Romania — Sweden 0:1: match report and statistics

• 0.56 Expected goals (xG) 2.84
• 52% Possession 48%
• 13 Total shots 12
• 4 Shots on target 2
• 0 Big Chances 7
• 5 Corners 4
• 88 (464/529)Assists(421/498) 85
• 4 Yellow cards 2
• 0.41 xG on target (xGOT) 1.44
• 3 Shots off target 9
• 6 Shots blocked 1
• 7 Shots from inside the penalty area 10
• 6 Shots from outside the penalty area 2
• 0 Hit the woodwork 2
• 22 Touches in opposition box 32
• 1 Accurate through passes 0
• 3 Offsides 0
• 11 Free kicks 15
• 62 (29/47)Long Balls(31/52) 60
• 82 (98/120)Passes in final third(74/104) 71
• 32 (9/28)Crosses(7/10) 70
• 0.9 Expected assists (xA) 1.59
• 15 Throw-ins 15
• 15 Fouls 11
• 50 (7/14)Tackles(4/8) 50
• 44 Duels won 40
• 12 Clearances 22
• 17 Steals 7
• 1 Errors leading to shot 0
• 0 Errors leading to goal 0
• 1 Saves 4
• 1.44 xGOT faced 0.41
• 0.44 Goals prevented 0.41
• 8 Goal kicks 8
• 0 Posts and crossbars 2

1. 90:00 +5:15The referee blows his whistle for the final time to end this match.
2. 90:00 +2:55Catalin Cirjan (Romania) is literally asking for a yellow card with his behaviour. The referee agrees and books him.
3. 90:00 +2:50Lisav Eissat (Romania) delivers a fine lofted cross into the penalty area, but it's cleared by an opposing player.
4. 90:00We will have 5 min. of added time.
5. 89:32Eric Smith (Sweden) attempted to create a dangerous situation in front of goal by sending a cross into the box, but the defence easily dealt with the threat.
6. 88:11It is time for a substitution. Hampus Skoglund (Sweden) is on for Alexander Bernhardsson.
7. 84:18It will be a corner kick for Romania.
8. 82:51Gheorghe Hagi prepares a substitution. Florin Tanase is replaced by Catalin Cirjan (Romania).
9. 82:13Valentin Mihaila (Romania) receives a yellow card from the referee as expected.
10. 81:07An opponent rises to his feet after being downed by Vlad Dragomir (Romania). Elchin Masiyev saw the sliding tackle and blows for a foul.
11. 77:08The referee signals that it is time for a substitution and Samuel Dahl (Sweden) is coming onto the pitch as Sebastian Nanasi cannot continue after picking up an injury.
12. 75:12Graham Potter has decided to make a change. Hugo Bolin (Sweden) replaces Besfort Zeneli.
13. 72:21Sweden are bossing possession at the moment by exchanging some precise passes from player to player.
14. 70:41Dangerous play by Victor Lindelof (Sweden). Elchin Masiyev blows his whistle for a foul.
15. 68:46The manager makes a subsitution with Ianis Hagi (Romania) coming on for Nicolae Stanciu.

Tournament

UEFA Nations League

Attendance

49,426

Referee

Elchin Masiyev

Group 1

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Switzerland	5	4	1	0	11:1	+10	13	DWWWW
2	Slovenia	5	2	2	1	5:3	+2	8	DWLWD
3	Scotland	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7	WLWLD
4	Republic of North Macedonia	5	0	0	5	1:12	-11	0	LLLLL

Group 2

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Northern Ireland	4	2	2	0	4:0	+4	8	DWDW
2	Hungary	4	2	1	1	3:2	+1	7	WWDL
3	Ukraine	4	1	1	2	2:5	-3	4	LLDW
4	Georgia	4	0	2	2	0:2	-2	2	DLDL

Group 3

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Austria	4	2	2	0	9:5	+4	8	DDWW
2	Kosovo	4	1	2	1	3:4	-1	5	DDLW
3	Republic of Ireland	4	1	2	1	6:4	+2	5	DDWL
4	Israel	4	0	2	2	2:7	-5	2	DDLL

