Belgium — Italy: statistics, head-to-head and preview

Tournament

UEFA Nations League - League A

Venue

Stade Roi Baudouin (Brussel)

City

Bruxelles

Address

Avenue de Marathon 135

Capacity

50,093

Opened

1930

Architect

Bob Van Reeth

Map

Open map

Group 1

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	France	4	3	1	0	7:2	+5	10	WDWW
2	Italy	4	2	1	1	8:5	+3	7	WDWL
3	Belgium	4	2	0	2	6:5	+1	6	LWLW
4	Turkey	4	0	0	4	2:11	-9	0	LLLL

Group 2

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Netherlands	4	2	2	0	7:5	+2	8	WDWD
2	Greece	4	2	2	0	5:3	+2	8	DDWW
3	Germany	4	1	2	1	3:2	+1	5	DWLD
4	Serbia	4	0	0	4	3:8	-5	0	LLLL

Group 3

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Spain	4	4	0	0	12:5	+7	12	WWWW
2	England	4	3	0	1	14:3	+11	9	WWWL
3	Croatia	4	1	0	3	4:14	-10	3	LLLW
4	Czech Republic	4	0	0	4	2:10	-8	0	LLLL

Group 4

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Portugal	4	4	0	0	9:4	+5	12	WWWW
2	Denmark	4	2	0	2	7:7	0	6	WLWL
3	Wales	4	1	0	3	2:5	-3	3	LWLL
4	Norway	4	1	0	3	6:8	-2	3	LLLW

• Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play-off: Round of 8)
• UEFA Nations League (League A/B - Relegation)
• Relegation - UEFA Nations League (League B)

• The model expects 3.24 goals: 1.94 for Belgium and 1.3 for Italy.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (10%), followed by 2–1 (10%).
• Corners: about 9.8 (5.8 — 4.1).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 46-60: 15 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.19, 2nd — 1.94.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	75%	100%	96%	1.04
Over 1.5	63%	80%	83%	1.20
Over 2.5	50%	60%	63%	1.59
Over 3.5	38%	40%	41%	2.46
Over 4.5	38%	30%	23%	4.41

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (8), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Belgium Italy

• Unbeaten in 3 matches100%
• Both teams scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored over 0.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 2.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored first in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 2.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Won 4 of 5 matches after scoring first80%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Belgiummatches: 8 · 10Italy

2.88Avg match total3.6

75%6/8Over 0.5100%10/10

25%2/8Under 0.50%0/10

63%5/8Over 1.580%8/10

38%3/8Under 1.520%2/10

50%4/8Over 2.560%6/10

50%4/8Under 2.540%4/10

38%3/8Over 3.540%4/10

63%5/8Under 3.560%6/10

38%3/8Over 4.530%3/10

63%5/8Under 4.570%7/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

BelgiumItaly

50%3/6Scores first60%6/10

100%3/3…and wins83%5/6

0%0/3…and draws0%0/6

0%0/3…and loses17%1/6

0%0/3…and then concedes50%3/6

First to concede…

Overall

• • Belgium opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • Belgium avoided defeat after conceding first in 67% of such matches.
• • Italy opened the scoring in 60% of matches.
• • Italy avoided defeat after conceding first in 75% of such matches.

Belgium				Italy
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	0	25%	1–15	40%	3	1
1	2	38%	16–30	40%	3	2
2	0	13%	31–45	40%	2	4
6	1	50%	46–60	50%	5	3
2	0	25%	61–75	30%	3	0
5	1	50%	76–90	50%	5	4
1	0	13%	37–HT	40%	2	2
2	1	38%	87–FT	30%	4	2

• • Belgium scores most in 46–60: 6 of 18 goals (33%).
• • Belgium concedes most in 16–30: 2 of 4 conceded.
• • Belgium scores 39% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Italy scores most in 46–60: 5 of 21 goals (24%).
• • Italy concedes most in 31–45: 4 of 14 conceded.
• • Italy scores 38% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

BelgiumItaly

7.0Corners won, avg5.1

3.0Corners conceded, avg4.5

10.0Match corners, avg9.6

3.3Corners in 1st half, avg3.1

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by 10 minutes (avg)

Belgium				Italy
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
1.2	0	60%	1–10	83%	0.8	0.5
0.2	0.6	60%	11–20	50%	1	0.3
0.6	0.4	60%	21–30	33%	0.2	0.3
0.8	0.4	80%	31–40	83%	0.7	0.8
0.6	0.6	60%	41–HT	67%	0.7	0.5
1	0.2	80%	46–55	50%	0.8	0
1.2	0.8	100%	56–65	33%	0	0.5
0.6	0	40%	66–75	67%	0.7	0.5
0.6	0.2	60%	76–85	67%	0.3	0.7
0.2	0.2	40%	86–FT	83%	0.5	0.3
0.8	0.8	80%	37–HT	83%	1.3	0.5
0.2	0.2	40%	87–FT	83%	0.5	0.3

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Belgiumper matchItaly

2.16xG for1.66

1.03xG against1.52

20.1Shots14.6

11.6Shots against13.0

7.1Shots on target4.7

3.5On target against4.6

12%Conversion14%

8.5Shots per goal7.0

12.6Fouls11.5

1.25Offsides1.4

• • Belgium scores 0.22 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Belgium concedes 0.53 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Italy scores 0.44 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Italy concedes 0.02 per match fewer than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 2.5 goals per match on average.