Emelec — Tecnico Universitario 2:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

Ecuador. Serie A

Season

2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	73:33	+40	74	WWLDW
2	Universidad Catolica Quito	30	14	9	7	51:27	+24	51	WWDDW
3	Club Social y Deportivo Macara	30	15	6	9	41:33	+8	51	WLWWL
4	SD Aucas	30	14	8	8	33:28	+5	50	DDDWW
5	Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito	30	13	7	10	31:24	+7	46	DWDLW
6	Barcelona Sporting Club	30	11	11	8	32:25	+7	44	DDWLW
7	Libertad Loja	30	11	8	11	33:34	-1	41	LWDLW
8	Leones Del Norte	30	10	9	11	31:32	-1	39	LDWLL
9	Guayaquil City	30	10	9	11	33:36	-3	39	WLLWW
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	25:34	-9	39	LWDWL
11	Mushuc Runa	30	9	11	10	35:38	-3	38	LDDWD
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	25:37	-12	36	DLWLD
13	Orense Sporting Club	30	9	6	15	36:47	-11	33	LWLLL
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	28:42	-14	32	WLLWL
15	Delfin	30	7	7	16	19:31	-12	28	DLWLL
16	Manta	30	5	6	19	17:42	-25	21	DLLWL

• Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship - Play-off)
• Promotion - Liga Pro (Places)
• Liga Pro (Relegation Group)

• The model expects 2.05 goals: 1.25 for Emelec and 0.8 for Tecnico Universitario.
• Most likely score is 1–0 (16%), followed by 0–0 (13%).
• Corners: about 9.8 (6.2 — 3.6).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 11 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 0.9, 2nd — 1.15.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	90%	100%	87%	1.15
Over 1.5	70%	60%	61%	1.65
Over 2.5	10%	50%	34%	2.97
Over 3.5	10%	10%	15%	6.58
Over 4.5	0%	10%	6%	17.46

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (10), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Emelec Tecnico Universitario

• Winless in 5 matches100%
• Under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Under 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 2.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• At least one team failed to score in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 3.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 10.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Under 9.5 corners in 6 of 8 matches75%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Emelecmatches: 10 · 10Tecnico Universitario

1.8Avg match total2.3

90%9/10Over 0.5100%10/10

10%1/10Under 0.50%0/10

70%7/10Over 1.560%6/10

30%3/10Under 1.540%4/10

10%1/10Over 2.550%5/10

90%9/10Under 2.550%5/10

10%1/10Over 3.510%1/10

90%9/10Under 3.590%9/10

0%0/10Over 4.510%1/10

100%10/10Under 4.590%9/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

EmelecTecnico Universitario

67%6/9Scores first30%3/10

67%4/6…and wins67%2/3

33%2/6…and draws0%0/3

0%0/6…and loses33%1/3

33%2/6…and then concedes33%1/3

First to concede…

Overall

• • Emelec opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • Emelec avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Tecnico Universitario opened the scoring in 30% of matches.
• • Tecnico Universitario avoided defeat after conceding first in 14% of such matches.

Emelec				Tecnico Universitario
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	0	0%	1–15	20%	0	3
6	1	50%	16–30	0%	0	0
1	2	30%	31–45	50%	2	3
1	1	20%	46–60	30%	1	3
0	1	10%	61–75	50%	3	2
1	4	40%	76–90	60%	1	5
1	2	30%	37–HT	30%	1	2
0	1	10%	87–FT	50%	1	4

• • Emelec scores most in 16–30: 6 of 9 goals (67%).
• • Emelec concedes most in 76–90: 4 of 9 conceded.
• • Emelec scores 11% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Tecnico Universitario scores most in 61–75: 3 of 7 goals (43%).
• • Tecnico Universitario concedes most in 76–90: 5 of 16 conceded.
• • Tecnico Universitario scores 57% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

EmelecTecnico Universitario

5.9Corners won, avg3.7

3.6Corners conceded, avg6.4

9.5Match corners, avg10.1

2.44Corners in 1st half, avg1.89

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Emelecper matchTecnico Universitario

1.31xG for0.73

0.99xG against1.27

13.7Shots10.1

10.6Shots against13.7

4.0Shots on target2.44

3.7On target against3.9

7%Conversion7%

15.2Shots per goal14.4

10.7Fouls14.3

2.44Offsides1.11

• • Emelec scores 0.41 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Emelec concedes 0.09 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Tecnico Universitario scores 0.03 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Tecnico Universitario concedes 0.33 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 1.67 goals per match on average.