Al-Zawra'a — Duhok 2:2: match report and statistics

Tournament

Iraq. Stars League

Season

2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya	38	27	8	3	62:28	+34	89	WWWWL
2	Al-Shorta Baghdad	38	24	8	6	69:32	+37	80	DWLWW
3	Erbil	38	23	10	5	59:32	+27	79	WWWLW
4	Al-Zawra'a	38	17	15	6	50:32	+18	66	LLLDW
5	Al-Karma	38	17	14	7	53:26	+27	65	WWDDW
6	Al-Talaba	38	18	11	9	53:38	+15	65	DDDLD
7	Al-Karkh SC	38	16	12	10	51:41	+10	60	DLWDW
8	Newroz Sulaymaniyah	38	16	6	16	48:47	+1	54	LDWWL
9	Zakho	38	14	11	13	49:45	+4	53	LLDLD
10	Duhok	38	13	11	14	44:45	-1	50	LLDDW
11	Diyala	38	13	10	15	40:42	-2	49	WLLLW
12	Al-Naft	38	11	15	12	33:34	-1	48	WWDDL
13	Al Mosul	38	11	14	13	46:49	-3	47	WDLDD
14	Al-Gharraf	38	11	11	16	40:43	-3	44	LWDDL
15	Naft Maysan	38	11	10	17	48:57	-9	43	WLWWD
16	Al Minaa Basra	38	9	13	16	38:47	-9	40	DDDWD
17	Al-Kahrabaa	37	11	5	21	44:56	-12	38	LWDWW
18	Amanat Baghdad	38	10	7	21	47:68	-21	37	LLWLL
19	Al-Najaf	37	6	5	26	31:68	-37	23	WWLLD
20	Al-Qasim	38	0	6	32	21:96	-75	6	LLLDL

• Promotion - Champions League (League stage)
• Stars League (Relegation - Play-off)
• Relegation

• The model expects 2.41 goals: 1.44 for Al-Zawra'a and 0.97 for Duhok.
• Most likely score is 1–0 (13%), followed by 1–1 (13%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 12 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.15, 2nd — 1.26.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	89%	100%	91%	1.10
Over 1.5	67%	100%	69%	1.44
Over 2.5	33%	60%	43%	2.32
Over 3.5	11%	10%	22%	4.50
Over 4.5	11%	0%	10%	10.36

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (9), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Al-Zawra'a Duhok

• Unbeaten in 10 matches100%
• Scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• Both teams scored in 4 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 4 matches in a row100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Under 3.5 goals in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Scored over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Won 6 of 7 matches after scoring first86%
• Under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Al-Zawra'amatches: 9 · 10Duhok

2.11Avg match total2.7

89%8/9Over 0.5100%10/10

11%1/9Under 0.50%0/10

67%6/9Over 1.5100%10/10

33%3/9Under 1.50%0/10

33%3/9Over 2.560%6/10

67%6/9Under 2.540%4/10

11%1/9Over 3.510%1/10

89%8/9Under 3.590%9/10

11%1/9Over 4.50%0/10

89%8/9Under 4.5100%10/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Al-Zawra'aDuhok

88%7/8Scores first60%6/10

100%7/7…and wins67%4/6

0%0/7…and draws33%2/6

0%0/7…and loses0%0/6

14%1/7…and then concedes50%3/6

First to concede…

Overall

• • Al-Zawra'a opened the scoring in 88% of matches.
• • Al-Zawra'a avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Duhok opened the scoring in 60% of matches.
• • Duhok avoided defeat after conceding first in 25% of such matches.

Al-Zawra'a				Duhok
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	1	33%	1–15	20%	1	1
1	0	11%	16–30	40%	2	3
4	1	33%	31–45	60%	5	1
0	0	0%	46–60	40%	1	3
3	2	56%	61–75	30%	1	2
5	0	44%	76–90	40%	5	2
3	0	22%	37–HT	40%	3	1
3	0	22%	87–FT	40%	3	1

• • Al-Zawra'a scores most in 76–90: 5 of 15 goals (33%).
• • Al-Zawra'a concedes most in 61–75: 2 of 4 conceded.
• • Al-Zawra'a scores 53% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Duhok scores most in 31–45: 5 of 15 goals (33%).
• • Duhok concedes most in 16–30: 3 of 12 conceded.
• • Duhok scores 40% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 2 goals per match on average.