Chengdu Rongcheng II — Hubei Istar 3:2: match report and statistics

• 1.68 Expected goals (xG) 2.05
• 55% Possession 45%
• 15 Total shots 14
• 5 Shots on target 4
• 0 Big Chances 1
• 1 Corners 3
• 85 (428/505)Assists(332/410) 81
• 2 Yellow cards 2
• 2.91 xG on target (xGOT) 1.49
• 7 Shots off target 5
• 3 Shots blocked 5
• 7 Shots from inside the penalty area 7
• 8 Shots from outside the penalty area 7
• 3 Hit the woodwork 0
• 16 Touches in opposition box 16
• 0 Accurate through passes 0
• 3 Offsides 4
• 13 Free kicks 19
• 29 (12/41)Long Balls(17/56) 30
• 66 (87/131)Passes in final third(36/66) 55
• 8 (1/13)Crosses(5/16) 31
• 0.54 Expected assists (xA) 0.82
• 23 Throw-ins 16
• 19 Fouls 13
• 50 (5/10)Tackles(6/8) 75
• 31 Duels won 36
• 24 Clearances 20
• 4 Steals 6
• 0 Errors leading to shot 0
• 1 Errors leading to goal 0
• 2 Saves 2
• 1.49 xGOT faced 2.91
• -0.51 Goals prevented -0.09
• 7 Goal kicks 6

Tournament

China. Second League

Attendance

876

Referee

Junyou Wu

Group North

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Shandong Taishan II	22	12	5	5	33:21	+12	41	DLWDD
2	Shanghai Port II	22	12	4	6	36:19	+17	40	WLLLW
3	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	22	12	4	6	29:17	+12	40	DLWWW
4	Dalian Kewei	22	9	10	3	22:14	+8	37	LWDDW
5	Taian Tiankuang	22	8	7	7	25:23	+2	31	DLDLD
6	Dalian Yingbo II	22	6	10	6	21:22	-1	28	LWDWL
7	Haimen Codion	22	5	11	6	25:23	+2	26	DDWWW
8	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	22	4	14	4	13:16	-3	26	DWDWD
9	Qingdao Red Lions	22	5	10	7	22:20	+2	25	LDWDW
10	Changchun Xidu	22	3	11	8	15:28	-13	20	WDLLD
11	Beijing Institute of Technology	22	3	7	12	21:42	-21	16	WDWLL
12	Shanghai Segenda	22	2	9	11	22:39	-17	15	DLLDD

Group South

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Guizhou Guiyang Athletic	22	13	3	6	32:17	+15	42	DDLWW
2	Shenzhen 2028	22	10	7	5	37:25	+12	37	LDWLW
3	Jiangxi Lushan	22	10	5	7	25:19	+6	35	WLWWD
4	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	22	8	10	4	25:28	-3	34	WWWDW
5	Hubei Istar	22	9	7	6	29:23	+6	34	WLLLD
6	Xiamen Feilu	22	7	8	7	29:28	+1	29	LWDLL
7	Guangdong Mingtu	22	5	11	6	22:20	+2	26	LWDDW
8	Ganzhou Ruishi	22	6	8	8	19:32	-13	26	LLLDL
9	Guangzhou Dandelion	22	6	7	9	22:28	-6	25	DWDLD
10	Chengdu Rongcheng II	22	5	7	10	18:24	-6	22	LDWWL
11	Wenzhou	22	4	10	8	15:23	-8	22	WDDLD
12	Wuhan Three Towns II	22	4	7	11	20:26	-6	19	WLLWW

• Promotion - Liga 2 (Promotion - Group)
• League 2 (Relegation Group)

• The model expects 3.25 goals: 1.63 for Chengdu Rongcheng II and 1.63 for Hubei Istar.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (10%), followed by 1–2 (8%).
• Corners: about 10.1 (5.9 — 4.3).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 61-75: 8 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.25, 2nd — 2.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	75%	75%	96%	1.04
Over 1.5	50%	75%	84%	1.20
Over 2.5	50%	75%	63%	1.59
Over 3.5	25%	50%	41%	2.45
Over 4.5	25%	50%	23%	4.38

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (4), away team away (4). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Chengdu Rongcheng II Hubei Istar

• Winless in 3 matches100%
• Under 2.5 in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored under 1.5 in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Under 4.5 cards in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Scored first in 6 of 7 matches86%
• Under 2.5 goals in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Over 7.5 corners in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Under 4.5 cards in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Under 3.5 goals in 7 of 9 matches78%
• Scored under 2.5 in 7 of 9 matches78%

Based on recent matches: home team — 9, away team — 9

Chengdu Rongcheng IImatches: 4 · 4Hubei Istar

2.5Avg match total4.0

75%3/4Over 0.575%3/4

25%1/4Under 0.525%1/4

50%2/4Over 1.575%3/4

50%2/4Under 1.525%1/4

50%2/4Over 2.575%3/4

50%2/4Under 2.525%1/4

25%1/4Over 3.550%2/4

75%3/4Under 3.550%2/4

25%1/4Over 4.550%2/4

75%3/4Under 4.550%2/4

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Chengdu Rongcheng IIHubei Istar

0%0/3Scores first100%3/3

—…and wins67%2/3

—…and draws33%1/3

—…and loses0%0/3

—…and then concedes100%3/3

First to concede…

Overall

• • Chengdu Rongcheng II opened the scoring in 0% of matches.
• • Chengdu Rongcheng II avoided defeat after conceding first in 33% of such matches.
• • Hubei Istar opened the scoring in 100% of matches.

Chengdu Rongcheng II				Hubei Istar
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	1	25%	1–15	25%	1	0
2	0	25%	16–30	75%	3	0
0	1	25%	31–45	50%	2	0
1	0	25%	46–60	25%	0	1
1	2	50%	61–75	50%	2	3
2	0	25%	76–90	50%	1	3
0	0	0%	37–HT	25%	1	0
2	0	25%	87–FT	50%	0	2

• • Chengdu Rongcheng II scores most in 16–30: 2 of 6 goals (33%).
• • Chengdu Rongcheng II concedes most in 61–75: 2 of 4 conceded.
• • Chengdu Rongcheng II scores 50% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Hubei Istar scores most in 16–30: 3 of 9 goals (33%).
• • Hubei Istar concedes most in 61–75: 3 of 7 conceded.
• • Hubei Istar scores 33% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Chengdu Rongcheng IIHubei Istar

5.3Corners won, avg2.5

6.0Corners conceded, avg6.5

11.3Match corners, avg9.0

1.75Corners in 1st half, avg0.5

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Chengdu Rongcheng IIper matchHubei Istar

1.08xG for1.25

0.76xG against1.17

11.0Shots9.8

11.5Shots against12.5

3.8Shots on target4.3

4.3On target against4.3

14%Conversion23%

7.3Shots per goal4.3

16.8Fouls9.3

0.75Offsides0.0

• • Chengdu Rongcheng II scores 0.42 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Chengdu Rongcheng II concedes 0.24 per match more than opponents' xG.
• • Hubei Istar scores 1 per match above its xG — finishing better than chances suggest.
• • Hubei Istar concedes 0.58 per match more than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.