Thailand — Indonesia: statistics, head-to-head and preview

Tournament

AFC Asian Cup

Season

2027

• The model expects 2.05 goals: 1.04 for Thailand and 1.01 for Indonesia.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (14%), followed by 1–0 (13%).
• Corners: about 8 (4.1 — 3.8).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 61-75: 9 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 0.56, 2nd — 1.49.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	60%	87%	1.15
Over 1.5	100%	40%	61%	1.65
Over 2.5	56%	20%	34%	2.98
Over 3.5	22%	0%	15%	6.62
Over 4.5	11%	0%	6%	17.60

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (9), away team away (5). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Thailand Indonesia

• Scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• Unbeaten in 5 matches100%
• Over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Unbeaten in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored first in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Won 7 of 8 matches after scoring first88%
• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored over 0.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Won 5 of 6 matches after scoring first83%
• Under 9.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Thailandmatches: 9 · 5Indonesia

2.89Avg match total1.2

100%9/9Over 0.560%3/5

0%0/9Under 0.540%2/5

100%9/9Over 1.540%2/5

0%0/9Under 1.560%3/5

56%5/9Over 2.520%1/5

44%4/9Under 2.580%4/5

22%2/9Over 3.50%0/5

78%7/9Under 3.5100%5/5

11%1/9Over 4.50%0/5

89%8/9Under 4.5100%5/5

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

ThailandIndonesia

67%6/9Scores first67%2/3

83%5/6…and wins50%1/2

17%1/6…and draws50%1/2

0%0/6…and loses0%0/2

50%3/6…and then concedes50%1/2

First to concede…

Overall

• • Thailand opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • Thailand avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Indonesia opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • Indonesia avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.

Thailand				Indonesia
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
4	1	56%	1–15	0%	0	0
0	1	11%	16–30	0%	0	0
3	1	33%	31–45	0%	0	0
5	2	67%	46–60	20%	1	0
1	6	56%	61–75	40%	1	1
2	0	22%	76–90	40%	2	1
3	1	33%	37–HT	0%	0	0
2	0	22%	87–FT	0%	0	0

• • Thailand scores most in 46–60: 5 of 15 goals (33%).
• • Thailand concedes most in 61–75: 6 of 11 conceded.
• • Thailand scores 20% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Indonesia scores most in 76–90: 2 of 4 goals (50%).
• • Indonesia concedes most in 61–75: 1 of 2 conceded.
• • Indonesia scores 75% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

ThailandIndonesia

4.3Corners won, avg4.3

3.3Corners conceded, avg4.0

7.6Match corners, avg8.3

2.0Corners in 1st half, avg4.0

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by 10 minutes (avg)

Thailand				Indonesia
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
—	—	—	1–10	100%	1	0
—	—	—	11–20	100%	1	0
—	—	—	21–30	100%	1	0
—	—	—	31–40	100%	1	1
—	—	—	41–HT	0%	0	0
—	—	—	46–55	0%	0	0
—	—	—	56–65	100%	0	1
—	—	—	66–75	100%	0	1
—	—	—	76–85	0%	0	0
—	—	—	86–FT	0%	0	0
—	—	—	37–HT	100%	0	1
—	—	—	87–FT	0%	0	0

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Thailandper matchIndonesia

1.6xG for2.2

0.89xG against0.32

10.1Shots11.7

10.6Shots against9.7

4.6Shots on target3.3

3.6On target against3.7

16%Conversion7%

6.1Shots per goal14.6

12.9Fouls14.3

2.43Offsides2.67

• • Thailand scores 0.07 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Thailand concedes 0.33 per match more than opponents' xG.
• • Indonesia scores 1.4 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Indonesia concedes 0.08 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 3.83 goals per match on average.