Cerezo Osaka — Shimizu S-Pulse 1:0: match report and statistics

• 1.16 Expected goals (xG) 1.65
• 58% Possession 42%
• 13 Total shots 10
• 5 Shots on target 3
• 1 Big Chances 4
• 7 Corners 6
• 77 (370/482)Assists(242/343) 71
• 2 Yellow cards 2
• 1.14 xG on target (xGOT) 0.79
• 4 Shots off target 4
• 4 Shots blocked 3
• 5 Shots from inside the penalty area 9
• 8 Shots from outside the penalty area 1
• 0 Hit the woodwork 0
• 18 Touches in opposition box 22
• 2 Accurate through passes 0
• 4 Offsides 4
• 13 Free kicks 10
• 46 (39/84)Long Balls(26/75) 35
• 62 (87/140)Passes in final third(64/121) 53
• 14 (3/22)Crosses(9/24) 38
• 0.87 Expected assists (xA) 1.38
• 18 Throw-ins 23
• 10 Fouls 13
• 58 (7/12)Tackles(6/8) 75
• 55 Duels won 42
• 35 Clearances 42
• 4 Steals 9
• 0 Errors leading to shot 0
• 0 Errors leading to goal 0
• 2 Saves 4
• 0.79 xGOT faced 1.14
• 0.79 Goals prevented 0.14
• 7 Goal kicks 10

Tournament

Japan. J-League

Attendance

19,024

Referee

Florian Exner

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Tokyo	13	9	3	1	31:8	+23	30	WWDWW
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	13	9	2	2	32:10	+22	29	WWLWW
3	Machida Zelvia	13	8	4	1	30:10	+20	28	DDWWW
4	Kashiwa Reysol	13	9	1	3	29:19	+10	28	WWDLW
5	Vissel Kobe	13	8	2	3	21:12	+9	26	WDLWL
6	Kashima Antlers	13	7	2	4	29:22	+7	23	WLDWW
7	Kawasaki Frontale	13	6	4	3	27:22	+5	22	LWWWL
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	13	5	6	2	20:14	+6	21	WDDDD
9	Urawa Red Diamonds	13	7	0	6	21:27	-6	21	LWWWL
10	Fagiano Okayama	13	5	1	7	15:21	-6	16	LLWLL
11	Nagoya Grampus	13	4	2	7	15:21	-6	14	LDDWW
12	Cerezo Osaka	13	3	5	5	13:23	-10	14	LDDLD
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	13	4	2	7	10:22	-12	14	LLLDW
14	Kyoto Sanga	13	3	4	6	17:23	-6	13	WDDLL
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	13	3	3	7	16:21	-5	12	LLWLD
16	Gamba Osaka	13	2	6	5	14:21	-7	12	DDWDL
17	Tokyo Verdy	13	2	5	6	11:22	-11	11	WWDLL
18	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	13	2	4	7	15:24	-9	10	WDLDD
19	Mito HollyHock	13	2	3	8	12:25	-13	9	LLLLL
20	Avispa Fukuoka	13	2	1	10	13:24	-11	7	LLLLW

• Promotion - Champions League (League stage)
• Relegation - Japan. J-League Division 2

• The model expects 2.63 goals: 1.38 for Cerezo Osaka and 1.25 for Shimizu S-Pulse.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (10%).
• Corners: about 11.4 (6 — 5.4).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 5 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.38, 2nd — 1.33.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	93%	1.08
Over 1.5	50%	75%	74%	1.36
Over 2.5	50%	75%	49%	2.05
Over 3.5	25%	50%	27%	3.71
Over 4.5	0%	0%	13%	7.93

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (4), away team away (4). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Cerezo Osaka Shimizu S-Pulse

• Under 2.5 in 3 matches in a row100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 7 of 7 matches100%
• Over 0.5 goals in 6 of 6 matches100%
• First-half goal in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 5 of 5 matches100%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 6 of 7 matches86%
• Scored over 0.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Unbeaten in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Over 8.5 corners in 4 of 5 matches80%
• Over 1.5 goals in 5 of 7 matches71%
• Scored under 1.5 in 5 of 7 matches71%

Based on recent matches: home team — 6, away team — 7

Cerezo Osakamatches: 4 · 4Shimizu S-Pulse

2.25Avg match total3.0

100%4/4Over 0.5100%4/4

0%0/4Under 0.50%0/4

50%2/4Over 1.575%3/4

50%2/4Under 1.525%1/4

50%2/4Over 2.575%3/4

50%2/4Under 2.525%1/4

25%1/4Over 3.550%2/4

75%3/4Under 3.550%2/4

0%0/4Over 4.50%0/4

100%4/4Under 4.5100%4/4

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Cerezo OsakaShimizu S-Pulse

33%1/3Scores first50%2/4

100%1/1…and wins100%2/2

0%0/1…and draws0%0/2

0%0/1…and loses0%0/2

0%0/1…and then concedes50%1/2

First to concede…

Overall

• • Cerezo Osaka opened the scoring in 33% of matches.
• • Cerezo Osaka avoided defeat after conceding first in 100% of such matches.
• • Shimizu S-Pulse opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • Shimizu S-Pulse avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.

Cerezo Osaka				Shimizu S-Pulse
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
1	1	50%	1–15	25%	0	1
2	0	25%	16–30	50%	1	1
1	1	25%	31–45	25%	1	0
0	1	25%	46–60	50%	2	0
0	0	0%	61–75	50%	0	2
1	0	25%	76–90	75%	3	1
1	0	25%	37–HT	25%	1	0
0	0	0%	87–FT	50%	1	1

• • Cerezo Osaka scores most in 16–30: 2 of 5 goals (40%).
• • Cerezo Osaka concedes most in 1–15: 1 of 3 conceded.
• • Cerezo Osaka scores 20% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Shimizu S-Pulse scores most in 76–90: 3 of 7 goals (43%).
• • Shimizu S-Pulse concedes most in 61–75: 2 of 5 conceded.
• • Shimizu S-Pulse scores 43% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Cerezo OsakaShimizu S-Pulse

5.0Corners won, avg5.5

5.3Corners conceded, avg7.0

10.3Match corners, avg12.5

3.0Corners in 1st half, avg3.0

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Cerezo Osakaper matchShimizu S-Pulse

1.15xG for1.02

0.94xG against0.96

11.0Shots14.0

12.0Shots against16.0

4.3Shots on target4.5

3.0On target against5.5

14%Conversion13%

7.3Shots per goal8.0

11.3Fouls14.5

2.0Offsides1.0

• • Cerezo Osaka scores 0.35 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Cerezo Osaka concedes 0.19 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Shimizu S-Pulse scores 0.73 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Shimizu S-Pulse concedes 0.29 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 3.5 goals per match on average.