Group 4

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Sweden	4	3	1	0	7:3	+4	10	WDWW
2	Bosnia and Herzegovina	4	2	2	0	6:3	+3	8	WDWD
3	Poland	4	1	1	2	7:4	+3	4	LWLD
4	Romania	4	0	0	4	3:13	-10	0	LLLL

• Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A)
• Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A/B - Relegation)
• UEFA Nations League (League B/C - Relegation)

• The model expects 3.44 goals: 2.25 for Romania and 1.19 for Sweden.
• Most likely score is 2–1 (10%), followed by 1–1 (9%).
• Corners: about 8.8 (5.2 — 3.7).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 11 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.69, 2nd — 1.76.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	97%	1.03
Over 1.5	75%	100%	86%	1.17
Over 2.5	63%	63%	67%	1.50
Over 3.5	25%	50%	45%	2.22
Over 4.5	25%	25%	26%	3.80

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (8), away team away (8). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Romania Sweden

• Over 2.5 in 4 matches in a row100%
• 3 defeats in a row100%
• Winless in 3 matches100%
• Unbeaten in 3 matches100%
• Both teams scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Both teams scored in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Romaniamatches: 8 · 8Sweden

3.4Avg match total3.5

100%8/8Over 0.5100%8/8

0%0/8Under 0.50%0/8

75%6/8Over 1.5100%8/8

25%2/8Under 1.50%0/8

63%5/8Over 2.563%5/8

38%3/8Under 2.538%3/8

25%2/8Over 3.550%4/8

75%6/8Under 3.550%4/8

25%2/8Over 4.525%2/8

75%6/8Under 4.575%6/8

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

RomaniaSweden

50%4/8Scores first25%2/8

100%4/4…and wins50%1/2

0%0/4…and draws50%1/2

0%0/4…and loses0%0/2

50%2/4…and then concedes100%2/2

First to concede…

Overall

• • Romania opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • Romania avoided defeat after conceding first in 25% of such matches.
• • Sweden opened the scoring in 25% of matches.
• • Sweden avoided defeat after conceding first in 17% of such matches.

Romania				Sweden
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	4	63%	1–15	50%	1	3
2	2	38%	16–30	38%	0	3
4	2	50%	31–45	50%	1	3
2	1	38%	46–60	63%	2	5
1	1	25%	61–75	63%	3	2
5	1	50%	76–90	63%	1	4
4	2	50%	37–HT	38%	0	3
1	0	13%	87–FT	38%	0	3

• • Romania scores most in 76–90: 5 of 16 goals (31%).
• • Romania concedes most in 1–15: 4 of 11 conceded.
• • Romania scores 38% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Sweden scores most in 61–75: 3 of 8 goals (38%).
• • Sweden concedes most in 46–60: 5 of 20 conceded.
• • Sweden scores 50% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

RomaniaSweden

5.9Corners won, avg3.6

3.8Corners conceded, avg4.4

9.6Match corners, avg8.0

2.63Corners in 1st half, avg1.43

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by 10 minutes (avg)

Romania				Sweden
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	0.7	67%	1–10	80%	0.8	0.4
0.3	0.7	100%	11–20	60%	0.2	0.4
0.3	0	33%	21–30	20%	0	0.2
0	0	0%	31–40	20%	0	0.4
0.3	0	33%	41–HT	80%	0.4	0.8
0.7	0.3	67%	46–55	60%	0.6	0.4
1	0.3	67%	56–65	60%	0.4	0.6
0.7	0.3	67%	66–75	60%	0.2	0.4
0	0	0%	76–85	80%	0.4	1.6
0.3	0.3	67%	86–FT	40%	0.4	0
0.3	0	33%	37–HT	80%	0.4	0.8
0.3	0.3	67%	87–FT	40%	0.4	0

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Romaniaper matchSweden

1.59xG for1.04

1.13xG against1.59

16.0Shots10.4

9.1Shots against11.0

5.6Shots on target4.6

3.6On target against5.7

13%Conversion10%

8.0Shots per goal10.4

12.9Fouls12.0

1.63Offsides1.57

• • Romania scores 0.41 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Romania concedes 0.25 per match more than opponents' xG.
• • Sweden scores 0.04 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Sweden concedes 0.91 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 5 · 2.6 goals per match on average.

Based on text commentary events (attacks, shots, corners, goals), not tracking data. Up — home team, down — away team.