Flora Tallinn U21 — Nomme United 1:5: match report and statistics

Tournament

Estonia. Esiliiga

Season

2025

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Nomme United	36	30	2	4	125:27	+98	92	WWWWW
2	Viimsi JK	36	24	6	6	83:27	+56	78	WWWWL
3	Tartu JK Welco Elekter	36	18	9	9	76:56	+20	63	WWWLD
4	Elva	36	17	7	12	62:59	+3	58	LWLLW
5	Flora Tallinn U21	36	13	9	14	61:56	+5	48	LLLWL
6	Levadia U21	36	12	9	15	62:67	-5	45	WDWDL
7	Nomme Kalju U21	36	13	6	17	56:79	-23	45	LDWLL
8	Tallinn	36	11	7	18	61:75	-14	40	LLWLL
9	Tallinna Kalev U21	36	5	12	19	53:96	-43	27	LLDLW
10	Tammeka Tartu U21	36	3	1	32	40:137	-97	10	WLLLL

• Promotion - Jupiler League
• Promotion - Higher League (Promotion)
• Estonia. Esiliiga (Relegation. Play-off)
• Relegation - Estonia. Esiliiga B

• The model expects 3.45 goals: 1.35 for Flora Tallinn U21 and 2.1 for Nomme United.
• Most likely score is 1–2 (9%), followed by 1–1 (9%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 19 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.35, 2nd — 2.1.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	90%	100%	97%	1.03
Over 1.5	70%	90%	86%	1.16
Over 2.5	50%	80%	67%	1.49
Over 3.5	40%	70%	45%	2.21
Over 4.5	30%	40%	27%	3.77

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (10), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Flora Tallinn U21 Nomme United

• Scored in 10 matches in a row100%
• Won 9 of 9 matches after scoring first100%
• Won 9 of 10 matches90%
• Unbeaten in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored first in 9 of 10 matches90%
• At least one team failed to score in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 3.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored over 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 2.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Flora Tallinn U21matches: 10 · 10Nomme United

3.0Avg match total3.9

90%9/10Over 0.5100%10/10

10%1/10Under 0.50%0/10

70%7/10Over 1.590%9/10

30%3/10Under 1.510%1/10

50%5/10Over 2.580%8/10

50%5/10Under 2.520%2/10

40%4/10Over 3.570%7/10

60%6/10Under 3.530%3/10

30%3/10Over 4.540%4/10

70%7/10Under 4.560%6/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Flora Tallinn U21Nomme United

44%4/9Scores first80%8/10

75%3/4…and wins100%8/8

25%1/4…and draws0%0/8

0%0/4…and loses0%0/8

25%1/4…and then concedes63%5/8

First to concede…

Overall

• • Flora Tallinn U21 opened the scoring in 44% of matches.
• • Flora Tallinn U21 avoided defeat after conceding first in 40% of such matches.
• • Nomme United opened the scoring in 80% of matches.
• • Nomme United avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.

Flora Tallinn U21				Nomme United
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	2	40%	1–15	30%	3	0
3	0	30%	16–30	60%	5	2
3	2	50%	31–45	40%	5	0
3	3	40%	46–60	40%	2	3
2	2	30%	61–75	50%	7	1
5	3	60%	76–90	80%	8	3
3	1	40%	37–HT	40%	5	0
1	1	20%	87–FT	30%	2	1

• • Flora Tallinn U21 scores most in 76–90: 5 of 18 goals (28%).
• • Flora Tallinn U21 concedes most in 46–60: 3 of 12 conceded.
• • Flora Tallinn U21 scores 39% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Nomme United scores most in 76–90: 8 of 30 goals (27%).
• • Nomme United concedes most in 46–60: 3 of 9 conceded.
• • Nomme United scores 50% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 4.17 goals per match on average.