Deren — Central Stallions 2:0: match report and statistics

Tournament

Premier League

Season

2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Ulaanbaatar	23	17	3	3	82:20	+62	54	LWLWW
2	Central Stallions	23	14	5	4	60:26	+34	47	WLWDL
3	Deren	23	14	3	6	70:25	+45	45	WWWLW
4	Khangarid Klub	22	10	4	8	68:34	+34	34	LLLDL

• Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)

• The model expects 4.09 goals: 2.84 for Deren and 1.25 for Central Stallions.
• Most likely score is 2–1 (8%), followed by 3–1 (8%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 46-60: 5 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.67, 2nd — 2.42.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	98%	1.02
Over 1.5	100%	100%	91%	1.09
Over 2.5	67%	50%	77%	1.29
Over 3.5	33%	0%	58%	1.72
Over 4.5	33%	0%	39%	2.58

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (3), away team away (2). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Deren Central Stallions

• Over 2.5 in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Scored over 0.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• First-half goal in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Scored over 0.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• First-half goal in 5 of 6 matches83%

Based on recent matches: home team — 6, away team — 6

Derenmatches: 3 · 2Central Stallions

5.7Avg match total2.5

100%3/3Over 0.5100%2/2

0%0/3Under 0.50%0/2

100%3/3Over 1.5100%2/2

0%0/3Under 1.50%0/2

67%2/3Over 2.550%1/2

33%1/3Under 2.550%1/2

33%1/3Over 3.50%0/2

67%2/3Under 3.5100%2/2

33%1/3Over 4.50%0/2

67%2/3Under 4.5100%2/2

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

DerenCentral Stallions

67%2/3Scores first100%2/2

50%1/2…and wins50%1/2

50%1/2…and draws50%1/2

0%0/2…and loses0%0/2

50%1/2…and then concedes100%2/2

First to concede…

Overall

• • Deren opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • Deren avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Central Stallions opened the scoring in 100% of matches.

Deren				Central Stallions
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	0	67%	1–15	50%	1	0
2	1	67%	16–30	50%	1	0
2	0	33%	31–45	0%	0	0
3	1	67%	46–60	50%	1	0
2	0	33%	61–75	50%	0	1
3	1	100%	76–90	50%	0	1
2	0	33%	37–HT	0%	0	0
0	1	33%	87–FT	0%	0	0

• • Deren scores most in 46–60: 3 of 14 goals (21%).
• • Deren concedes most in 16–30: 1 of 3 conceded.
• • Deren scores 36% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Central Stallions scores most in 1–15: 1 of 3 goals (33%).
• • Central Stallions concedes most in 61–75: 1 of 2 conceded.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 5.33 goals per match on average.