Rostov — Akron Tolyatti 1:0: match report and statistics

• 0.41 Expected goals (xG) 0.69
• 40% Possession 60%
• 10 Total shots 15
• 4 Shots on target 5
• 0 Big Chances 0
• 1 Corners 5
• 72 (235/326)Assists(390/498) 78
• 1 Yellow cards 3
• 0.55 xG on target (xGOT) 0.24
• 5 Shots off target 6
• 1 Shots blocked 4
• 2 Shots from inside the penalty area 4
• 8 Shots from outside the penalty area 11
• 0 Hit the woodwork 2
• 6 Touches in opposition box 12
• 0 Accurate through passes 0
• 3 Offsides 0
• 11 Free kicks 17
• 34 (21/61)Long Balls(32/63) 51
• 52 (49/94)Passes in final third(83/125) 66
• 13 (1/8)Crosses(3/14) 21
• 0.33 Expected assists (xA) 0.91
• 15 Throw-ins 28
• 17 Fouls 11
• 80 (8/10)Tackles(10/12) 83
• 47 Duels won 59
• 28 Clearances 24
• 20 Steals 8
• 0 Errors leading to shot 1
• 0 Errors leading to goal 0
• 5 Saves 3
• 0.24 xGOT faced 0.55
• 0.24 Goals prevented -0.45
• 10 Goal kicks 3
• 0 Posts and crossbars 2

Tournament

Premier League

Season

2026/2027

Attendance

7,972

Referee

Danil Kashirin

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Zenit Saint Petersburg	13	10	0	3	30:13	+17	30	WWWWW
2	Dynamo Moscow	13	9	1	3	21:12	+9	28	WLWWW
3	CSKA Moscow	13	7	5	1	21:12	+9	26	DWLWW
4	Spartak Moscow	13	8	2	3	25:10	+15	26	WLWDW
5	Krasnodar	13	6	5	2	21:16	+5	23	LDDLD
6	Rostov	13	5	3	5	16:17	-1	18	WWDWL
7	Baltika Kaliningrad	13	4	5	4	17:14	+3	17	WDDDL
8	Orenburg	13	3	8	2	14:12	+2	17	DWDWD
9	Krylia Sovetov	13	3	6	4	17:20	-3	15	LWLDD
10	Rubin Kazan	13	3	6	4	13:18	-5	15	WLLLD
11	Dynamo Makhachkala	13	4	1	8	16:26	-10	13	LLDLL
12	Rodina Moscow	13	3	3	7	15:28	-13	12	WWDLD
13	Akron Tolyatti	13	2	6	5	16:23	-7	12	LWDLW
14	Lokomotiv Moscow	13	2	5	6	16:20	-4	11	LLDWD
15	Akhmat	13	2	5	6	15:19	-4	11	LLLDL
16	Fakel Voronezh	13	1	3	9	8:21	-13	6	LLWLL

• Premier League (Relegation. Play-offs)
• Relegation - FNL Cup

• The model expects 2.67 goals: 1.42 for Rostov and 1.25 for Akron Tolyatti.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (10%).
• Corners: about 7.7 (4 — 3.7).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 10 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1, 2nd — 1.67.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	83%	93%	1.07
Over 1.5	83%	67%	75%	1.34
Over 2.5	50%	50%	50%	2.00
Over 3.5	17%	50%	28%	3.58
Over 4.5	0%	17%	13%	7.54

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (6), away team away (6). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Rostov Akron Tolyatti

• Over 2.5 in 4 matches in a row100%
• 3 defeats in a row100%
• Winless in 3 matches100%
• Scored under 2.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Under 9.5 corners in 7 of 8 matches88%
• Under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored under 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Unbeaten in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Under 9.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Over 2.5 cards in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Over 3.5 cards in 7 of 9 matches78%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Rostovmatches: 6 · 6Akron Tolyatti

2.5Avg match total2.84

100%6/6Over 0.583%5/6

0%0/6Under 0.517%1/6

83%5/6Over 1.567%4/6

17%1/6Under 1.533%2/6

50%3/6Over 2.550%3/6

50%3/6Under 2.550%3/6

17%1/6Over 3.550%3/6

83%5/6Under 3.550%3/6

0%0/6Over 4.517%1/6

100%6/6Under 4.583%5/6

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

RostovAkron Tolyatti

80%4/5Scores first50%2/4

75%3/4…and wins50%1/2

25%1/4…and draws50%1/2

0%0/4…and loses0%0/2

50%2/4…and then concedes50%1/2

First to concede…

Overall

• • Rostov opened the scoring in 80% of matches.
• • Rostov avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Akron Tolyatti opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • Akron Tolyatti avoided defeat after conceding first in 100% of such matches.

Rostov				Akron Tolyatti
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	0	0%	1–15	50%	2	1
1	0	17%	16–30	0%	0	0
0	1	17%	31–45	33%	0	2
2	1	33%	46–60	17%	1	0
2	0	33%	61–75	33%	2	0
2	3	67%	76–90	50%	2	3
0	0	0%	37–HT	17%	0	1
1	2	50%	87–FT	17%	0	1

• • Rostov scores most in 46–60: 2 of 7 goals (29%).
• • Rostov concedes most in 76–90: 3 of 5 conceded.
• • Rostov scores 57% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Akron Tolyatti scores most in 1–15: 2 of 7 goals (29%).
• • Akron Tolyatti concedes most in 76–90: 3 of 6 conceded.
• • Akron Tolyatti scores 57% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

RostovAkron Tolyatti

3.8Corners won, avg3.8

3.6Corners conceded, avg4.2

7.4Match corners, avg8.0

1.4Corners in 1st half, avg2.0

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Rostovper matchAkron Tolyatti

0.89xG for1.19

1.42xG against1.22

12.6Shots11.4

11.8Shots against16.8

5.0Shots on target3.8

4.2On target against4.4

9%Conversion10%

10.8Shots per goal9.7

14.6Fouls15.2

3.2Offsides1.2

• • Rostov scores 0.28 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Rostov concedes 0.09 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Akron Tolyatti scores 0.02 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Akron Tolyatti concedes 0.45 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 2.83 goals per match on average.