Calvary — Uganda Police 1:0: match report and statistics

Tournament

Uganda. Premier League

Season

2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Vipers	30	19	10	1	55:17	+38	67	WWDDD
2	Kampala Capital City Authority	30	19	5	6	46:22	+24	62	WDWWD
3	Villa	30	18	7	5	47:17	+30	61	WWWDL
4	Kitara	30	16	8	6	43:22	+21	56	DDLLW
5	Entebbe UPPC	30	14	9	7	30:20	+10	51	WDDWW
6	NEC Bugolobi	30	13	12	5	31:22	+9	51	LWWDD
7	Uganda Police	30	13	8	9	42:35	+7	47	DDDLW
8	Maroons	30	9	11	10	26:27	-1	38	LDLDW
9	Bul	30	9	10	11	30:33	-3	37	LDDDL
10	Express	30	9	10	11	28:31	-3	37	LDWWL
11	Uganda Revenue Authority	30	5	16	9	27:30	-3	31	WDDDD
12	Mbarara City	30	6	9	15	26:46	-20	27	LWLWW
13	Lugazi	30	5	10	15	19:36	-17	25	DDLWL
14	Uganda People's Defence Force	30	5	7	18	24:41	-17	22	LDLLL
15	Calvary	30	4	9	17	14:39	-25	21	DDWLW
16	Buhimba Saints United	30	4	3	23	16:66	-50	15	LLLLL

• Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
• Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
• Relegation - Uganda. Division 2

• The model expects 2.05 goals: 1.09 for Calvary and 0.96 for Uganda Police.
• Most likely score is 1–0 (14%), followed by 1–1 (13%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 31-45: 11 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.23, 2nd — 0.84.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	70%	89%	87%	1.15
Over 1.5	30%	89%	61%	1.65
Over 2.5	10%	67%	34%	2.97
Over 3.5	0%	44%	15%	6.58
Over 4.5	0%	11%	6%	17.46

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (10), away team away (9). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Calvary Uganda Police

• Under 2.5 in 7 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 7 of 7 matches100%
• Scored under 1.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• At least one team failed to score in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Under 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 9.5 corners in 6 of 8 matches75%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Failed to score in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Calvarymatches: 10 · 9Uganda Police

1.1Avg match total3.0

70%7/10Over 0.589%8/9

30%3/10Under 0.511%1/9

30%3/10Over 1.589%8/9

70%7/10Under 1.511%1/9

10%1/10Over 2.567%6/9

90%9/10Under 2.533%3/9

0%0/10Over 3.544%4/9

100%10/10Under 3.556%5/9

0%0/10Over 4.511%1/9

100%10/10Under 4.589%8/9

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

CalvaryUganda Police

43%3/7Scores first38%3/8

67%2/3…and wins33%1/3

33%1/3…and draws33%1/3

0%0/3…and loses33%1/3

33%1/3…and then concedes100%3/3

First to concede…

Overall

• • Calvary opened the scoring in 43% of matches.
• • Calvary avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Uganda Police opened the scoring in 38% of matches.
• • Uganda Police avoided defeat after conceding first in 40% of such matches.

Calvary				Uganda Police
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
1	2	30%	1–15	22%	1	1
0	1	10%	16–30	33%	0	4
1	1	20%	31–45	67%	3	6
2	1	20%	46–60	11%	1	0
0	0	0%	61–75	44%	3	1
0	0	0%	76–90	56%	3	4
1	0	10%	37–HT	33%	1	3
0	0	0%	87–FT	56%	2	4

• • Calvary scores most in 46–60: 2 of 4 goals (50%).
• • Calvary concedes most in 1–15: 2 of 5 conceded.
• • Calvary scores 0% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Uganda Police scores most in 31–45: 3 of 11 goals (27%).
• • Uganda Police concedes most in 31–45: 6 of 16 conceded.
• • Uganda Police scores 55% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

CalvaryUganda Police

—Corners won, avg5.1

—Corners conceded, avg3.4

—Match corners, avg8.6

—Corners in 1st half, avg2.29

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.