Thailand — Japan: statistics, head-to-head and preview

Tournament

AFC Asian Cup

Season

2027

• The model expects 2.61 goals: 1.15 for Thailand and 1.46 for Japan.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).
• Corners: about 8.1 (4.4 — 3.7).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 46-60: 8 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 0.9, 2nd — 1.71.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	93%	1.08
Over 1.5	100%	60%	74%	1.36
Over 2.5	50%	60%	49%	2.06
Over 3.5	13%	40%	27%	3.74
Over 4.5	0%	0%	12%	8.02

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (8), away team away (5). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Thailand Japan

• Scored in 10 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• 4 wins in a row100%
• Unbeaten in 4 matches100%
• Over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Unbeaten in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Won 5 of 6 matches after scoring first83%
• Under 9.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Under 9.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Thailandmatches: 8 · 5Japan

2.63Avg match total2.6

100%8/8Over 0.5100%5/5

0%0/8Under 0.50%0/5

100%8/8Over 1.560%3/5

0%0/8Under 1.540%2/5

50%4/8Over 2.560%3/5

50%4/8Under 2.540%2/5

13%1/8Over 3.540%2/5

88%7/8Under 3.560%3/5

0%0/8Over 4.50%0/5

100%8/8Under 4.5100%5/5

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

ThailandJapan

63%5/8Scores first80%4/5

80%4/5…and wins75%3/4

20%1/5…and draws0%0/4

0%0/5…and loses25%1/4

40%2/5…and then concedes25%1/4

First to concede…

Overall

• • Thailand opened the scoring in 63% of matches.
• • Thailand avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Japan opened the scoring in 80% of matches.
• • Japan avoided defeat after conceding first in 100% of such matches.

Thailand				Japan
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
3	1	50%	1–15	20%	1	0
0	0	0%	16–30	40%	2	0
3	1	38%	31–45	20%	1	0
3	2	63%	46–60	40%	1	2
1	5	50%	61–75	40%	1	1
2	0	25%	76–90	80%	3	1
3	1	38%	37–HT	0%	0	0
2	0	25%	87–FT	40%	1	1

• • Thailand scores most in 1–15: 3 of 12 goals (25%).
• • Thailand concedes most in 61–75: 5 of 9 conceded.
• • Thailand scores 25% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Japan scores most in 76–90: 3 of 9 goals (33%).
• • Japan concedes most in 46–60: 2 of 4 conceded.
• • Japan scores 44% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

ThailandJapan

3.2Corners won, avg4.0

3.3Corners conceded, avg5.6

6.5Match corners, avg9.6

1.17Corners in 1st half, avg2.4

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by 10 minutes (avg)

Thailand				Japan
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
—	—	—	1–10	67%	0	0.7
—	—	—	11–20	100%	0.7	0.7
—	—	—	21–30	33%	0.3	0
—	—	—	31–40	67%	0	0.7
—	—	—	41–HT	67%	0.3	0.3
—	—	—	46–55	33%	0	0.3
—	—	—	56–65	67%	0	1
—	—	—	66–75	67%	0.3	0.7
—	—	—	76–85	33%	0	0.7
—	—	—	86–FT	100%	0.7	2.3
—	—	—	37–HT	67%	0.3	0.3
—	—	—	87–FT	100%	0.7	1.7

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Thailandper matchJapan

1.67xG for1.15

0.75xG against0.94

9.7Shots10.2

10.8Shots against11.6

4.5Shots on target3.8

3.5On target against4.0

16%Conversion18%

6.5Shots per goal5.7

13.0Fouls12.8

1.83Offsides0.4

• • Thailand scores 0.17 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Thailand concedes 0.38 per match more than opponents' xG.
• • Japan scores 0.65 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Japan concedes 0.14 per match fewer than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 4 goals per match on average.