Guiseley — Ilkeston 1:4: match report and statistics

Tournament

England. Premier League

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Hebburn Town	40	23	10	7	75:41	+34	79	WWWWW
2	Hednesford Town	40	22	11	7	62:35	+27	77	DWWWW
3	United of Manchester	40	21	9	10	65:41	+24	72	LDLWL
4	Rylands	40	18	13	9	59:42	+17	67	LWWWD
5	Stockton Town	40	18	12	10	62:50	+12	63	WDDLL
6	Lancaster City	40	17	11	12	56:45	+11	62	WDWDW
7	Gainsborough Trinity	40	16	11	13	50:45	+5	59	LLLWL
8	Leek Town	40	17	7	16	50:52	-2	58	WWWWW
9	Cleethorpes Town	40	14	13	13	56:47	+9	55	DLLDW
10	Ashton United	40	14	11	15	47:54	-7	53	DDWLW
11	Ilkeston	40	15	7	18	52:54	-2	52	WDWLD
12	Bamber Bridge	40	14	8	18	52:52	0	50	LLLDL
13	Guiseley	40	13	9	18	46:56	-10	48	DLLDW
14	Warrington Town	40	12	12	16	43:63	-20	48	LLLDL
15	Hyde United	40	11	14	15	58:63	-5	47	WWDWD
16	Rushall Olympic	40	12	11	17	48:61	-13	47	LWWWL
17	Whitby Town	40	10	13	17	43:55	-12	43	DLDLL
18	Workington	40	10	13	17	43:58	-15	43	LWLDL
19	Prescot Cables	40	9	15	16	40:50	-10	42	WWLLL
20	Morpeth Town	40	12	6	22	38:54	-16	42	WLLWL
21	Stocksbridge Park Steels	40	8	12	20	38:65	-27	36	LDLLL

• Promotion - England. National League North
• Promotion - England. Northern Premier League (Play-off)
• Relegation

• The model expects 2.36 goals: 1.38 for Guiseley and 0.98 for Ilkeston.
• Most likely score is 1–0 (13%), followed by 1–1 (13%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 1-15: 6 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.3, 2nd — 1.19.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	91%	1.10
Over 1.5	50%	86%	68%	1.46
Over 2.5	33%	57%	42%	2.37
Over 3.5	33%	14%	21%	4.67
Over 4.5	0%	0%	9%	10.93

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (6), away team away (7). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Guiseley Ilkeston

• 3 wins in a row100%
• Unbeaten in 3 matches100%
• Scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 8 of 8 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored under 2.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 7 of 9 matches78%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Guiseleymatches: 6 · 7Ilkeston

2.16Avg match total2.57

100%6/6Over 0.5100%7/7

0%0/6Under 0.50%0/7

50%3/6Over 1.586%6/7

50%3/6Under 1.514%1/7

33%2/6Over 2.557%4/7

67%4/6Under 2.543%3/7

33%2/6Over 3.514%1/7

67%4/6Under 3.586%6/7

0%0/6Over 4.50%0/7

100%6/6Under 4.5100%7/7

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

GuiseleyIlkeston

40%2/5Scores first60%3/5

100%2/2…and wins67%2/3

0%0/2…and draws0%0/3

0%0/2…and loses33%1/3

50%1/2…and then concedes100%3/3

First to concede…

Overall

• • Guiseley opened the scoring in 40% of matches.
• • Guiseley avoided defeat after conceding first in 33% of such matches.
• • Ilkeston opened the scoring in 60% of matches.
• • Ilkeston avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.

Guiseley				Ilkeston
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	2	50%	1–15	29%	1	1
2	0	33%	16–30	14%	1	0
1	1	17%	31–45	14%	1	0
1	0	17%	46–60	14%	1	1
1	1	33%	61–75	14%	0	1
1	0	17%	76–90	43%	1	4
1	1	17%	37–HT	0%	0	0
0	0	0%	87–FT	29%	0	3

• • Guiseley scores most in 1–15: 2 of 8 goals (25%).
• • Guiseley concedes most in 1–15: 2 of 4 conceded.
• • Guiseley scores 25% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Ilkeston scores most in 1–15: 1 of 5 goals (20%).
• • Ilkeston concedes most in 76–90: 4 of 7 conceded.
• • Ilkeston scores 20% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 4 · 3 goals per match on average.