Greenville Triumph — Chattanooga Red Wolves 3:1: match report and statistics

• 1.49 Expected goals (xG) 0.22
• 66% Possession 34%
• 15 Total shots 6
• 6 Shots on target 1
• 4 Big Chances 1
• 6 Corners 5
• 79 (304/383)Assists(112/201) 56
• 2 Yellow cards 3
• 0.87 xG on target (xGOT) 0.51
• 6 Shots off target 3
• 3 Shots blocked 2
• 12 Shots from inside the penalty area 3
• 3 Shots from outside the penalty area 3
• 2 Hit the woodwork 0
• 3 Goals 0
• 28 Touches in opposition box 6
• 0 Accurate through passes 0
• 2 Offsides 2
• 20 Free kicks 12
• 51 (27/53)Long Balls(27/73) 37
• 66 (52/79)Passes in final third(27/66) 41
• 34 (11/32)Crosses(2/14) 14
• 0.72 Expected assists (xA) 0.13
• 24 Throw-ins 22
• 12 Fouls 20
• 75 (9/12)Tackles(15/19) 79
• 57 Duels won 57
• 25 Clearances 41
• 6 Steals 4
• 1 Errors leading to shot 0
• 1 Errors leading to goal 0
• 0 Saves 3
• 0.51 xGOT faced 0.87
• -0.54 Goals prevented -2.36

Tournament

USA. USL League One

Season

2025

Attendance

1,705

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	One Knoxville	30	16	9	5	43:26	+17	57	WWWLW
2	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	15	10	5	42:30	+12	55	WWLDL
3	Spokane Velocity	30	14	9	7	41:35	+6	51	DLWDW
4	Naples	30	13	8	9	40:32	+8	47	WLLLW
5	Union Omaha	30	13	7	10	51:39	+12	46	DWDWW
6	South Georgia Tormenta	30	13	6	11	55:47	+8	45	WWDWW
7	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	11	12	7	48:38	+10	45	DWDLL
8	Charlotte Independence	30	10	7	13	45:50	-5	37	LLWLL
9	AV Alta	30	8	12	10	42:47	-5	36	DWLDL
10	Forward Madison	30	8	11	11	31:43	-12	35	LLWWW
11	Greenville Triumph	30	8	8	14	38:43	-5	32	LLDDW
12	Texoma FC	30	7	9	14	35:55	-20	30	LLWDL
13	Richmond Kickers	30	8	5	17	43:53	-10	29	WLLWL
14	Westchester SC	30	5	9	16	43:59	-16	24	LDWLL

• Promotion - USA. USL League One (Play-off)

• The model expects 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Greenville Triumph and 1.2 for Chattanooga Red Wolves.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
• Corners: about 8.6 (5.1 — 3.5).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 31-45: 7 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.3, 2nd — 1.1.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	80%	91%	1.10
Over 1.5	50%	80%	69%	1.45
Over 2.5	25%	60%	43%	2.32
Over 3.5	25%	40%	22%	4.52
Over 4.5	0%	20%	10%	10.43

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (4), away team away (5). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Greenville Triumph Chattanooga Red Wolves

• Winless in 8 matches100%
• Unbeaten in 7 matches100%
• Both teams scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 5 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• Under 2.5 in 4 matches in a row100%
• Unbeaten in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 3.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 2.5 goals in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Scored under 1.5 in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Under 9.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%

Based on recent matches: home team — 9, away team — 10

Greenville Triumphmatches: 4 · 5Chattanooga Red Wolves

2.0Avg match total2.8

100%4/4Over 0.580%4/5

0%0/4Under 0.520%1/5

50%2/4Over 1.580%4/5

50%2/4Under 1.520%1/5

25%1/4Over 2.560%3/5

75%3/4Under 2.540%2/5

25%1/4Over 3.540%2/5

75%3/4Under 3.560%3/5

0%0/4Over 4.520%1/5

100%4/4Under 4.580%4/5

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Greenville TriumphChattanooga Red Wolves

25%1/4Scores first75%3/4

100%1/1…and wins33%1/3

0%0/1…and draws33%1/3

0%0/1…and loses33%1/3

0%0/1…and then concedes100%3/3

First to concede…

Overall

• • Greenville Triumph opened the scoring in 25% of matches.
• • Greenville Triumph avoided defeat after conceding first in 67% of such matches.
• • Chattanooga Red Wolves opened the scoring in 75% of matches.
• • Chattanooga Red Wolves avoided defeat after conceding first in 100% of such matches.

Greenville Triumph				Chattanooga Red Wolves
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	1	25%	1–15	40%	2	1
0	1	25%	16–30	0%	0	0
1	1	50%	31–45	40%	2	3
0	0	0%	46–60	20%	1	0
1	0	25%	61–75	20%	1	0
2	1	50%	76–90	60%	1	3
1	1	50%	37–HT	40%	1	2
0	0	0%	87–FT	20%	0	1

• • Greenville Triumph scores most in 76–90: 2 of 4 goals (50%).
• • Greenville Triumph concedes most in 1–15: 1 of 4 conceded.
• • Greenville Triumph scores 75% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Chattanooga Red Wolves scores most in 1–15: 2 of 7 goals (29%).
• • Chattanooga Red Wolves concedes most in 31–45: 3 of 7 conceded.
• • Chattanooga Red Wolves scores 29% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Greenville TriumphChattanooga Red Wolves

4.8Corners won, avg4.5

2.5Corners conceded, avg5.5

7.3Match corners, avg10.0

2.25Corners in 1st half, avg1.0

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Greenville Triumphper matchChattanooga Red Wolves

1.54xG for1.64

1.1xG against1.09

15.5Shots13.7

8.8Shots against8.7

5.0Shots on target4.3

4.0On target against2.5

6%Conversion10%

15.5Shots per goal9.8

13.3Fouls11.8

1.75Offsides2.5

• • Greenville Triumph scores 0.54 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Greenville Triumph concedes 0.1 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Chattanooga Red Wolves scores 0.24 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Chattanooga Red Wolves concedes 0.31 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 4.17 goals per match on average.