Loko — Kapitan Stupino 6:1: match report and statistics

Tournament

Minor Hockey League

Western Conference - Golden Division

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Loko	60	44	0	5	276:107	+169	105	WWWWL
2	MHC Dynamo Moscow	60	34	0	13	223:138	+85	90	WLWWW
3	MHC Spartak	60	37	0	15	233:147	+86	87	WWLLW
4	SKA-1946	60	36	0	13	225:133	+92	86	WWWLW
5	Krasnaya Armiya	60	32	0	14	202:135	+67	86	LLLLL
6	Mikhailov Hockey Academy	60	30	0	19	190:151	+39	77	LWWLW
7	Dynamo-Shinnik	60	25	0	17	174:138	+36	77	LLLLW
8	MHC Dynamo Saint Petersburg	60	32	0	20	198:165	+33	75	LWWWW
9	Almaz	60	28	0	26	185:184	+1	67	LLWLW

Western Conference - Silver Division

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Taifun	62	25	0	23	160:159	+1	70	LWWLL
2	Krylya Sovetov	62	24	0	21	169:178	-9	70	WWLLW
3	Akademiya SKA	62	24	0	25	175:203	-28	66	LLLLW
4	MHC Spartak MAX	62	20	0	28	196:211	-15	62	LWLLL
5	AKM-Junior Novomoskovsk	62	21	0	30	166:189	-23	60	LWLWW
6	Sakhalinskie Akuly	62	20	0	33	149:172	-23	57	WLWWW
7	Amurskie Tigry	62	22	0	31	142:196	-54	56	LWLLW
8	Kapitan Stupino	62	23	0	33	163:190	-27	55	WLWWW
9	Krasnaya Mashina Atlant	62	23	0	32	165:194	-29	55	WWWWW
10	MHC Dynamo Karelia	62	8	0	47	155:306	-151	27	WLLLL
11	Krasnaya Mashina-Yunior	62	2	0	56	102:313	-211	10	LLWLL

Eastern Conference - Golden Division

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Omskye Yastreby	58	35	0	12	219:113	+106	86	WWWWW
2	Stalnye Lisy Magnitogorsk	58	33	0	14	215:141	+74	83	WWWWL
3	Irbis	58	32	0	15	180:119	+61	81	WLLWL
4	Tolpar Ufa	58	26	0	14	213:155	+58	77	LWWWL
5	Avto Yekaterinburg	58	34	0	18	200:167	+33	76	WWWWW
6	Chaika Nizhny Novgorod	58	28	0	18	170:152	+18	74	LWWWW
7	Mamonty Yugry	58	25	0	17	164:137	+27	74	WWLWL
8	Belye Medvedi	58	26	0	22	176:165	+11	69	LWLWW
9	Kuznetskie Medvedi	58	15	0	27	147:190	-43	54	LLLLL

Eastern Conference - Silver Division

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Loko-76	58	27	0	15	173:130	+43	78	LLLWL
2	Sibirskie Snaypery	58	31	0	18	189:133	+56	75	WWWWL
3	Ladya Tolyatti	58	28	0	20	164:127	+37	75	LLWWW
4	Reaktor	58	22	0	24	188:186	+2	61	WLLLL
5	Sputnik Almetyevsk	60	17	0	32	193:251	-58	52	LLLLW
6	Krasnoyarskie Rysi	58	16	0	31	133:175	-42	48	WLWLW
7	MHK Molot	58	14	0	30	162:217	-55	48	WWLLL
8	AKM-Junior Novomoskovsk	60	14	0	35	142:234	-92	42	LWLLL
9	Snezhnye Barsy	58	10	0	44	118:253	-135	25	WLLWL
10	Tyumenskiy Legion	58	9	0	45	112:252	-140	24	LLLLL

• Promotion - MHL (Play-offs)

• The model expects 5.9 goals: 3.57 for Loko and 2.34 for Kapitan Stupino.
• Most likely score is 3–2 (6%), followed by 4–2 (5%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in P2: 19 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.44, 2nd — 2.57.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	—	—	100%	1.00
Over 1.5	—	—	98%	1.02
Over 2.5	—	—	93%	1.07
Over 3.5	100%	60%	84%	1.19
Over 4.5	67%	40%	70%	1.43

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (3), away team away (5). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams Loko Kapitan Stupino

• 6 wins in a row100%
• Unbeaten in 6 matches100%
• Both teams scored in 6 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 6 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 6 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 4 matches in a row100%
• Scored over 2.5 in 6 of 6 matches100%
• Over 4.5 goals in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Conceded under 3.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Under 7.5 goals in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Scored under 2.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%

Based on recent matches: home team — 6, away team — 6

Lokomatches: 3 · 5Kapitan Stupino

7.0Avg match total4.8

100%3/3Over 3.560%3/5

0%0/3Under 3.540%2/5

67%2/3Over 4.540%2/5

33%1/3Under 4.560%3/5

67%2/3Over 5.540%2/5

33%1/3Under 5.560%3/5

67%2/3Over 6.540%2/5

33%1/3Under 6.560%3/5

33%1/3Over 7.520%1/5

67%2/3Under 7.580%4/5

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

LokoKapitan Stupino

67%2/3Scores first20%1/5

100%2/2…and wins100%1/1

0%0/2…and draws0%0/1

0%0/2…and loses0%0/1

100%2/2…and then concedes0%0/1

First to concede…

Overall

• • Loko opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • Loko avoided defeat after conceding first in 100% of such matches.
• • Kapitan Stupino opened the scoring in 20% of matches.
• • Kapitan Stupino avoided defeat after conceding first in 25% of such matches.

Loko				Kapitan Stupino
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
3	2	67%	Period 1	60%	1	5
6	4	100%	Period 2	80%	5	4
3	2	67%	Period 3	80%	4	5
0	0	0%	Period 4	—	—	—
2	1	100%	Period 5	—	—	—

• • Loko scores most in Period 2: 6 of 14 goals (43%).
• • Loko concedes most in Period 2: 4 of 9 conceded.
• • Kapitan Stupino scores most in Period 2: 5 of 10 goals (50%).
• • Kapitan Stupino concedes most in Period 1: 5 of 14 conceded.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 5.17 goals per match on average.