Guangxi Hengchen — Yanbian Longding 2:1: match report and statistics

• 1.62 Expected goals (xG) 0.67
• 66% Possession 34%
• 18 Total shots 8
• 8 Shots on target 3
• 4 Big Chances 0
• 4 Corners 4
• 86 (427/496)Assists(173/250) 69
• 1 Yellow cards 1
• 1.9 xG on target (xGOT) 0.66
• 5 Shots off target 4
• 5 Shots blocked 1
• 9 Shots from inside the penalty area 4
• 9 Shots from outside the penalty area 4
• 0 Hit the woodwork 0
• 27 Touches in opposition box 7
• 0 Accurate through passes 0
• 3 Offsides 2
• 12 Free kicks 19
• 53 (24/45)Long Balls(25/60) 42
• 72 (118/163)Passes in final third(27/57) 47
• 13 (2/16)Crosses(2/10) 20
• 0.69 Expected assists (xA) 0.2
• 23 Throw-ins 25
• 19 Fouls 12
• 88 (7/8)Tackles(5/10) 50
• 30 Duels won 34
• 23 Clearances 24
• 6 Steals 9
• 0 Errors leading to shot 0
• 0 Errors leading to goal 0
• 2 Saves 5
• 0.66 xGOT faced 1.9
• -0.34 Goals prevented -0.1
• 4 Goal kicks 10

Tournament

China. League One

Season

2026

Attendance

7,235

Referee

Chenguang JI

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	30	18	8	4	58:31	+27	62	LDDLW
2	Nantong Zhiyun	30	16	9	5	40:22	+18	57	WLWWW
3	Shaanxi Union	30	15	6	9	57:30	+27	51	WWLWW
4	Guangxi Hengchen	30	13	8	9	46:39	+7	47	LLLDD
5	Shenzhen Juniors	30	12	11	7	43:36	+7	47	LDLDD
6	Yanbian Longding	30	12	10	8	43:31	+12	46	DWWWL
7	Wuxi Wugou	30	12	7	11	46:35	+11	43	DWWLW
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu	30	10	10	10	28:30	-2	40	DDWLD
9	Changchun Yatai	30	12	7	11	47:46	+1	39	DWWDD
10	Ningbo	30	11	7	12	36:37	-1	37	WWLDD
11	Dalian Kun City	30	9	10	11	38:43	-5	37	WLWDD
12	Nanjing City	30	9	7	14	32:40	-8	34	WWWWD
13	Suzhou Dongwu	30	8	12	10	36:39	-3	33	WLDDD
14	Jiangxi Dingnan United	30	5	13	12	40:53	-13	28	LDLWL
15	Meizhou Hakka	30	7	4	19	26:63	-37	22	LLLLL
16	Foshan Nanshi	30	3	7	20	30:71	-41	16	LLLLL

• Promotion - Superleague
• Relegation - Ligue 2

• The model expects 3.05 goals: 1.6 for Guangxi Hengchen and 1.45 for Yanbian Longding.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (11%), followed by 2–1 (9%).
• Corners: about 9.5 (6.6 — 2.9).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 19 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.25, 2nd — 1.8.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	90%	80%	95%	1.05
Over 1.5	60%	70%	81%	1.24
Over 2.5	60%	40%	59%	1.70
Over 3.5	50%	30%	36%	2.75
Over 4.5	40%	20%	19%	5.18

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (10), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Guangxi Hengchen Yanbian Longding

• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Unbeaten in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 4.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 3.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 9.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Scored over 1.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Scored over 0.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Unbeaten in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Guangxi Hengchenmatches: 10 · 10Yanbian Longding

3.5Avg match total2.6

90%9/10Over 0.580%8/10

10%1/10Under 0.520%2/10

60%6/10Over 1.570%7/10

40%4/10Under 1.530%3/10

60%6/10Over 2.540%4/10

40%4/10Under 2.560%6/10

50%5/10Over 3.530%3/10

50%5/10Under 3.570%7/10

40%4/10Over 4.520%2/10

60%6/10Under 4.580%8/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Guangxi HengchenYanbian Longding

56%5/9Scores first50%4/8

60%3/5…and wins100%4/4

40%2/5…and draws0%0/4

0%0/5…and loses0%0/4

40%2/5…and then concedes75%3/4

First to concede…

Overall

• • Guangxi Hengchen opened the scoring in 56% of matches.
• • Guangxi Hengchen avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.
• • Yanbian Longding opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • Yanbian Longding avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.

Guangxi Hengchen				Yanbian Longding
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	2	20%	1–15	40%	3	1
4	1	30%	16–30	30%	2	1
4	2	50%	31–45	30%	2	3
2	3	40%	46–60	30%	2	1
3	2	40%	61–75	30%	2	2
5	7	60%	76–90	60%	1	6
3	1	40%	37–HT	30%	1	3
4	3	50%	87–FT	20%	1	1

• • Guangxi Hengchen scores most in 76–90: 5 of 18 goals (28%).
• • Guangxi Hengchen concedes most in 76–90: 7 of 17 conceded.
• • Guangxi Hengchen scores 44% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Yanbian Longding scores most in 1–15: 3 of 12 goals (25%).
• • Yanbian Longding concedes most in 76–90: 6 of 14 conceded.
• • Yanbian Longding scores 25% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Guangxi HengchenYanbian Longding

7.8Corners won, avg2.7

3.1Corners conceded, avg5.5

10.9Match corners, avg8.2

4.8Corners in 1st half, avg1.4

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Guangxi Hengchenper matchYanbian Longding

1.83xG for0.8

0.85xG against1.24

16.0Shots8.6

8.0Shots against12.5

5.6Shots on target2.9

3.8On target against3.6

11%Conversion14%

8.9Shots per goal7.2

13.9Fouls16.5

1.38Offsides1.0

• • Guangxi Hengchen scores 0.03 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Guangxi Hengchen concedes 0.85 per match more than opponents' xG.
• • Yanbian Longding scores 0.4 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Yanbian Longding concedes 0.16 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.