Kelty Hearts — Heart of Midlothian II 0:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

Challenge Cup

Season

2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Inverness	6	6	0	0	26:4	+22	18	WWWWW
2	Stenhousemuir	6	6	0	0	18:2	+16	18	WWWWW
3	Montrose	6	5	1	0	18:9	+9	16	DWWWW
4	East Fife	6	4	1	1	17:9	+8	13	WWLDW
5	Stranraer	6	4	1	1	12:6	+6	13	WDWLW
6	East Kilbride	6	4	0	2	13:11	+2	12	WWLLW
7	Forfar Athletic	6	4	0	2	10:8	+2	12	WLWWL
8	Edinburgh FC	6	4	0	2	11:10	+1	12	LLWWW
9	Spartans	6	3	2	1	14:8	+6	11	WLWWD
10	Elgin City	6	3	2	1	11:9	+2	11	WDDWW
11	Dumbarton	6	3	2	1	10:8	+2	11	LWDDW
12	Annan Athletic	6	3	1	2	15:10	+5	10	WWDLL
13	Alloa Athletic	6	3	1	2	17:14	+3	10	DWWWL
14	Kelty Hearts	6	3	1	2	9:6	+3	10	LWDWL
15	Clyde	6	3	1	2	14:12	+2	10	DWWWL
16	Queen of the South	6	3	1	2	12:10	+2	10	WDLWW
17	Hamilton Academical	6	3	1	2	13:8	+5	9	WLWWL
18	Stirling Albion	6	3	0	3	9:9	0	9	WWLLW
19	Cove Rangers	6	2	2	2	9:6	+3	8	LWDLW
20	Peterhead	6	2	2	2	10:10	0	8	LLDWD
21	Celtic II	6	2	0	4	12:15	-3	6	LLLLW
22	Heart of Midlothian II	6	2	0	4	9:14	-5	6	WLWLL
23	Hibernian II	6	1	2	3	11:14	-3	5	DWDLL
24	St. Mirren II	6	1	1	4	9:15	-6	4	LLLDW
25	Dundee United II	6	1	0	5	5:18	-13	3	LLLLL
26	Aberdeen II	6	0	1	5	9:20	-11	1	LDLLL
27	Motherwell II	6	0	1	5	2:17	-15	1	LLLLL
28	Rangers II	6	0	0	6	6:16	-10	0	LLLLL
29	Kilmarnock II	6	0	0	6	3:19	-16	0	LLLLL
30	Dundee II	6	0	0	6	4:21	-17	0	LLLLL

• Promotion - Challenge Cup (Play-off: Round of 32)

• The model expects 2.75 goals: 1.5 for Kelty Hearts and 1.25 for Heart of Midlothian II.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (10%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 61-75: 5 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 0.9, 2nd — 1.87.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	94%	1.07
Over 1.5	67%	67%	76%	1.32
Over 2.5	50%	67%	52%	1.93
Over 3.5	0%	67%	30%	3.37
Over 4.5	0%	33%	14%	6.91

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (6), away team away (3). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Kelty Hearts Heart of Midlothian II

• Over 2.5 in 5 matches in a row100%
• Winless in 4 matches100%
• Winless in 3 matches100%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 6 of 7 matches86%
• Scored under 2.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Under 3.5 cards in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Over 2.5 goals in 5 of 7 matches71%
• Scored over 0.5 in 5 of 7 matches71%
• First-half goal in 5 of 7 matches71%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 7

Kelty Heartsmatches: 6 · 3Heart of Midlothian II

2.17Avg match total3.3

100%6/6Over 0.5100%3/3

0%0/6Under 0.50%0/3

67%4/6Over 1.567%2/3

33%2/6Under 1.533%1/3

50%3/6Over 2.567%2/3

50%3/6Under 2.533%1/3

0%0/6Over 3.567%2/3

100%6/6Under 3.533%1/3

0%0/6Over 4.533%1/3

100%6/6Under 4.567%2/3

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Kelty HeartsHeart of Midlothian II

40%2/5Scores first0%0/2

100%2/2…and wins—

0%0/2…and draws—

0%0/2…and loses—

0%0/2…and then concedes—

First to concede…

Overall

• • Kelty Hearts opened the scoring in 40% of matches.
• • Kelty Hearts avoided defeat after conceding first in 33% of such matches.
• • Heart of Midlothian II opened the scoring in 0% of matches.
• • Heart of Midlothian II avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.

Kelty Hearts				Heart of Midlothian II
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	1	17%	1–15	0%	0	0
1	1	33%	16–30	33%	0	1
0	1	17%	31–45	33%	0	1
1	1	33%	46–60	0%	0	0
2	0	33%	61–75	67%	2	1
2	1	50%	76–90	33%	1	0
0	1	17%	37–HT	0%	0	0
1	1	33%	87–FT	0%	0	0

• • Kelty Hearts scores most in 61–75: 2 of 6 goals (33%).
• • Kelty Hearts concedes most in 1–15: 1 of 5 conceded.
• • Kelty Hearts scores 67% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Heart of Midlothian II scores most in 61–75: 2 of 3 goals (67%).
• • Heart of Midlothian II concedes most in 16–30: 1 of 3 conceded.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Kelty HeartsHeart of Midlothian II

7.0Corners won, avg—

6.0Corners conceded, avg—

13.0Match corners, avg—

6.0Corners in 1st half, avg—

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.