Jiangxi Lushan — Shenzhen 2028 1:2: match report and statistics

• 0.41 Expected goals (xG) 1.17
• 53% Possession 47%
• 10 Total shots 13
• 3 Shots on target 6
• 1 Big Chances 1
• 2 Corners 3
• 81 (316/392)Assists(265/341) 78
• 1 Yellow cards 1
• 0.71 xG on target (xGOT) 1.8
• 4 Shots off target 3
• 3 Shots blocked 4
• 5 Shots from inside the penalty area 6
• 5 Shots from outside the penalty area 7
• 0 Hit the woodwork 0
• 0 Headed goals 1
• 20 Touches in opposition box 22
• 0 Accurate through passes 0
• 3 Offsides 0
• 13 Free kicks 12
• 52 (40/77)Long Balls(27/64) 42
• 57 (56/99)Passes in final third(59/93) 63
• 23 (5/22)Crosses(9/15) 60
• 0.51 Expected assists (xA) 0.86
• 22 Throw-ins 25
• 12 Fouls 13
• 75 (12/16)Tackles(9/11) 82
• 41 Duels won 28
• 13 Clearances 19
• 2 Steals 3
• 0 Errors leading to shot 0
• 0 Errors leading to goal 0
• 4 Saves 2
• 1.8 xGOT faced 0.71
• -0.2 Goals prevented -0.29
• 7 Goal kicks 8

Tournament

China. Second League

Attendance

2,746

Referee

Jin Wang

Group North

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Shandong Taishan II	22	12	5	5	33:21	+12	41	DLWDD
2	Shanghai Port II	22	12	4	6	36:19	+17	40	WLLLW
3	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	22	12	4	6	29:17	+12	40	DLWWW
4	Dalian Kewei	22	9	10	3	22:14	+8	37	LWDDW
5	Taian Tiankuang	22	8	7	7	25:23	+2	31	DLDLD
6	Dalian Yingbo II	22	6	10	6	21:22	-1	28	LWDWL
7	Haimen Codion	22	5	11	6	25:23	+2	26	DDWWW
8	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	22	4	14	4	13:16	-3	26	DWDWD
9	Qingdao Red Lions	22	5	10	7	22:20	+2	25	LDWDW
10	Changchun Xidu	22	3	11	8	15:28	-13	20	WDLLD
11	Beijing Institute of Technology	22	3	7	12	21:42	-21	16	WDWLL
12	Shanghai Segenda	22	2	9	11	22:39	-17	15	DLLDD

Group South

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Guizhou Guiyang Athletic	22	13	3	6	32:17	+15	42	DDLWW
2	Shenzhen 2028	22	10	7	5	37:25	+12	37	LDWLW
3	Jiangxi Lushan	22	10	5	7	25:19	+6	35	WLWWD
4	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	22	8	10	4	25:28	-3	34	WWWDW
5	Hubei Istar	22	9	7	6	29:23	+6	34	WLLLD
6	Xiamen Feilu	22	7	8	7	29:28	+1	29	LWDLL
7	Guangdong Mingtu	22	5	11	6	22:20	+2	26	LWDDW
8	Ganzhou Ruishi	22	6	8	8	19:32	-13	26	LLLDL
9	Guangzhou Dandelion	22	6	7	9	22:28	-6	25	DWDLD
10	Chengdu Rongcheng II	22	5	7	10	18:24	-6	22	LDWWL
11	Wenzhou	22	4	10	8	15:23	-8	22	WDDLD
12	Wuhan Three Towns II	22	4	7	11	20:26	-6	19	WLLWW

• Promotion - Liga 2 (Promotion - Group)
• League 2 (Relegation Group)

• The model expects 1.75 goals: 0.75 for Jiangxi Lushan and 1 for Shenzhen 2028.
• Most likely score is 0–0 (17%), followed by 0–1 (17%).
• Corners: about 8.5 (4 — 4.5).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 16-30: 5 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.13, 2nd — 0.63.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	75%	75%	83%	1.21
Over 1.5	50%	75%	52%	1.92
Over 2.5	0%	50%	26%	3.91
Over 3.5	0%	25%	10%	9.92
Over 4.5	0%	0%	3%	30.39

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (4), away team away (4). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Jiangxi Lushan Shenzhen 2028

• Unbeaten in 7 matches100%
• Under 3.5 goals in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Scored under 2.5 in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Under 9.5 corners in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Scored over 0.5 in 6 of 7 matches86%
• Conceded under 1.5 in 6 of 7 matches86%
• Over 2.5 cards in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Over 1.5 goals in 5 of 7 matches71%
• Both teams scored in 5 of 7 matches71%
• First-half goal in 5 of 7 matches71%
• Over 7.5 corners in 5 of 7 matches71%

Based on recent matches: home team — 6, away team — 7

Jiangxi Lushanmatches: 4 · 4Shenzhen 2028

1.25Avg match total2.25

75%3/4Over 0.575%3/4

25%1/4Under 0.525%1/4

50%2/4Over 1.575%3/4

50%2/4Under 1.525%1/4

0%0/4Over 2.550%2/4

100%4/4Under 2.550%2/4

0%0/4Over 3.525%1/4

100%4/4Under 3.575%3/4

0%0/4Over 4.50%0/4

100%4/4Under 4.5100%4/4

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Jiangxi LushanShenzhen 2028

33%1/3Scores first67%2/3

100%1/1…and wins0%0/2

0%0/1…and draws100%2/2

0%0/1…and loses0%0/2

0%0/1…and then concedes100%2/2

First to concede…

Overall

• • Jiangxi Lushan opened the scoring in 33% of matches.
• • Jiangxi Lushan avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Shenzhen 2028 opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • Shenzhen 2028 avoided defeat after conceding first in 100% of such matches.

Jiangxi Lushan				Shenzhen 2028
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
0	0	0%	1–15	50%	1	1
1	0	25%	16–30	75%	3	1
1	0	25%	31–45	25%	0	1
0	0	0%	46–60	0%	0	0
0	3	50%	61–75	0%	0	0
0	0	0%	76–90	50%	1	1
0	0	0%	37–HT	0%	0	0
0	0	0%	87–FT	25%	1	0

• • Jiangxi Lushan scores most in 16–30: 1 of 2 goals (50%).
• • Jiangxi Lushan concedes most in 61–75: 3 of 3 conceded.
• • Shenzhen 2028 scores most in 16–30: 3 of 5 goals (60%).
• • Shenzhen 2028 concedes most in 1–15: 1 of 4 conceded.
• • Shenzhen 2028 scores 20% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Jiangxi LushanShenzhen 2028

3.0Corners won, avg6.3

2.75Corners conceded, avg5.0

5.8Match corners, avg11.3

1.5Corners in 1st half, avg4.0

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

Jiangxi Lushanper matchShenzhen 2028

0.81xG for1.3

0.41xG against1.24

9.0Shots14.8

9.8Shots against12.8

2.5Shots on target4.8

2.75On target against4.3

6%Conversion8%

18.0Shots per goal11.8

16.0Fouls9.0

1.33Offsides1.5

• • Jiangxi Lushan scores 0.31 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Jiangxi Lushan concedes 0.34 per match more than opponents' xG.
• • Shenzhen 2028 scores 0.05 per match below its xG — wasteful in front of goal.
• • Shenzhen 2028 concedes 0.24 per match fewer than opponents' xG.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.