Burgess Hill Town — Maldon & Tiptree 4:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

England. Premier League

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Enfield Town	14	11	1	2	43:16	+27	34	WWDWW
2	Welling United	15	11	0	4	31:15	+16	33	WWLWL
3	Eastbourne Borough	13	9	1	3	25:12	+13	28	WDWWW
4	Lewes	14	8	3	3	22:16	+6	27	DDWWW
5	Dartford	14	8	0	6	22:21	+1	24	LLLWL
6	St Albans City	12	7	2	3	24:16	+8	23	LWWWD
7	Ramsgate	14	7	1	6	29:19	+10	22	LWLWW
8	Carshalton Athletic	16	7	1	8	23:32	-9	22	LLDLL
9	Chatham Town	14	7	0	7	27:23	+4	21	LLWWL
10	Wingate & Finchley	13	6	3	4	26:25	+1	21	DWWWL
11	Dulwich Hamlet	15	6	3	6	25:26	-1	21	LWDLD
12	Aveley	15	6	2	7	25:24	+1	20	WWLWD
13	Burgess Hill Town	14	5	5	4	24:26	-2	20	LLWLW
14	Leatherhead	12	5	3	4	25:20	+5	18	WLLLD
15	Whyteleafe	15	5	3	7	26:27	-1	18	WLWWW
16	Cheshunt	15	4	6	5	17:23	-6	18	WLLDW
17	Maldon & Tiptree	17	5	2	10	23:39	-16	17	WDDWD
18	Cray Wanderers	10	4	3	3	23:15	+8	15	WLWDL
19	Brentwood Town	13	5	0	8	23:25	-2	15	LWWLW
20	Three Bridges	14	2	3	9	24:39	-15	9	LLDLW
21	Stanway Rovers	14	2	1	11	14:39	-25	7	LWLLL
22	Whitehawk	15	1	3	11	14:37	-23	6	LLDLL

• Promotion
• Promotion - England. Isthmian League (Play-off: Round of 4)
• Promotion - England. Isthmian League (Play-off: Round of 8)
• Relegation

• The model expects 4.21 goals: 3 for Burgess Hill Town and 1.21 for Maldon & Tiptree.
• Most likely score is 2–1 (8%), followed by 3–1 (8%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 31-45: 8 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 2.17, 2nd — 2.05.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	83%	100%	99%	1.02
Over 1.5	83%	100%	92%	1.08
Over 2.5	83%	75%	79%	1.26
Over 3.5	50%	75%	61%	1.65
Over 4.5	17%	75%	41%	2.43

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (6), away team away (4). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Burgess Hill Town Maldon & Tiptree

• 5 defeats in a row100%
• Winless in 5 matches100%
• Both teams scored in 4 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 4 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 4 matches in a row100%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 10 of 10 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 8 of 8 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Scored over 0.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Unbeaten in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches80%
• First-half goal in 8 of 10 matches80%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Burgess Hill Townmatches: 6 · 4Maldon & Tiptree

3.7Avg match total4.8

83%5/6Over 0.5100%4/4

17%1/6Under 0.50%0/4

83%5/6Over 1.5100%4/4

17%1/6Under 1.50%0/4

83%5/6Over 2.575%3/4

17%1/6Under 2.525%1/4

50%3/6Over 3.575%3/4

50%3/6Under 3.525%1/4

17%1/6Over 4.575%3/4

83%5/6Under 4.525%1/4

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Burgess Hill TownMaldon & Tiptree

75%3/4Scores first25%1/4

67%2/3…and wins100%1/1

33%1/3…and draws0%0/1

0%0/3…and loses0%0/1

67%2/3…and then concedes100%1/1

First to concede…

Overall

• • Burgess Hill Town opened the scoring in 75% of matches.
• • Burgess Hill Town avoided defeat after conceding first in 100% of such matches.
• • Maldon & Tiptree opened the scoring in 25% of matches.
• • Maldon & Tiptree avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.

Burgess Hill Town				Maldon & Tiptree
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	1	33%	1–15	50%	0	3
2	0	33%	16–30	50%	1	1
1	2	33%	31–45	100%	1	4
2	2	33%	46–60	100%	0	4
0	0	0%	61–75	25%	0	1
2	0	33%	76–90	50%	3	1
0	1	17%	37–HT	75%	1	2
2	0	33%	87–FT	25%	2	0

• • Burgess Hill Town scores most in 1–15: 2 of 9 goals (22%).
• • Burgess Hill Town concedes most in 31–45: 2 of 5 conceded.
• • Burgess Hill Town scores 22% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Maldon & Tiptree scores most in 76–90: 3 of 5 goals (60%).
• • Maldon & Tiptree concedes most in 31–45: 4 of 14 conceded.
• • Maldon & Tiptree scores 60% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.