Crvena Zvezda — Partizan Belgrade 2:1: match report and statistics

• 3.19 Expected goals (xG) 0.93
• 51% Possession 49%
• 11 Total shots 12
• 4 Shots on target 4
• 5 Big Chances 1
• 2 Corners 4
• 85 (338/398)Assists(319/369) 86
• 6 Yellow cards 4
• 1.84 xG on target (xGOT) 0.94
• 5 Shots off target 6
• 2 Shots blocked 2
• 8 Shots from inside the penalty area 9
• 3 Shots from outside the penalty area 3
• 0 Hit the woodwork 1
• 29 Touches in opposition box 23
• 1 Accurate through passes 1
• 4 Offsides 1
• 18 Free kicks 21
• 56 (23/41)Long Balls(33/50) 66
• 71 (65/92)Passes in final third(65/96) 68
• 40 (2/5)Crosses(4/17) 24
• 1.51 Expected assists (xA) 0.91
• 10 Throw-ins 18
• 21 Fouls 18
• 82 (18/22)Tackles(8/11) 73
• 54 Duels won 46
• 21 Clearances 12
• 9 Steals 6
• 0 Errors leading to shot 1
• 0 Errors leading to goal 0
• 4 Saves 2
• 0.94 xGOT faced 1.84
• -0.06 Goals prevented -0.16
• 6 Goal kicks 8

Tournament

Superliga

Referee

Nenad Minakovic

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Crvena Zvezda	14	13	1	0	37:6	+31	40	WWWWW
2	Vojvodina Novi Sad	14	10	2	2	30:12	+18	32	WDWWD
3	Zeleznicar Pancevo	13	8	2	3	21:11	+10	26	DWWWW
4	Radnicki 1923	14	7	2	5	21:16	+5	23	WLWLL
5	IMT Novi Beograd	14	6	4	4	15:9	+6	22	DLWWD
6	Cukaricki	14	5	4	5	19:20	-1	19	DWWDL
7	Mladost Lucani	13	4	6	3	12:18	-6	18	LDLDW
8	Partizan Belgrade	14	5	2	7	24:24	0	17	WWLLW
9	Radnik Surdulica	13	4	5	4	17:17	0	17	WLWLD
10	Novi Pazar	14	4	4	6	13:16	-3	16	LWLLD
11	OFK Beograd	14	2	5	7	14:25	-11	11	LLDDL
12	Macva Sabac	14	2	4	8	11:25	-14	10	LLDDL
13	Radnicki Nis	13	2	2	9	9:23	-14	8	DLLLL
14	Zemun	14	1	3	10	7:28	-21	6	LWLLD

• Promotion - Superliga (Play-off)
• Superliga (Relegation Group)

• The model expects 3.57 goals: 2.42 for Crvena Zvezda and 1.15 for Partizan Belgrade.
• Most likely score is 2–1 (9%), followed by 2–0 (8%).
• Corners: about 7.2 (3.7 — 3.5).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 12 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.45, 2nd — 2.12.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	97%	1.03
Over 1.5	100%	100%	87%	1.15
Over 2.5	67%	100%	69%	1.45
Over 3.5	50%	80%	48%	2.10
Over 4.5	17%	0%	29%	3.49

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (6), away team away (5). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Crvena Zvezda Partizan Belgrade

• Scored in 4 matches in a row100%
• Both teams scored in 4 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 4 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 4 matches in a row100%
• Conceded over 0.5 in 9 of 9 matches100%
• Over 1.5 goals in 8 of 8 matches100%
• Won 6 of 6 matches after scoring first100%
• Over 2.5 goals in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Scored over 0.5 in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Both teams scored in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Over 3.5 cards in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Under 9.5 corners in 7 of 8 matches88%

Based on recent matches: home team — 8, away team — 9

Crvena Zvezdamatches: 6 · 5Partizan Belgrade

3.3Avg match total3.8

100%6/6Over 0.5100%5/5

0%0/6Under 0.50%0/5

100%6/6Over 1.5100%5/5

0%0/6Under 1.50%0/5

67%4/6Over 2.5100%5/5

33%2/6Under 2.50%0/5

50%3/6Over 3.580%4/5

50%3/6Under 3.520%1/5

17%1/6Over 4.50%0/5

83%5/6Under 4.5100%5/5

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Crvena ZvezdaPartizan Belgrade

83%5/6Scores first40%2/5

100%5/5…and wins50%1/2

0%0/5…and draws50%1/2

0%0/5…and loses0%0/2

20%1/5…and then concedes100%2/2

First to concede…

Overall

• • Crvena Zvezda opened the scoring in 83% of matches.
• • Crvena Zvezda avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Partizan Belgrade opened the scoring in 40% of matches.
• • Partizan Belgrade avoided defeat after conceding first in 33% of such matches.

Crvena Zvezda				Partizan Belgrade
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	0	33%	1–15	80%	1	3
2	0	33%	16–30	20%	1	0
4	1	83%	31–45	40%	1	1
5	0	67%	46–60	60%	1	2
1	1	33%	61–75	20%	0	1
3	1	67%	76–90	100%	5	3
1	0	17%	37–HT	20%	1	0
2	0	33%	87–FT	80%	3	3

• • Crvena Zvezda scores most in 46–60: 5 of 17 goals (29%).
• • Crvena Zvezda concedes most in 31–45: 1 of 3 conceded.
• • Crvena Zvezda scores 24% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Partizan Belgrade scores most in 76–90: 5 of 9 goals (56%).
• • Partizan Belgrade concedes most in 1–15: 3 of 10 conceded.
• • Partizan Belgrade scores 56% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Crvena ZvezdaPartizan Belgrade

4.2Corners won, avg4.6

2.33Corners conceded, avg3.2

6.5Match corners, avg7.8

2.0Corners in 1st half, avg1.6

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by 10 minutes (avg)

Crvena Zvezda				Partizan Belgrade
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
—	—	—	1–10	0%	0	0
—	—	—	11–20	0%	0	0
—	—	—	21–30	100%	0	1
—	—	—	31–40	0%	0	0
—	—	—	41–HT	100%	1	0
—	—	—	46–55	100%	1	0
—	—	—	56–65	0%	0	0
—	—	—	66–75	0%	0	0
—	—	—	76–85	0%	0	0
—	—	—	86–FT	100%	1	0
—	—	—	37–HT	100%	1	0
—	—	—	87–FT	100%	1	0

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Crvena Zvezdaper matchPartizan Belgrade

3.1xG for1.77

0.75xG against1.27

18.0Shots18.4

9.3Shots against12.2

7.8Shots on target6.8

3.8On target against4.0

16%Conversion10%

6.4Shots per goal10.2

8.5Fouls11.2

1.83Offsides0.8

• • Crvena Zvezda scores 0.3 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Crvena Zvezda concedes 0.25 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Partizan Belgrade scores 0.03 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Partizan Belgrade concedes 0.73 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 3.5 goals per match on average.