Nottingham Panthers — Guildford Flames 6:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

EIHL. United Kingdom. Elite League

Season

2023/2024

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Sheffield Steelers	54	39	0	8	228:113	+115	91	LWWWW
2	Cardiff Devils	54	30	0	14	210:151	+59	77	WLWWL
3	Belfast Giants	54	28	0	15	182:147	+35	71	WLLWW
4	Manchester Storm	54	19	0	20	142:154	-12	61	LLWLL
5	Guildford Flames	54	17	0	20	160:165	-5	58	LWWLL
6	Coventry Blaze	54	11	0	25	147:185	-38	52	WWLLL
7	Dundee Stars	54	16	0	25	169:198	-29	51	WLLWW
8	Fife Flyers	54	14	0	23	166:202	-36	51	LWLWL
9	Nottingham Panthers	54	15	0	25	165:195	-30	50	WWLWW
10	Glasgow Clan	54	10	0	24	175:234	-59	49	LLWLL

• Promotion - Elite League (Play-off: Quater Finals)

• The model expects 5.75 goals: 3.38 for Nottingham Panthers and 2.38 for Guildford Flames.
• Most likely score is 3–2 (6%), followed by 2–2 (5%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in P3: 12 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.75, 2nd — 1.13.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	—	—	100%	1.00
Over 1.5	—	—	98%	1.02
Over 2.5	—	—	93%	1.08
Over 3.5	100%	100%	83%	1.21
Over 4.5	100%	100%	68%	1.47

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (4), away team away (1). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Nottingham Panthers Guildford Flames

• Both teams scored in 6 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 6 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 6 matches in a row100%
• Over 4.5 goals in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Scored over 1.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Conceded over 1.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%

Based on recent matches: home team — 6, away team — 2

Nottingham Panthersmatches: 4 · 1Guildford Flames

6.5Avg match total5.0

100%4/4Over 3.5100%1/1

0%0/4Under 3.50%0/1

100%4/4Over 4.5100%1/1

0%0/4Under 4.50%0/1

75%3/4Over 5.50%0/1

25%1/4Under 5.5100%1/1

25%1/4Over 6.50%0/1

75%3/4Under 6.5100%1/1

25%1/4Over 7.50%0/1

75%3/4Under 7.5100%1/1

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

Nottingham PanthersGuildford Flames

50%2/4Scores first100%1/1

100%2/2…and wins0%0/1

0%0/2…and draws0%0/1

0%0/2…and loses100%1/1

100%2/2…and then concedes100%1/1

First to concede…

Overall

• • Nottingham Panthers opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • Nottingham Panthers avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.
• • Guildford Flames opened the scoring in 100% of matches.

Nottingham Panthers				Guildford Flames
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
6	4	100%	Period 1	100%	1	0
2	3	50%	Period 2	100%	1	0
6	4	100%	Period 3	100%	0	2
1	0	100%	Period 4	0%	0	0

• • Nottingham Panthers scores most in Period 1: 6 of 15 goals (40%).
• • Nottingham Panthers concedes most in Period 1: 4 of 11 conceded.
• • Guildford Flames scores most in Period 1: 1 of 2 goals (50%).
• • Guildford Flames concedes most in Period 3: 2 of 3 conceded.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 5.33 goals per match on average.