Stourbridge — Real Bedford 1:4: match report and statistics

Tournament

England. Premier League

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Real Bedford	16	11	2	3	40:22	+18	35	WLLLD
2	Bury Town	16	10	2	4	28:25	+3	32	LDLDW
3	Bromsgrove	14	9	4	1	28:14	+14	31	WDDWD
4	Kettering Town	15	8	4	3	29:17	+12	28	WLWWL
5	Rushall Olympic	16	9	0	7	32:25	+7	27	LLWWL
6	Alvechurch	14	7	5	2	27:13	+14	26	WDDDL
7	Peterborough Sports	15	7	5	3	31:25	+6	26	WLWWW
8	Needham Market	15	7	4	4	32:23	+9	25	DDWWW
9	Anstey Nomads	14	6	5	3	27:21	+6	23	LWDWD
10	Halesowen Town	13	7	2	4	20:18	+2	23	WWLWD
11	Stourbridge	14	6	4	4	19:17	+2	22	WWLWW
12	Racing Club Warwick	15	5	5	5	22:19	+3	20	WLWWD
13	Redditch United	13	4	6	3	22:20	+2	18	DWDWD
14	Stratford Town	15	3	7	5	21:27	-6	16	WDDDW
15	Leiston	13	4	3	6	23:26	-3	15	LWLDL
16	Banbury United	15	3	5	7	18:28	-10	14	DLWDL
17	Worcester City	13	3	4	6	15:17	-2	13	WWLLD
18	Hitchin Town	15	3	4	8	17:23	-6	13	LWWLL
19	Bishop's Stortford	15	4	1	10	18:28	-10	13	LLWLL
20	Leamington	15	2	4	9	21:30	-9	10	LLLLD
21	Leighton Town	14	1	3	10	15:32	-17	6	LDLLL
22	Stamford	15	1	1	13	4:39	-35	4	LWLLD

• Promotion - England. National League North
• Promotion - England. Southern Premier League. Central (Play-off: Round of 4)
• Promotion - England. Southern Premier League. Central (Play-off: Round of 8)
• Relegation

• The model expects 2.88 goals: 0.88 for Stourbridge and 2 for Real Bedford.
• Most likely score is 0–1 (11%), followed by 0–2 (11%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 1-15: 5 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.88, 2nd — 1.13.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	100%	100%	94%	1.06
Over 1.5	100%	100%	78%	1.28
Over 2.5	50%	50%	55%	1.82
Over 3.5	50%	25%	32%	3.08
Over 4.5	0%	0%	16%	6.09

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (4), away team away (4). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Stourbridge Real Bedford

• 9 wins in a row100%
• Unbeaten in 9 matches100%
• Scored in 9 matches in a row100%
• Winless in 5 matches100%
• Both teams scored in 4 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 4 matches in a row100%
• Scored over 1.5 in 9 of 9 matches100%
• Over 1.5 goals in 7 of 7 matches100%
• Scored under 2.5 in 7 of 7 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 7 of 7 matches100%
• Under 3.5 cards in 6 of 6 matches100%
• First-half goal in 8 of 9 matches89%

Based on recent matches: home team — 7, away team — 9

Stourbridgematches: 4 · 4Real Bedford

3.0Avg match total2.75

100%4/4Over 0.5100%4/4

0%0/4Under 0.50%0/4

100%4/4Over 1.5100%4/4

0%0/4Under 1.50%0/4

50%2/4Over 2.550%2/4

50%2/4Under 2.550%2/4

50%2/4Over 3.525%1/4

50%2/4Under 3.575%3/4

0%0/4Over 4.50%0/4

100%4/4Under 4.5100%4/4

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

StourbridgeReal Bedford

33%1/3Scores first67%2/3

100%1/1…and wins100%2/2

0%0/1…and draws0%0/2

0%0/1…and loses0%0/2

0%0/1…and then concedes0%0/2

First to concede…

Overall

• • Stourbridge opened the scoring in 33% of matches.
• • Stourbridge avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.
• • Real Bedford opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • Real Bedford avoided defeat after conceding first in 100% of such matches.

Stourbridge				Real Bedford
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	2	75%	1–15	25%	0	1
1	0	25%	16–30	25%	1	0
0	0	0%	31–45	25%	2	0
0	1	25%	46–60	25%	1	0
0	0	0%	61–75	50%	2	0
1	1	50%	76–90	25%	1	0
0	0	0%	37–HT	25%	1	0
1	0	25%	87–FT	0%	0	0

• • Stourbridge scores most in 1–15: 2 of 4 goals (50%).
• • Stourbridge concedes most in 1–15: 2 of 4 conceded.
• • Stourbridge scores 25% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Real Bedford scores most in 31–45: 2 of 7 goals (29%).
• • Real Bedford concedes most in 1–15: 1 of 1 conceded.
• • Real Bedford scores 43% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.