Wrexham — Watford 1:1: match report and statistics

• 1.92 Expected goals (xG) 0.65
• 59% Possession 41%
• 12 Total shots 10
• 2 Shots on target 6
• 2 Big Chances 1
• 10 Corners 3
• 82 (392/477)Assists(247/341) 72
• 2 Yellow cards 0
• 0.53 xG on target (xGOT) 1.33
• 6 Shots off target 3
• 4 Shots blocked 1
• 10 Shots from inside the penalty area 5
• 2 Shots from outside the penalty area 5
• 2 Hit the woodwork 0
• 0 Headed goals 1
• 29 Touches in opposition box 19
• 0 Accurate through passes 0
• 1 Offsides 0
• 11 Free kicks 13
• 50 (28/56)Long Balls(16/55) 29
• 73 (113/155)Passes in final third(66/108) 61
• 19 (6/32)Crosses(5/20) 25
• 1.82 Expected assists (xA) 0.58
• 23 Throw-ins 19
• 13 Fouls 11
• 71 (12/17)Tackles(14/20) 70
• 55 Duels won 58
• 19 Clearances 35
• 11 Steals 9
• 0 Errors leading to shot 1
• 0 Errors leading to goal 0
• 5 Saves 1
• 1.33 xGOT faced 0.53
• 0.33 Goals prevented -0.47
• 7 Goal kicks 9

WrexhamWatford

Top scorers

Top assists

Best rated

Tournament

England. Championship

Attendance

10,502

Referee

John Busby

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30:17	+13	28	WWDWW
2	Swansea City	13	8	2	3	20:13	+7	26	WLLWW
3	Wolverhampton Wanderers	13	7	3	3	23:16	+7	24	WWDWL
4	West Bromwich Albion	13	7	3	3	19:14	+5	24	WDWWL
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28:13	+15	23	WWDWW
6	Birmingham City	13	6	5	2	23:13	+10	23	WLWWW
7	Stoke City	13	7	2	4	20:16	+4	23	WDWLW
8	West Ham United	13	6	4	3	33:18	+15	22	LLWWD
9	Queens Park Rangers	13	5	5	3	21:16	+5	20	LWLWD
10	Sheffield United	13	5	4	4	17:15	+2	19	WDWLW
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16:15	+1	19	DWDWW
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23:21	+2	18	WLDLW
13	Blackburn Rovers	13	5	3	5	19:20	-1	18	LWLWW
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15:17	-2	18	WDLLD
15	Norwich City	13	5	0	8	23:24	-1	15	WWLLL
16	Lincoln City	13	4	3	6	14:23	-9	15	LWDLL
17	Cardiff City	13	3	5	5	19:20	-1	14	LWDWL
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15:19	-4	14	LLWLD
19	Bolton Wanderers	13	4	2	7	18:26	-8	14	LLDWL
20	Charlton Athletic	13	3	5	5	11:21	-10	14	LLLDD
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12:23	-11	11	LLWLL
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17:25	-8	9	DLLDW
23	Derby County	13	1	4	8	11:25	-14	7	LDLLD
24	Preston North End	13	1	2	10	10:27	-17	5	LDLLL

• Promotion - Premier League
• Promotion - Championship (Play-off: Round of 4)
• Promotion - Championship (Play-off: Round of 8)
• Relegation - First League

• The model expects 3.25 goals: 1.75 for Wrexham and 1.5 for Watford.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (10%), followed by 2–1 (9%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 31-45: 5 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 2.25, 2nd — 1.25.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	96%	1.04
Over 1.5	50%	100%	84%	1.20
Over 2.5	50%	100%	63%	1.59
Over 3.5	50%	50%	41%	2.45
Over 4.5	50%	0%	23%	4.38

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (2), away team away (2). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Wrexham Watford

• Winless in 4 matches100%
• Under 2.5 in 4 matches in a row100%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Under 2.5 goals in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Scored under 1.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Under 4.5 cards in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Scored over 0.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• First-half goal in 4 of 5 matches80%
• Under 5.5 cards in 4 of 5 matches80%

Based on recent matches: home team — 6, away team — 6

Wrexhammatches: 2 · 2Watford

3.0Avg match total3.5

100%2/2Over 0.5100%2/2

0%0/2Under 0.50%0/2

50%1/2Over 1.5100%2/2

50%1/2Under 1.50%0/2

50%1/2Over 2.5100%2/2

50%1/2Under 2.50%0/2

50%1/2Over 3.550%1/2

50%1/2Under 3.550%1/2

50%1/2Over 4.50%0/2

50%1/2Under 4.5100%2/2

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

WrexhamWatford

50%1/2Scores first0%0/1

100%1/1…and wins—

0%0/1…and draws—

0%0/1…and loses—

100%1/1…and then concedes—

First to concede…

Overall

• • Wrexham opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • Wrexham avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Watford opened the scoring in 0% of matches.
• • Watford avoided defeat after conceding first in 100% of such matches.

Wrexham				Watford
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
1	0	50%	1–15	0%	0	0
0	1	50%	16–30	0%	0	0
1	2	100%	31–45	50%	1	1
0	0	0%	46–60	0%	0	0
0	0	0%	61–75	50%	0	1
1	0	50%	76–90	50%	1	0
1	1	50%	37–HT	50%	1	1
0	0	0%	87–FT	0%	0	0

• • Wrexham scores most in 1–15: 1 of 3 goals (33%).
• • Wrexham concedes most in 31–45: 2 of 3 conceded.
• • Watford scores most in 31–45: 1 of 2 goals (50%).
• • Watford concedes most in 31–45: 1 of 2 conceded.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.