	1.23
Over 1.5	50%	56%	50%	2.00
Over 2.5	30%	11%	24%	4.21
Over 3.5	10%	11%	9%	11.08
Over 4.5	0%	0%	3%	35.26

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (10), away team away (9). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Shamakhi Araz-Naxcıvan

• Under 2.5 in 7 matches in a row100%
• Both teams scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• Winless in 4 matches100%
• Winless in 3 matches100%
• Under 9.5 corners in 8 of 8 matches100%
• Over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• First-half goal in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 3.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Unbeaten in 8 of 10 matches80%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Shamakhimatches: 10 · 9Araz-Naxcıvan

1.8Avg match total1.56

90%9/10Over 0.578%7/9

10%1/10Under 0.522%2/9

50%5/10Over 1.556%5/9

50%5/10Under 1.544%4/9

30%3/10Over 2.511%1/9

70%7/10Under 2.589%8/9

10%1/10Over 3.511%1/9

90%9/10Under 3.589%8/9

0%0/10Over 4.50%0/9

100%10/10Under 4.5100%9/9

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

ShamakhiAraz-Naxcıvan

67%6/9Scores first14%1/7

67%4/6…and wins100%1/1

17%1/6…and draws0%0/1

17%1/6…and loses0%0/1

67%4/6…and then concedes0%0/1

First to concede…

Overall

• • Shamakhi opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • Shamakhi avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Araz-Naxcıvan opened the scoring in 14% of matches.
• • Araz-Naxcıvan avoided defeat after conceding first in 33% of such matches.

Shamakhi				Araz-Naxcıvan
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	0	0%	1–15	33%	2	3
2	1	30%	16–30	0%	0	0
3	4	60%	31–45	33%	1	2
2	1	30%	46–60	22%	1	1
2	1	30%	61–75	22%	1	2
0	2	20%	76–90	11%	0	1
1	3	30%	37–HT	22%	1	1
0	2	20%	87–FT	0%	0	0

• • Shamakhi scores most in 31–45: 3 of 9 goals (33%).
• • Shamakhi concedes most in 31–45: 4 of 9 conceded.
• • Shamakhi scores 22% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Araz-Naxcıvan scores most in 1–15: 2 of 5 goals (40%).
• • Araz-Naxcıvan concedes most in 1–15: 3 of 9 conceded.
• • Araz-Naxcıvan scores 20% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

ShamakhiAraz-Naxcıvan

3.8Corners won, avg4.2

5.4Corners conceded, avg4.0

9.1Match corners, avg8.2

1.25Corners in 1st half, avg2.0

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 1.83 goals per match on average.