Rapid Wien — Sturm Graz 3:1: match report and statistics

• 2.37 Expected goals (xG) 0.76
• 55% Possession 45%
• 16 Total shots 19
• 6 Shots on target 5
• 4 Big Chances 0
• 6 Corners 4
• 81 (361/444)Assists(275/360) 76
• 2 Yellow cards 3
• 0 Red cards 1
• 2.69 xG on target (xGOT) 0.63
• 7 Shots off target 9
• 3 Shots blocked 5
• 10 Shots from inside the penalty area 7
• 6 Shots from outside the penalty area 12
• 1 Hit the woodwork 0
• 33 Touches in opposition box 20
• 0 Accurate through passes 0
• 1 Offsides 1
• 11 Free kicks 5
• 43 (27/63)Long Balls(25/54) 46
• 63 (67/107)Passes in final third(76/128) 59
• 22 (2/9)Crosses(3/14) 21
• 0.49 Expected assists (xA) 0.63
• 11 Throw-ins 25
• 5 Fouls 11
• 60 (9/15)Tackles(7/13) 54
• 39 Duels won 41
• 34 Clearances 27
• 17 Steals 11
• 2 Errors leading to shot 0
• 0 Errors leading to goal 1
• 4 Saves 3
• 0.63 xGOT faced 2.69
• -0.37 Goals prevented -0.31
• 16 Goal kicks 11

Tournament

Austria. Bundesliga

Attendance

24,689

Referee

Stefan Ebner

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Rapid Wien	11	10	0	1	33:9	+24	30	WWWWW
2	Red Bull Salzburg	11	8	3	0	29:6	+23	27	WWWDW
3	LASK Linz	11	7	1	3	26:13	+13	22	WLWLD
4	Sturm Graz	11	5	4	2	19:13	+6	19	DDWWL
5	Hartberg	11	5	2	4	20:19	+1	17	WWLWD
6	Ried	11	4	4	3	19:18	+1	16	DDWWD
7	WSG Tirol	11	3	3	5	14:17	-3	12	LDWLL
8	Rheindorf Altach	11	3	1	7	11:17	-6	10	DWLWL
9	Grazer AK	11	2	4	5	8:27	-19	10	LDLDD
10	Austria Lustenau	11	2	2	7	13:29	-16	8	LLLLL
11	Austria Wien	11	2	1	8	10:22	-12	7	LLLLD
12	Wolfsberger AC	11	1	3	7	8:20	-12	6	DLLLL

• Promotion - Bundesliga (Play-off)
• Bundesliga (Relegation Group)

• The model expects 3 goals: 2.13 for Rapid Wien and 0.88 for Sturm Graz.
• Most likely score is 2–0 (11%), followed by 1–0 (11%).
• Corners: about 8.9 (5.3 — 3.6).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 31-45: 6 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.67, 2nd — 0.96.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	95%	1.05
Over 1.5	75%	100%	80%	1.25
Over 2.5	50%	0%	58%	1.73
Over 3.5	50%	0%	35%	2.83
Over 4.5	50%	0%	18%	5.41

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (4), away team away (3). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Rapid Wien Sturm Graz

• Scored in 7 matches in a row100%
• Under 2.5 in 6 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored first in 7 of 7 matches100%
• First-half goal in 7 of 7 matches100%
• Under 2.5 goals in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Scored over 1.5 in 6 of 7 matches86%
• Unbeaten in 6 of 7 matches86%
• Under 4.5 cards in 6 of 7 matches86%
• Over 8.5 corners in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Scored under 1.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%

Based on recent matches: home team — 7, away team — 6

Rapid Wienmatches: 4 · 3Sturm Graz

4.0Avg match total2.0

100%4/4Over 0.5100%3/3

0%0/4Under 0.50%0/3

75%3/4Over 1.5100%3/3

25%1/4Under 1.50%0/3

50%2/4Over 2.50%0/3

50%2/4Under 2.5100%3/3

50%2/4Over 3.50%0/3

50%2/4Under 3.5100%3/3

50%2/4Over 4.50%0/3

50%2/4Under 4.5100%3/3

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Rapid WienSturm Graz

100%4/4Scores first67%2/3

75%3/4…and wins50%1/2

0%0/4…and draws50%1/2

25%1/4…and loses0%0/2

25%1/4…and then concedes50%1/2

First to concede…

Overall

• • Rapid Wien opened the scoring in 100% of matches.
• • Sturm Graz opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • Sturm Graz avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.

Rapid Wien				Sturm Graz
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
4	0	50%	1–15	33%	0	1
0	0	0%	16–30	33%	1	0
4	0	75%	31–45	67%	0	2
1	0	25%	46–60	0%	0	0
1	0	25%	61–75	33%	1	0
2	1	75%	76–90	33%	1	0
3	0	50%	37–HT	67%	0	2
0	0	0%	87–FT	0%	0	0

• • Rapid Wien scores most in 1–15: 4 of 12 goals (33%).
• • Rapid Wien concedes most in 76–90: 1 of 1 conceded.
• • Rapid Wien scores 25% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Sturm Graz scores most in 16–30: 1 of 3 goals (33%).
• • Sturm Graz concedes most in 31–45: 2 of 3 conceded.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Rapid WienSturm Graz

8.0Corners won, avg4.0

3.3Corners conceded, avg2.5

11.3Match corners, avg6.5

2.25Corners in 1st half, avg1.0

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by 10 minutes (avg)

Rapid Wien				Sturm Graz
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
—	—	—	1–10	0%	0	0
—	—	—	11–20	0%	0	0
—	—	—	21–30	0%	0	0
—	—	—	31–40	100%	0	1
—	—	—	41–HT	100%	0	2
—	—	—	46–55	100%	1	0
—	—	—	56–65	0%	0	0
—	—	—	66–75	100%	0	1
—	—	—	76–85	100%	1	0
—	—	—	86–FT	0%	0	0
—	—	—	37–HT	100%	0	3
—	—	—	87–FT	0%	0	0

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Rapid Wienper matchSturm Graz

3.1xG for1.24

0.89xG against1.13

25.5Shots10.0

7.3Shots against12.5

8.5Shots on target3.5

3.0On target against5.5

13%Conversion10%

7.9Shots per goal10.0

11.3Fouls16.5

2.0Offsides4.5

• • Rapid Wien scores 0.2 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Rapid Wien concedes 0.14 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Sturm Graz scores 0.24 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Sturm Graz concedes 0.13 per match fewer than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 2.67 goals per match on average.