Araz-Naxcıvan — Neftchi Baku: statistics, head-to-head and preview

Tournament

Premier League

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Neftchi Baku	10	6	3	1	25:11	+14	21	WDDDW
2	Sabah Baku	9	6	2	1	20:4	+16	20	LDWDW
3	Qarabag	9	5	4	0	14:7	+7	19	DDDWW
4	Turan Tovuz	10	5	3	2	11:8	+3	18	WDLWW
5	Kapaz	9	5	2	2	10:9	+1	17	WWDWD
6	Zira	10	4	4	2	14:14	0	16	DWDDL
7	Shamakhi	10	3	4	3	15:14	+1	13	LLWDW
8	İmisli	10	3	1	6	9:15	-6	10	LWWLL
9	Sumqayit	9	2	3	4	13:14	-1	9	DLWWD
10	Gabala	10	2	2	6	5:16	-11	8	DWLLL
11	Shafa Baku	10	1	1	8	6:18	-12	4	DLLLL
12	Araz-Naxcıvan	10	0	3	7	9:21	-12	3	DLLLL

• Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
• Promotion - UEFA Conference League (Qualification)
• Premier League (Relegation. Play-offs)
• Relegation - I-League

• The model expects 3.01 goals: 1.2 for Araz-Naxcıvan and 1.81 for Neftchi Baku.
• Most likely score is 1–1 (11%), followed by 1–2 (10%).
• Corners: about 9.2 (4.4 — 4.8).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in 76-90: 10 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.5, 2nd — 1.51.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	89%	100%	95%	1.05
Over 1.5	67%	71%	80%	1.25
Over 2.5	44%	71%	58%	1.73
Over 3.5	33%	57%	36%	2.82
Over 4.5	11%	43%	19%	5.36

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (9), away team away (7). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Araz-Naxcıvan Neftchi Baku

• Unbeaten in 7 matches100%
• Over 2.5 in 4 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 4 matches in a row100%
• Both teams scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 3 matches in a row100%
• Scored under 2.5 in 9 of 10 matches90%
• First-half goal in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Unbeaten in 9 of 10 matches90%
• First-half goal in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Scored first in 8 of 9 matches89%
• Over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Conceded over 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

Araz-Naxcıvanmatches: 9 · 7Neftchi Baku

2.44Avg match total3.6

89%8/9Over 0.5100%7/7

11%1/9Under 0.50%0/7

67%6/9Over 1.571%5/7

33%3/9Under 1.529%2/7

44%4/9Over 2.571%5/7

56%5/9Under 2.529%2/7

33%3/9Over 3.557%4/7

67%6/9Under 3.543%3/7

11%1/9Over 4.543%3/7

89%8/9Under 4.557%4/7

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Araz-NaxcıvanNeftchi Baku

50%4/8Scores first86%6/7

50%2/4…and wins83%5/6

50%2/4…and draws17%1/6

0%0/4…and loses0%0/6

75%3/4…and then concedes67%4/6

First to concede…

Overall

• • Araz-Naxcıvan opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • Araz-Naxcıvan avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Neftchi Baku opened the scoring in 86% of matches.
• • Neftchi Baku avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.

Araz-Naxcıvan				Neftchi Baku
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	1	33%	1–15	57%	4	0
1	1	22%	16–30	71%	3	3
3	1	44%	31–45	57%	2	2
0	3	33%	46–60	43%	3	0
2	3	33%	61–75	29%	1	2
2	3	56%	76–90	43%	3	2
0	0	0%	37–HT	29%	0	2
0	1	11%	87–FT	29%	1	2

• • Araz-Naxcıvan scores most in 31–45: 3 of 10 goals (30%).
• • Araz-Naxcıvan concedes most in 46–60: 3 of 12 conceded.
• • Araz-Naxcıvan scores 40% of goals after the 60th minute.
• • Neftchi Baku scores most in 1–15: 4 of 16 goals (25%).
• • Neftchi Baku concedes most in 16–30: 3 of 9 conceded.
• • Neftchi Baku scores 25% of goals after the 60th minute.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Averages per match

Araz-NaxcıvanNeftchi Baku

4.1Corners won, avg4.9

4.7Corners conceded, avg4.7

8.9Match corners, avg9.6

1.43Corners in 1st half, avg2.86

Match total

1st half total

Team total

Corner handicap

Corners by minute are counted only for matches with full text commentary.

From the team's point of view: W — winning, D — draw, L — losing.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 3.5 goals per match on average.