HK Mogilev — Yunost Minsk 2:3: match report and statistics

Tournament

Belarus. Extraliga

Season

2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	Yunost Minsk	52	37	0	9	175:84	+91	85	WWWWL
2	Shakhtyor Soligorsk	52	29	0	10	154:113	+41	77	WWWWW
3	Lida	52	28	0	14	147:114	+33	71	WLWLW
4	Vitebsk	51	31	0	13	145:103	+42	71	LWWWW
5	Slavutich Smolensk	52	26	0	14	165:127	+38	71	LWWWW
6	Metallurg Zhlobin	52	27	0	14	149:125	+24	70	WLLWL
7	Dinamo-Maladzyechna	51	28	0	14	160:113	+47	68	WLLLW
8	Brest	52	19	0	25	130:133	-3	52	WLLWW
9	Gomel	52	15	0	27	115:133	-18	48	LWWLL
10	Neman	52	18	0	26	116:127	-11	48	WLLLL
11	Khimik Novopolotsk	52	16	0	27	122:159	-37	44	LWLWW
12	Lokomotiv Orsha	52	12	0	33	102:169	-67	32	LLLLL
13	HK Mogilev	52	7	0	37	121:213	-92	27	LLLLL
14	Aviator Baranavichy	52	8	0	38	96:184	-88	24	LLWLL

• Promotion - Extraliga (Play-off: Round of 8)
• Promotion - Extraliga (Play-off: Round of 16)

• The model expects 6.5 goals: 3.5 for HK Mogilev and 3 for Yunost Minsk.
• Most likely score is 3–2 (5%), followed by 3–3 (5%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in P1: 16 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 2.75, 2nd — 1.88.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	—	—	100%	1.00
Over 1.5	—	—	99%	1.01
Over 2.5	—	—	96%	1.04
Over 3.5	100%	100%	89%	1.13
Over 4.5	75%	50%	78%	1.29

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (4), away team away (2). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams HK Mogilev Yunost Minsk

• Over 2.5 in 6 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 6 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 6 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 6 matches in a row100%
• Both teams scored in 5 matches in a row100%
• 3 defeats in a row100%
• Winless in 3 matches100%
• Over 5.5 goals in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Scored over 1.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Conceded over 1.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Both teams scored in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Over 3.5 goals in 5 of 6 matches83%

Based on recent matches: home team — 6, away team — 6

HK Mogilevmatches: 4 · 2Yunost Minsk

6.5Avg match total6.5

100%4/4Over 3.5100%2/2

0%0/4Under 3.50%0/2

75%3/4Over 4.550%1/2

25%1/4Under 4.550%1/2

75%3/4Over 5.550%1/2

25%1/4Under 5.550%1/2

75%3/4Over 6.550%1/2

25%1/4Under 6.550%1/2

25%1/4Over 7.550%1/2

75%3/4Under 7.550%1/2

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

HK MogilevYunost Minsk

50%2/4Scores first50%1/2

50%1/2…and wins0%0/1

0%0/2…and draws0%0/1

50%1/2…and loses100%1/1

50%1/2…and then concedes100%1/1

First to concede…

Overall

• • HK Mogilev opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • HK Mogilev avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • Yunost Minsk opened the scoring in 50% of matches.
• • Yunost Minsk avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.

HK Mogilev				Yunost Minsk
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
4	6	100%	Period 1	100%	2	4
3	2	100%	Period 2	50%	3	2
5	6	100%	Period 3	100%	0	2

• • HK Mogilev scores most in Period 3: 5 of 12 goals (42%).
• • HK Mogilev concedes most in Period 1: 6 of 14 conceded.
• • Yunost Minsk scores most in Period 2: 3 of 5 goals (60%).
• • Yunost Minsk concedes most in Period 1: 4 of 8 conceded.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 4.17 goals per match on average.