KS Pogradeci — KF Skenderbeu Korce 1:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

1st Division

Season

2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	KF Laci	33	24	7	2	60:23	+37	79	WWWWW
2	KF Skenderbeu Korce	33	24	5	4	57:25	+32	77	LDWWW
3	KS Pogradeci	33	20	8	5	63:31	+32	68	LDLWW
4	KF Iliria Fushe-Kruje	33	11	12	10	32:33	-1	45	DWWLL
5	Besa Kavaje	33	10	9	14	41:43	-2	39	LDWDW
6	KS Kastrioti	33	11	6	16	44:57	-13	39	WLLLL
7	Burreli	33	9	10	14	27:45	-18	37	DWLLL
8	Korabi Peshkopi	33	8	12	13	31:39	-8	36	DDDDL
9	Luftetari	33	7	13	13	37:43	-6	34	WWWWL
10	Kukesi	33	8	7	18	31:50	-19	31	WLDLW
11	Apolonia Fier	33	6	10	17	31:44	-13	28	DLLDL
12	KS Lushnja	33	5	11	17	26:47	-21	26	LLLDW

• Promotion - Superleague
• Promotion - Superliga (Promotion)
• Division 2 (Relegation. Play-off)
• Relegation

• The model expects 2.55 goals: 1.6 for KS Pogradeci and 0.95 for KF Skenderbeu Korce.
• Most likely score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (12%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 14 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.25, 2nd — 1.3.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	80%	90%	92%	1.08
Over 1.5	80%	50%	72%	1.38
Over 2.5	60%	30%	47%	2.13
Over 3.5	50%	10%	25%	3.95
Over 4.5	30%	10%	12%	8.65

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (10), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams KS Pogradeci KF Skenderbeu Korce

• Unbeaten in 10 matches100%
• Scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• 3 wins in a row100%
• 3 clean sheets in a row100%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 9 of 9 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 9 of 9 matches100%
• Won 8 of 8 matches after scoring first100%
• Won 7 of 7 matches after scoring first100%
• Unbeaten in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored first in 8 of 9 matches89%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

KS Pogradecimatches: 10 · 10KF Skenderbeu Korce

3.2Avg match total1.9

80%8/10Over 0.590%9/10

20%2/10Under 0.510%1/10

80%8/10Over 1.550%5/10

20%2/10Under 1.550%5/10

60%6/10Over 2.530%3/10

40%4/10Under 2.570%7/10

50%5/10Over 3.510%1/10

50%5/10Under 3.590%9/10

30%3/10Over 4.510%1/10

70%7/10Under 4.590%9/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

KS PogradeciKF Skenderbeu Korce

88%7/8Scores first67%6/9

100%7/7…and wins100%6/6

0%0/7…and draws0%0/6

0%0/7…and loses0%0/6

57%4/7…and then concedes0%0/6

First to concede…

Overall

• • KS Pogradeci opened the scoring in 88% of matches.
• • KS Pogradeci avoided defeat after conceding first in 100% of such matches.
• • KF Skenderbeu Korce opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • KF Skenderbeu Korce avoided defeat after conceding first in 67% of such matches.

KS Pogradeci				KF Skenderbeu Korce
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
5	1	50%	1–15	30%	0	3
5	0	40%	16–30	10%	0	1
5	2	40%	31–45	30%	3	0
1	0	10%	46–60	30%	3	1
3	1	20%	61–75	30%	3	0
8	1	50%	76–90	50%	5	0
4	0	20%	37–HT	20%	2	0
2	0	20%	87–FT	30%	3	0

• • KS Pogradeci scores most in 76–90: 8 of 27 goals (30%).
• • KS Pogradeci concedes most in 31–45: 2 of 5 conceded.
• • KS Pogradeci scores 41% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • KF Skenderbeu Korce scores most in 76–90: 5 of 14 goals (36%).
• • KF Skenderbeu Korce concedes most in 1–15: 3 of 5 conceded.
• • KF Skenderbeu Korce scores 57% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 3 goals per match on average.