Portugal — Denmark: statistics, head-to-head and preview

Tournament

UEFA Nations League

Season

2026/2027

Venue

Municipal (Braga)

City

Braga

Address

Parque Norte, R. Monte de Castro 12

Capacity

30,286

Opened

2003

Architect

Eduardo Souto de Moura

Map

Open map

Group 1

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	France	4	3	1	0	7:2	+5	10	WDWW
2	Italy	4	2	1	1	8:5	+3	7	WDWL
3	Belgium	4	2	0	2	6:5	+1	6	LWLW
4	Turkey	4	0	0	4	2:11	-9	0	LLLL

Group 2

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Netherlands	4	2	2	0	7:5	+2	8	WDWD
2	Greece	4	2	2	0	5:3	+2	8	DDWW
3	Germany	4	1	2	1	3:2	+1	5	DWLD
4	Serbia	4	0	0	4	3:8	-5	0	LLLL

Group 3

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Spain	4	4	0	0	12:5	+7	12	WWWW
2	England	4	3	0	1	14:3	+11	9	WWWL
3	Croatia	4	1	0	3	4:14	-10	3	LLLW
4	Czech Republic	4	0	0	4	2:10	-8	0	LLLL

Group 4

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Portugal	4	4	0	0	9:4	+5	12	WWWW
2	Denmark	4	2	0	2	7:7	0	6	WLWL
3	Wales	4	1	0	3	2:5	-3	3	LWLL
4	Norway	4	1	0	3	6:8	-2	3	LLLW

• Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play-off: Round of 8)
• UEFA Nations League (League A/B - Relegation)
• Relegation - UEFA Nations League (League B)

• The model expects 3.82 goals: 2.24 for Portugal and 1.58 for Denmark.
• Most likely score is 2–1 (9%), followed by 1–1 (8%).
• Corners: about 9.6 (5.2 — 4.4).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 16 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.64, 2nd — 1.86.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	88%	98%	1.02
Over 1.5	80%	75%	89%	1.12
Over 2.5	70%	75%	73%	1.36
Over 3.5	30%	63%	53%	1.89
Over 4.5	20%	63%	34%	2.98

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (10), away team away (8). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Portugal Denmark

• Scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• 4 wins in a row100%
• Unbeaten in 4 matches100%
• Scored in 4 matches in a row100%
• Both teams scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 3 matches in a row100%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Unbeaten in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Under 4.5 cards in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Under 10.5 corners in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored over 0.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Portugalmatches: 10 · 8Denmark

3.5Avg match total4.1

100%10/10Over 0.588%7/8

0%0/10Under 0.513%1/8

80%8/10Over 1.575%6/8

20%2/10Under 1.525%2/8

70%7/10Over 2.575%6/8

30%3/10Under 2.525%2/8

30%3/10Over 3.563%5/8

70%7/10Under 3.538%3/8

20%2/10Over 4.563%5/8

80%8/10Under 4.538%3/8

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

PortugalDenmark

60%6/10Scores first43%3/7

83%5/6…and wins100%3/3

17%1/6…and draws0%0/3

0%0/6…and loses0%0/3

67%4/6…and then concedes0%0/3

First to concede…

Overall

• • Portugal opened the scoring in 60% of matches.
• • Portugal avoided defeat after conceding first in 75% of such matches.
• • Denmark opened the scoring in 43% of matches.
• • Denmark avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.

Portugal				Denmark
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
3	1	40%	1–15	50%	1	3
6	1	50%	16–30	25%	2	1
5	3	60%	31–45	38%	3	1
3	1	40%	46–60	38%	3	0
4	0	40%	61–75	75%	4	2
5	3	70%	76–90	50%	4	4
5	2	60%	37–HT	25%	2	1
3	3	60%	87–FT	13%	0	2

• • Portugal scores most in 16–30: 6 of 26 goals (23%).
• • Portugal concedes most in 31–45: 3 of 9 conceded.
• • Portugal scores 35% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Denmark scores most in 61–75: 4 of 17 goals (24%).
• • Denmark concedes most in 76–90: 4 of 11 conceded.
• • Denmark scores 47% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

PortugalDenmark

5.7Corners won, avg5.6

3.2Corners conceded, avg4.8

8.9Match corners, avg10.4

2.67Corners in 1st half, avg2.25

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by 10 minutes (avg)

Portugal				Denmark
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0.3	0.3	67%	1–10	50%	0.5	0
0.2	0.3	33%	11–20	100%	1	0.5
0.3	0.3	50%	21–30	50%	1	0
0.7	0	50%	31–40	100%	1	0
0.3	0.5	67%	41–HT	50%	0.5	0
0.8	0	67%	46–55	50%	1.5	0
0.5	1	67%	56–65	50%	0	0.5
0.3	0.2	50%	66–75	100%	0.5	0.5
0.8	0.3	83%	76–85	50%	0	1
0.2	0.3	50%	86–FT	0%	0	0
0.5	0.5	67%	37–HT	100%	1.5	0
0.2	0.2	33%	87–FT	0%	0	0

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Portugalper matchDenmark

2.11xG for2.03

0.86xG against1.16

18.0Shots16.4

9.0Shots against9.1

6.8Shots on target6.1

3.1On target against4.3

14%Conversion14%

6.9Shots per goal7.3

9.4Fouls11.4

2.56Offsides1.13

• • Portugal scores 0.49 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Portugal concedes 0.04 per match more than opponents' xG.
• • Denmark scores 0.22 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Denmark concedes 0.72 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 3.5 goals per match on average.