Sagesse — Tadamon Sour 4:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

Lebanon. Premier League

Season

2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Al-Ansar Beirut	21	17	2	2	53:9	+44	53	WWWWW
2	Al Nejmeh	21	14	4	3	42:10	+32	46	WWWWL
3	Al Ahed	21	13	1	7	34:22	+12	40	WWLWL
4	Jwaya	21	11	5	5	31:14	+17	38	DDLDW
5	Al-Safa SC	21	11	3	7	30:17	+13	36	WDLWW
6	Sagesse	21	9	3	9	29:27	+2	30	LWWDL
7	Shabab Al-Sahel	21	7	6	8	22:21	+1	27	DLWWL
8	Al-Mabarrah	21	5	7	9	12:36	-24	22	LLLLD
9	Al Riyadi Al Abassiya	21	5	5	11	16:30	-14	20	WLLLL
10	Tadamon Sour	21	3	8	10	12:26	-14	17	LLLWD
11	Racing Beirut	21	0	1	20	4:61	-57	1	LLLLL
12	Al Bourj	11	3	1	7	8:20	-12	10	LLWWL

• Promotion - AFC Challenge League
• Premier League (Relegation. Play-offs)

• The model expects 2.87 goals: 1.69 for Sagesse and 1.19 for Tadamon Sour.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (11%), followed by 1–0 (10%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 1-15: 10 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.92, 2nd — 0.95.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	83%	94%	1.06
Over 1.5	100%	50%	78%	1.28
Over 2.5	100%	0%	55%	1.83
Over 3.5	60%	0%	32%	3.09
Over 4.5	40%	0%	16%	6.12

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (5), away team away (6). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Sagesse Tadamon Sour

• Under 2.5 in 6 matches in a row100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Scored under 1.5 in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 8 of 8 matches100%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Under 2.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored under 1.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%
• At least one team failed to score in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Sagessematches: 5 · 6Tadamon Sour

4.4Avg match total1.34

100%5/5Over 0.583%5/6

0%0/5Under 0.517%1/6

100%5/5Over 1.550%3/6

0%0/5Under 1.550%3/6

100%5/5Over 2.50%0/6

0%0/5Under 2.5100%6/6

60%3/5Over 3.50%0/6

40%2/5Under 3.5100%6/6

40%2/5Over 4.50%0/6

60%3/5Under 4.5100%6/6

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

SagesseTadamon Sour

40%2/5Scores first0%0/5

50%1/2…and wins—

0%0/2…and draws—

50%1/2…and loses—

100%2/2…and then concedes—

First to concede…

Overall

• • Sagesse opened the scoring in 40% of matches.
• • Sagesse avoided defeat after conceding first in 67% of such matches.
• • Tadamon Sour opened the scoring in 0% of matches.
• • Tadamon Sour avoided defeat after conceding first in 20% of such matches.

Sagesse				Tadamon Sour
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
4	4	80%	1–15	33%	0	2
2	1	60%	16–30	17%	1	0
3	1	40%	31–45	33%	0	2
1	1	40%	46–60	0%	0	0
0	2	40%	61–75	0%	0	0
1	2	40%	76–90	50%	0	3
3	1	40%	37–HT	33%	0	2
1	2	40%	87–FT	33%	0	2

• • Sagesse scores most in 1–15: 4 of 11 goals (36%).
• • Sagesse concedes most in 1–15: 4 of 11 conceded.
• • Sagesse scores 9% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Tadamon Sour scores most in 16–30: 1 of 1 goals (100%).
• • Tadamon Sour concedes most in 76–90: 3 of 7 conceded.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 1 goals per match on average.