Guairena — Sportivo Carapegua 1:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

Paraguay. Division Intermedia

Season

2024

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Recoleta	30	19	8	3	57:20	+37	65	DDWWW
2	Atletico Tembetary	30	19	5	6	46:24	+22	62	LDWWW
3	Sportivo Carapegua	30	17	7	6	45:27	+18	58	WWWDW
4	Club Sportivo San Lorenzo	30	12	10	8	35:31	+4	46	DWWDL
5	Resistencia SC	30	13	6	11	35:35	0	45	WWWDW
6	Encarnacion	30	12	8	10	43:39	+4	44	DDLDL
7	Deportivo Santaní	30	11	9	10	35:33	+2	42	LWDDW
8	Club Rubio Nu	30	11	9	10	33:35	-2	42	WLWDD
9	Guairena	30	10	11	9	30:25	+5	38	LWDDL
10	12 De Junio Villa Hayes	30	10	8	12	35:35	0	38	WLLLD
11	Independiente FBC	30	10	8	12	33:37	-4	38	LDWWW
12	Club Martín Ledesma	30	8	12	10	28:35	-7	36	WLLDL
13	Club Fernando de la Mora	30	8	11	11	31:33	-2	35	DWLDD
14	Club Atletico 3 de Febrero	30	6	11	13	24:37	-13	29	WLLDL
15	Pastoreo	30	6	5	19	28:50	-22	23	LLLLL
16	Atletico Colegiales	30	2	4	24	28:70	-42	10	LLLLL

• Promotion - First Division

• The model expects 2.12 goals: 1.12 for Guairena and 1 for Sportivo Carapegua.
• Most likely score is 1–0 (13%), followed by 1–1 (13%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 1-15: 8 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.02, 2nd — 1.1.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	83%	70%	88%	1.14
Over 1.5	67%	50%	62%	1.60
Over 2.5	50%	40%	35%	2.82
Over 3.5	17%	20%	16%	6.09
Over 4.5	17%	10%	6%	15.72

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (6), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Guairena Sportivo Carapegua

• Winless in 4 matches100%
• Scored under 2.5 in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 8 of 8 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 8 of 8 matches100%
• Scored first in 7 of 8 matches88%
• Won 6 of 7 matches after scoring first86%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Unbeaten in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Unbeaten in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches70%
• First-half goal in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Guairenamatches: 6 · 10Sportivo Carapegua

2.33Avg match total1.9

83%5/6Over 0.570%7/10

17%1/6Under 0.530%3/10

67%4/6Over 1.550%5/10

33%2/6Under 1.550%5/10

50%3/6Over 2.540%4/10

50%3/6Under 2.560%6/10

17%1/6Over 3.520%2/10

83%5/6Under 3.580%8/10

17%1/6Over 4.510%1/10

83%5/6Under 4.590%9/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

GuairenaSportivo Carapegua

60%3/5Scores first57%4/7

67%2/3…and wins100%4/4

33%1/3…and draws0%0/4

0%0/3…and loses0%0/4

67%2/3…and then concedes25%1/4

First to concede…

Overall

• • Guairena opened the scoring in 60% of matches.
• • Guairena avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.
• • Sportivo Carapegua opened the scoring in 57% of matches.
• • Sportivo Carapegua avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.

Guairena				Sportivo Carapegua
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
1	2	33%	1–15	30%	2	3
1	0	17%	16–30	10%	1	0
4	0	67%	31–45	10%	0	1
2	0	33%	46–60	20%	3	0
0	2	33%	61–75	40%	3	1
0	2	33%	76–90	50%	1	4
2	0	33%	37–HT	10%	0	1
0	1	17%	87–FT	30%	1	2

• • Guairena scores most in 31–45: 4 of 8 goals (50%).
• • Guairena concedes most in 1–15: 2 of 6 conceded.
• • Guairena scores 0% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Sportivo Carapegua scores most in 46–60: 3 of 10 goals (30%).
• • Sportivo Carapegua concedes most in 76–90: 4 of 9 conceded.
• • Sportivo Carapegua scores 40% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.