Scotland — Slovenia: statistics, head-to-head and preview

Tournament

UEFA Nations League

Season

2026/2027

Group 1

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Switzerland	4	4	0	0	11:1	+10	12	WWWW
2	Slovenia	4	2	1	1	5:3	+2	7	WLWD
3	Scotland	4	1	1	2	3:5	-2	4	LWLD
4	Republic of North Macedonia	4	0	0	4	0:10	-10	0	LLLL

Group 2

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Northern Ireland	4	2	2	0	4:0	+4	8	DWDW
2	Hungary	4	2	1	1	3:2	+1	7	WWDL
3	Ukraine	4	1	1	2	2:5	-3	4	LLDW
4	Georgia	4	0	2	2	0:2	-2	2	DLDL

Group 3

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Austria	4	2	2	0	9:5	+4	8	DDWW
2	Kosovo	4	1	2	1	3:4	-1	5	DDLW
3	Republic of Ireland	4	1	2	1	6:4	+2	5	DDWL
4	Israel	4	0	2	2	2:7	-5	2	DDLL

Group 4

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Sweden	4	3	1	0	7:3	+4	10	WDWW
2	Bosnia and Herzegovina	4	2	2	0	6:3	+3	8	WDWD
3	Poland	4	1	1	2	7:4	+3	4	LWLD
4	Romania	4	0	0	4	3:13	-10	0	LLLL

• Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A)
• Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A/B - Relegation)
• UEFA Nations League (League B/C - Relegation)

• The model expects 2.63 goals: 1.41 for Scotland and 1.22 for Slovenia.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (10%).
• Corners: about 10.4 (5.8 — 4.7).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 15 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.13, 2nd — 1.5.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	88%	93%	1.08
Over 1.5	67%	63%	74%	1.35
Over 2.5	67%	50%	49%	2.04
Over 3.5	33%	13%	27%	3.70
Over 4.5	22%	13%	13%	7.88

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (9), away team away (8). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Scotland Slovenia

• Conceded under 2.5 in 10 of 10 matches100%
• At least one team failed to score in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 4.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 2.5 cards in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 8.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Over 8.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Scored under 1.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Under 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Scotlandmatches: 9 · 8Slovenia

3.0Avg match total2.26

100%9/9Over 0.588%7/8

0%0/9Under 0.513%1/8

67%6/9Over 1.563%5/8

33%3/9Under 1.538%3/8

67%6/9Over 2.550%4/8

33%3/9Under 2.550%4/8

33%3/9Over 3.513%1/8

67%6/9Under 3.588%7/8

22%2/9Over 4.513%1/8

78%7/9Under 4.588%7/8

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

ScotlandSlovenia

22%2/9Scores first43%3/7

100%2/2…and wins33%1/3

0%0/2…and draws33%1/3

0%0/2…and loses33%1/3

100%2/2…and then concedes67%2/3

First to concede…

Overall

• • Scotland opened the scoring in 22% of matches.
• • Scotland avoided defeat after conceding first in 29% of such matches.
• • Slovenia opened the scoring in 43% of matches.
• • Slovenia avoided defeat after conceding first in 25% of such matches.

Scotland				Slovenia
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	4	67%	1–15	13%	1	1
0	1	11%	16–30	25%	0	2
1	1	22%	31–45	50%	2	4
1	3	44%	46–60	25%	2	1
2	1	22%	61–75	13%	1	0
7	4	67%	76–90	38%	1	3
1	1	22%	37–HT	50%	2	3
3	1	33%	87–FT	25%	0	2

• • Scotland scores most in 76–90: 7 of 13 goals (54%).
• • Scotland concedes most in 1–15: 4 of 14 conceded.
• • Scotland scores 69% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Slovenia scores most in 31–45: 2 of 7 goals (29%).
• • Slovenia concedes most in 31–45: 4 of 11 conceded.
• • Slovenia scores 29% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

ScotlandSlovenia

5.0Corners won, avg3.8

5.6Corners conceded, avg6.5

10.6Match corners, avg10.3

1.5Corners in 1st half, avg1.5

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by 10 minutes (avg)

Scotland				Slovenia
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	0	0%	1–10	75%	0	1
0	2	100%	11–20	75%	0.3	0.5
0	1	50%	21–30	50%	0	0.5
0	0.5	50%	31–40	75%	1	0.8
0	0.5	50%	41–HT	0%	0	0
0	2.5	100%	46–55	50%	0.3	0.3
0	0	0%	56–65	25%	0.3	0
0	0.5	50%	66–75	25%	0	0.5
1	0	50%	76–85	100%	0.8	0.8
1	0	50%	86–FT	75%	0.5	0.3
0	1	50%	37–HT	25%	0	0.3
0.5	0	50%	87–FT	50%	0.3	0.3

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Scotlandper matchSlovenia

1.21xG for0.96

1.92xG against1.09

11.3Shots9.6

15.9Shots against12.9

4.6Shots on target2.63

4.1On target against4.4

13%Conversion9%

7.8Shots per goal10.9

11.4Fouls13.8

0.5Offsides1.38

• • Scotland scores 0.23 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Scotland concedes 0.36 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Slovenia scores 0.08 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Slovenia concedes 0.29 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 1.67 goals per match on average.