Nanjing City — Guangxi Hengchen 0:2: match report and statistics

• 0.94 Expected goals (xG) 1.29
• 44% Possession 56%
• 11 Total shots 16
• 4 Shots on target 10
• 0 Big Chances 0
• 5 Corners 2
• 80 (284/353)Assists(415/481) 86
• 0 Yellow cards 1
• 0.3 xG on target (xGOT) 1.73
• 6 Shots off target 3
• 1 Shots blocked 3
• 7 Shots from inside the penalty area 8
• 4 Shots from outside the penalty area 8
• 0 Hit the woodwork 0
• 16 Touches in opposition box 33
• 0 Accurate through passes 0
• 2 Offsides 1
• 20 Free kicks 9
• 36 (16/45)Long Balls(33/54) 61
• 55 (39/71)Passes in final third(132/165) 80
• 21 (4/19)Crosses(2/5) 40
• 0.95 Expected assists (xA) 0.75
• 20 Throw-ins 26
• 9 Fouls 20
• 63 (10/16)Tackles(3/9) 33
• 54 Duels won 33
• 16 Clearances 22
• 7 Steals 5
• 0 Errors leading to shot 0
• 0 Errors leading to goal 0
• 8 Saves 4
• 1.73 xGOT faced 0.3
• -0.27 Goals prevented 0.3
• 5 Goal kicks 9

Tournament

China. League One

Season

2026

Attendance

3,014

Referee

Zhongchao Gu

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	29	18	8	3	57:28	+29	62	DDLWW
2	Nantong Zhiyun	29	15	9	5	37:21	+16	54	LWWWW
3	Shaanxi Union	29	14	6	9	53:30	+23	48	WLWWW
4	Guangxi Hengchen	29	13	8	8	46:35	+11	47	LLDDL
5	Shenzhen Juniors	29	12	11	6	42:32	+10	47	DLDDL
6	Yanbian Longding	29	12	9	8	42:30	+12	45	WWWLD
7	Wuxi Wugou	29	12	6	11	45:34	+11	42	WWLWD
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu	29	10	9	10	27:29	-2	39	DWLDW
9	Changchun Yatai	29	12	6	11	46:45	+1	38	WWDDD
10	Ningbo	29	10	7	12	34:36	-2	34	WLDDL
11	Dalian Kun City	29	8	10	11	35:43	-8	34	LWDDL
12	Nanjing City	29	8	7	14	29:39	-10	31	WWWDL
13	Suzhou Dongwu	29	7	12	10	32:38	-6	30	LDDDD
14	Jiangxi Dingnan United	29	5	13	11	39:51	-12	28	DLWLD
15	Meizhou Hakka	29	7	4	18	26:60	-34	22	LLLLD
16	Foshan Nanshi	29	3	7	19	29:68	-39	16	LLLLW

• Promotion - Superleague
• Relegation - Ligue 2

• The model expects 2.49 goals: 1.27 for Nanjing City and 1.22 for Guangxi Hengchen.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (11%).
• Corners: about 9.3 (4.4 — 4.9).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 31-45: 12 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.19, 2nd — 1.3.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	90%	100%	92%	1.09
Over 1.5	70%	89%	71%	1.41
Over 2.5	40%	56%	45%	2.21
Over 3.5	20%	11%	24%	4.18
Over 4.5	0%	11%	11%	9.36

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (10), away team away (9). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Nanjing City Guangxi Hengchen

• Winless in 7 matches100%
• Both teams scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored under 1.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• First-half goal in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 2.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored over 0.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Unbeaten in 8 of 10 matches80%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Nanjing Citymatches: 10 · 9Guangxi Hengchen

2.2Avg match total2.77

90%9/10Over 0.5100%9/9

10%1/10Under 0.50%0/9

70%7/10Over 1.589%8/9

30%3/10Under 1.511%1/9

40%4/10Over 2.556%5/9

60%6/10Under 2.544%4/9

20%2/10Over 3.511%1/9

80%8/10Under 3.589%8/9

0%0/10Over 4.511%1/9

100%10/10Under 4.589%8/9

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Nanjing CityGuangxi Hengchen

44%4/9Scores first33%3/9

75%3/4…and wins67%2/3

0%0/4…and draws0%0/3

25%1/4…and loses33%1/3

50%2/4…and then concedes67%2/3

First to concede…

Overall

• • Nanjing City opened the scoring in 44% of matches.
• • Nanjing City avoided defeat after conceding first in 60% of such matches.
• • Guangxi Hengchen opened the scoring in 33% of matches.
• • Guangxi Hengchen avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.

Nanjing City				Guangxi Hengchen
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	0	20%	1–15	44%	2	2
2	3	40%	16–30	0%	0	0
4	4	60%	31–45	44%	2	2
2	1	30%	46–60	56%	3	4
1	1	20%	61–75	56%	5	1
1	1	20%	76–90	44%	1	3
3	2	30%	37–HT	22%	1	1
1	0	10%	87–FT	22%	1	1

• • Nanjing City scores most in 31–45: 4 of 12 goals (33%).
• • Nanjing City concedes most in 31–45: 4 of 10 conceded.
• • Nanjing City scores 17% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Guangxi Hengchen scores most in 61–75: 5 of 13 goals (38%).
• • Guangxi Hengchen concedes most in 46–60: 4 of 12 conceded.
• • Guangxi Hengchen scores 46% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Nanjing CityGuangxi Hengchen

4.2Corners won, avg6.8

3.0Corners conceded, avg4.7

7.2Match corners, avg11.5

1.4Corners in 1st half, avg3.3

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Nanjing Cityper matchGuangxi Hengchen

0.85xG for1.35

1.02xG against1.1

12.4Shots13.4

9.6Shots against11.0

3.2Shots on target4.3

3.6On target against4.0

10%Conversion11%

10.3Shots per goal9.3

17.2Fouls15.6

2.4Offsides1.0

• • Nanjing City scores 0.35 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Nanjing City concedes 0.02 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Guangxi Hengchen scores 0.09 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Guangxi Hengchen concedes 0.23 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.