Estrela Amadora U23 — Rio Ave U23 1:0: match report and statistics

Tournament

Portugal Championship U23

Season

2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Gil Vicente U23	16	12	1	3	35:21	+14	37	WWWWL
2	Rio Ave U23	16	11	0	5	25:16	+9	33	LWLWL
3	Farense U23	16	8	3	5	22:17	+5	27	WDWWL
4	Estoril U23	16	7	4	5	21:18	+3	25	LDWLD
5	Estrela Amadora U23	16	5	4	7	18:16	+2	19	LLLWD
6	UD Leiria U23	16	5	3	8	24:26	-2	18	WWWDD
7	Vizela U23	16	5	3	8	20:31	-11	18	LWWDD
8	Marítimo U23	16	5	2	9	17:25	-8	17	WLLLD
9	Portimonense U23	16	3	2	11	21:33	-12	11	LLLLD

• Promotion - Portugal Cup U23

• The model expects 2.08 goals: 0.9 for Estrela Amadora U23 and 1.18 for Rio Ave U23.
• Most likely score is 0–1 (15%), followed by 1–1 (13%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 7 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 0.86, 2nd — 1.21.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	86%	100%	87%	1.14
Over 1.5	71%	50%	61%	1.63
Over 2.5	43%	33%	34%	2.91
Over 3.5	14%	17%	16%	6.38
Over 4.5	0%	0%	6%	16.76

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (7), away team away (6). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Estrela Amadora U23 Rio Ave U23

• 8 wins in a row100%
• Unbeaten in 8 matches100%
• Scored in 8 matches in a row100%
• Winless in 7 matches100%
• Under 2.5 in 5 matches in a row100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 8 of 8 matches100%
• Won 6 of 6 matches after scoring first100%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Estrela Amadora U23matches: 7 · 6Rio Ave U23

2.15Avg match total2.0

86%6/7Over 0.5100%6/6

14%1/7Under 0.50%0/6

71%5/7Over 1.550%3/6

29%2/7Under 1.550%3/6

43%3/7Over 2.533%2/6

57%4/7Under 2.567%4/6

14%1/7Over 3.517%1/6

86%6/7Under 3.583%5/6

0%0/7Over 4.50%0/6

100%7/7Under 4.5100%6/6

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Estrela Amadora U23Rio Ave U23

50%3/6Scores first83%5/6

67%2/3…and wins100%5/5

33%1/3…and draws0%0/5

0%0/3…and loses0%0/5

67%2/3…and then concedes20%1/5

First to concede…

Overall

• • Estrela Amadora U23 opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • Estrela Amadora U23 avoided defeat after conceding first in 33% of such matches.
• • Rio Ave U23 opened the scoring in 83% of matches.
• • Rio Ave U23 avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.

Estrela Amadora U23				Rio Ave U23
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	1	43%	1–15	17%	1	0
0	1	14%	16–30	17%	1	0
1	0	14%	31–45	50%	3	1
2	1	29%	46–60	50%	2	1
1	1	29%	61–75	17%	1	0
3	2	57%	76–90	33%	1	1
0	0	0%	37–HT	17%	2	0
1	1	29%	87–FT	17%	0	1

• • Estrela Amadora U23 scores most in 76–90: 3 of 9 goals (33%).
• • Estrela Amadora U23 concedes most in 76–90: 2 of 6 conceded.
• • Estrela Amadora U23 scores 44% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Rio Ave U23 scores most in 31–45: 3 of 9 goals (33%).
• • Rio Ave U23 concedes most in 31–45: 1 of 3 conceded.
• • Rio Ave U23 scores 22% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.