Nagoya Grampus — Gamba Osaka 3:1: match report and statistics

• 2.22 Expected goals (xG) 1.01
• 52% Possession 48%
• 21 Total shots 10
• 12 Shots on target 3
• 5 Big Chances 1
• 4 Corners 3
• 82 (342/417)Assists(326/398) 82
• 1 Yellow cards 2
• 0 Red cards 1
• 3.27 xG on target (xGOT) 1.14
• 5 Shots off target 1
• 4 Shots blocked 6
• 15 Shots from inside the penalty area 3
• 6 Shots from outside the penalty area 7
• 1 Hit the woodwork 0
• 40 Touches in opposition box 7
• 0 Accurate through passes 0
• 3 Offsides 1
• 19 Free kicks 10
• 40 (24/60)Long Balls(15/54) 28
• 71 (92/130)Passes in final third(66/95) 69
• 47 (8/17)Crosses(2/8) 25
• 1.56 Expected assists (xA) 0.85
• 18 Throw-ins 27
• 10 Fouls 19
• 67 (10/15)Tackles(12/17) 71
• 56 Duels won 37
• 19 Clearances 23
• 8 Steals 8
• 0 Errors leading to shot 0
• 0 Errors leading to goal 1
• 2 Saves 8
• 1.14 xGOT faced 3.27
• 0.14 Goals prevented 0.27
• 3 Goal kicks 6

Tournament

Japan. J-League

Season

2026/2027

Attendance

30,651

Referee

Koki Nagamine

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Tokyo	13	9	3	1	31:8	+23	30	WWDWW
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	13	9	2	2	32:10	+22	29	WWLWW
3	Machida Zelvia	13	8	4	1	30:10	+20	28	DDWWW
4	Kashiwa Reysol	13	9	1	3	29:19	+10	28	WWDLW
5	Vissel Kobe	13	8	2	3	21:12	+9	26	WDLWL
6	Kashima Antlers	13	7	2	4	29:22	+7	23	WLDWW
7	Kawasaki Frontale	13	6	4	3	27:22	+5	22	LWWWL
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	13	5	6	2	20:14	+6	21	WDDDD
9	Urawa Red Diamonds	13	7	0	6	21:27	-6	21	LWWWL
10	Fagiano Okayama	13	5	1	7	15:21	-6	16	LLWLL
11	Nagoya Grampus	13	4	2	7	15:21	-6	14	LDDWW
12	Cerezo Osaka	13	3	5	5	13:23	-10	14	LDDLD
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	13	4	2	7	10:22	-12	14	LLLDW
14	Kyoto Sanga	13	3	4	6	17:23	-6	13	WDDLL
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	13	3	3	7	16:21	-5	12	LLWLD
16	Gamba Osaka	13	2	6	5	14:21	-7	12	DDWDL
17	Tokyo Verdy	13	2	5	6	11:22	-11	11	WWDLL
18	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	13	2	4	7	15:24	-9	10	WDLDD
19	Mito HollyHock	13	2	3	8	12:25	-13	9	LLLLL
20	Avispa Fukuoka	13	2	1	10	13:24	-11	7	LLLLW

• Promotion - Champions League (League stage)
• Relegation - Japan. J-League Division 2

• The model expects 2.75 goals: 0.9 for Nagoya Grampus and 1.85 for Gamba Osaka.
• Most likely score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (11%).
• Corners: about 11.3 (6.8 — 4.5).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 16-30: 4 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.55, 2nd — 1.25.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	94%	1.07
Over 1.5	50%	80%	76%	1.32
Over 2.5	50%	60%	52%	1.93
Over 3.5	50%	20%	30%	3.37
Over 4.5	0%	20%	14%	6.91

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (2), away team away (5). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Nagoya Grampus Gamba Osaka

• Winless in 6 matches100%
• 5 defeats in a row100%
• Unbeaten in 5 matches100%
• Scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Scored under 1.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Lost 5 of 6 matches83%
• First-half goal in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Scored over 0.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Unbeaten in 5 of 6 matches83%

Based on recent matches: home team — 6, away team — 6

Nagoya Grampusmatches: 2 · 5Gamba Osaka

2.5Avg match total3.0

100%2/2Over 0.5100%5/5

0%0/2Under 0.50%0/5

50%1/2Over 1.580%4/5

50%1/2Under 1.520%1/5

50%1/2Over 2.560%3/5

50%1/2Under 2.540%2/5

50%1/2Over 3.520%1/5

50%1/2Under 3.580%4/5

0%0/2Over 4.520%1/5

100%2/2Under 4.580%4/5

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Nagoya GrampusGamba Osaka

0%0/2Scores first60%3/5

—…and wins100%3/3

—…and draws0%0/3

—…and loses0%0/3

—…and then concedes0%0/3

First to concede…

Overall

• • Nagoya Grampus opened the scoring in 0% of matches.
• • Nagoya Grampus avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.
• • Gamba Osaka opened the scoring in 60% of matches.
• • Gamba Osaka avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.

Nagoya Grampus				Gamba Osaka
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
1	1	50%	1–15	20%	0	1
0	0	0%	16–30	60%	3	1
0	1	50%	31–45	60%	2	1
0	0	0%	46–60	20%	2	0
0	0	0%	61–75	60%	2	1
1	1	50%	76–90	20%	1	0
0	1	50%	37–HT	40%	1	1
1	0	50%	87–FT	20%	1	0

• • Nagoya Grampus scores most in 1–15: 1 of 2 goals (50%).
• • Nagoya Grampus concedes most in 1–15: 1 of 3 conceded.
• • Gamba Osaka scores most in 16–30: 3 of 10 goals (30%).
• • Gamba Osaka concedes most in 1–15: 1 of 4 conceded.
• • Gamba Osaka scores 30% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Nagoya GrampusGamba Osaka

7.0Corners won, avg4.5

4.5Corners conceded, avg6.5

11.5Match corners, avg11.0

3.0Corners in 1st half, avg2.0

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Nagoya Grampusper matchGamba Osaka

0.92xG for1.42

1.48xG against1.7

15.0Shots13.0

16.0Shots against11.5

6.5Shots on target5.0

7.0On target against2.0

7%Conversion17%

15.0Shots per goal5.9

6.0Fouls10.5

1.5Offsides1.0

• • Nagoya Grampus scores 0.08 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Nagoya Grampus concedes 0.02 per match more than opponents' xG.
• • Gamba Osaka scores 0.78 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Gamba Osaka concedes 0.9 per match fewer than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 2.33 goals per match on average.