Hubei Istar — Wuhan Three Towns II 1:1: match report and statistics

• 0.62 Expected goals (xG) 1.53
• 59% Possession 41%
• 12 Total shots 17
• 2 Shots on target 5
• 1 Big Chances 2
• 2 Corners 9
• 86 (488/565)Assists(321/374) 86
• 1 Yellow cards 0
• 0.14 xG on target (xGOT) 1.07
• 7 Shots off target 7
• 3 Shots blocked 5
• 7 Shots from inside the penalty area 9
• 5 Shots from outside the penalty area 8
• 0 Hit the woodwork 0
• 13 Touches in opposition box 24
• 0 Accurate through passes 0
• 1 Offsides 1
• 9 Free kicks 10
• 38 (17/45)Long Balls(32/60) 53
• 56 (40/71)Passes in final third(65/97) 67
• 40 (2/5)Crosses(4/22) 18
• 0.42 Expected assists (xA) 0.92
• 15 Throw-ins 17
• 10 Fouls 9
• 58 (11/19)Tackles(8/15) 53
• 35 Duels won 37
• 23 Clearances 18
• 4 Steals 4
• 0 Errors leading to shot 0
• 1 Errors leading to goal 0
• 4 Saves 1
• 1.07 xGOT faced 0.14
• 0.07 Goals prevented -0.86
• 9 Goal kicks 8

Tournament

China. Second League

Season

2026

Attendance

618

Referee

Junyou Wu

Group North

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Shandong Taishan II	22	12	5	5	33:21	+12	41	DLWDD
2	Shanghai Port II	22	12	4	6	36:19	+17	40	WLLLW
3	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	22	12	4	6	29:17	+12	40	DLWWW
4	Dalian Kewei	22	9	10	3	22:14	+8	37	LWDDW
5	Taian Tiankuang	22	8	7	7	25:23	+2	31	DLDLD
6	Dalian Yingbo II	22	6	10	6	21:22	-1	28	LWDWL
7	Haimen Codion	22	5	11	6	25:23	+2	26	DDWWW
8	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	22	4	14	4	13:16	-3	26	DWDWD
9	Qingdao Red Lions	22	5	10	7	22:20	+2	25	LDWDW
10	Changchun Xidu	22	3	11	8	15:28	-13	20	WDLLD
11	Beijing Institute of Technology	22	3	7	12	21:42	-21	16	WDWLL
12	Shanghai Segenda	22	2	9	11	22:39	-17	15	DLLDD

Group South

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Guizhou Guiyang Athletic	22	13	3	6	32:17	+15	42	DDLWW
2	Shenzhen 2028	22	10	7	5	37:25	+12	37	LDWLW
3	Jiangxi Lushan	22	10	5	7	25:19	+6	35	WLWWD
4	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	22	8	10	4	25:28	-3	34	WWWDW
5	Hubei Istar	22	9	7	6	29:23	+6	34	WLLLD
6	Xiamen Feilu	22	7	8	7	29:28	+1	29	LWDLL
7	Guangdong Mingtu	22	5	11	6	22:20	+2	26	LWDDW
8	Ganzhou Ruishi	22	6	8	8	19:32	-13	26	LLLDL
9	Guangzhou Dandelion	22	6	7	9	22:28	-6	25	DWDLD
10	Chengdu Rongcheng II	22	5	7	10	18:24	-6	22	LDWWL
11	Wenzhou	22	4	10	8	15:23	-8	22	WDDLD
12	Wuhan Three Towns II	22	4	7	11	20:26	-6	19	WLLWW

• Promotion - Liga 2 (Promotion - Group)
• League 2 (Relegation Group)

• The model expects 2.09 goals: 1.25 for Hubei Istar and 0.84 for Wuhan Three Towns II.
• Most likely score is 1–0 (16%), followed by 1–1 (13%).
• Corners: about 8 (3 — 5).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 1-15: 4 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.34, 2nd — 0.75.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	88%	1.14
Over 1.5	100%	33%	62%	1.62
Over 2.5	50%	33%	35%	2.89
Over 3.5	0%	0%	16%	6.31
Over 4.5	0%	0%	6%	16.49

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (2), away team away (3). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Hubei Istar Wuhan Three Towns II

• Unbeaten in 5 matches100%
• Scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Under 2.5 in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored under 1.5 in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Scored first in 5 of 5 matches100%
• Over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Scored over 0.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Unbeaten in 5 of 6 matches83%
• First-half goal in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Under 9.5 corners in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Under 4.5 cards in 5 of 6 matches83%

Based on recent matches: home team — 6, away team — 6

Hubei Istarmatches: 2 · 3Wuhan Three Towns II

2.5Avg match total1.67

100%2/2Over 0.5100%3/3

0%0/2Under 0.50%0/3

100%2/2Over 1.533%1/3

0%0/2Under 1.567%2/3

50%1/2Over 2.533%1/3

50%1/2Under 2.567%2/3

0%0/2Over 3.50%0/3

100%2/2Under 3.5100%3/3

0%0/2Over 4.50%0/3

100%2/2Under 4.5100%3/3

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Hubei IstarWuhan Three Towns II

100%2/2Scores first33%1/3

50%1/2…and wins100%1/1

0%0/2…and draws0%0/1

50%1/2…and loses0%0/1

50%1/2…and then concedes0%0/1

First to concede…

Overall

• • Hubei Istar opened the scoring in 100% of matches.
• • Wuhan Three Towns II opened the scoring in 33% of matches.
• • Wuhan Three Towns II avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.

Hubei Istar				Wuhan Three Towns II
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	0	100%	1–15	67%	0	2
0	1	50%	16–30	0%	0	0
1	0	50%	31–45	0%	0	0
0	0	0%	46–60	33%	0	1
0	0	0%	61–75	67%	2	0
0	1	50%	76–90	0%	0	0
0	0	0%	37–HT	0%	0	0
0	1	50%	87–FT	0%	0	0

• • Hubei Istar scores most in 1–15: 2 of 3 goals (67%).
• • Hubei Istar concedes most in 16–30: 1 of 2 conceded.
• • Wuhan Three Towns II scores most in 61–75: 2 of 2 goals (100%).
• • Wuhan Three Towns II concedes most in 1–15: 2 of 3 conceded.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Hubei IstarWuhan Three Towns II

3.0Corners won, avg5.0

5.0Corners conceded, avg3.0

8.0Match corners, avg8.0

0.5Corners in 1st half, avg2.67

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Hubei Istarper matchWuhan Three Towns II

0.55xG for0.89

1.21xG against0.65

10.0Shots12.3

14.5Shots against9.0

4.0Shots on target3.0

3.5On target against4.0

15%Conversion5%

6.7Shots per goal18.4

10.5Fouls13.3

2.0Offsides1.67

• • Hubei Istar scores 0.95 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Hubei Istar concedes 0.21 per match fewer than opponents' xG.
• • Wuhan Three Towns II scores 0.22 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Wuhan Three Towns II concedes 0.35 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.