BO Ostrava — VSE Falcons Prague 6:3: match report and statistics

Tournament

Czech Republic. University League

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	UK Kings Prague	26	20	0	3	112:65	+47	64	LWWLW
2	Engineers Prague	26	16	0	6	123:77	+46	56	WWLWW
3	Black Dogs Budweis	26	15	0	5	122:65	+57	55	WWLWW
4	Academics Plzen	26	15	0	8	109:67	+42	50	LWWWL
5	BO Ostrava	26	13	0	6	86:62	+24	50	WLLWW
6	VSE Falcons Prague	26	11	0	8	104:96	+8	42	LLWLW
7	United Hradec Kralove	26	11	0	11	76:85	-9	39	WWLWW
8	Riders University of Pardubice	26	7	0	13	83:115	-32	28	LWWWL
9	Farmers Prague	26	7	0	16	80:106	-26	26	WLLLW
10	Cavaliers Brno	26	7	0	15	67:91	-24	26	LLWLL
11	Masaryk University	26	4	0	16	66:94	-28	22	WLWLL
12	North Wings	26	3	0	22	56:161	-105	10	LLLLL

• Promotion - Czech Republic. University League (Play-In: Final)
• Promotion - Czech Republic. University League (Play-In: Round of 4)

• The model expects 5.25 goals: 3.25 for BO Ostrava and 2 for VSE Falcons Prague.
• Most likely score is 3–1 (6%), followed by 3–2 (6%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in P3: 9 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.75, 2nd — 1.33.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	—	—	99%	1.01
Over 1.5	—	—	97%	1.03
Over 2.5	—	—	89%	1.12
Over 3.5	67%	100%	77%	1.30
Over 4.5	67%	100%	60%	1.66

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (3), away team away (2). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams BO Ostrava VSE Falcons Prague

• Scored in 8 matches in a row100%
• Both teams scored in 6 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 6 matches in a row100%
• Both teams scored in 6 matches in a row100%
• Over 2.5 in 6 matches in a row100%
• Scored in 6 matches in a row100%
• Under 5.5 goals in 8 of 8 matches100%
• Scored under 3.5 in 8 of 8 matches100%
• Won 5 of 5 matches after scoring first100%
• Conceded under 2.5 in 7 of 8 matches88%
• Over 5.5 goals in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Scored over 1.5 in 5 of 6 matches83%

Based on recent matches: home team — 8, away team — 6

BO Ostravamatches: 3 · 2VSE Falcons Prague

4.0Avg match total6.5

67%2/3Over 3.5100%2/2

33%1/3Under 3.50%0/2

67%2/3Over 4.5100%2/2

33%1/3Under 4.50%0/2

0%0/3Over 5.5100%2/2

100%3/3Under 5.50%0/2

0%0/3Over 6.550%1/2

100%3/3Under 6.550%1/2

0%0/3Over 7.50%0/2

100%3/3Under 7.5100%2/2

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

BO OstravaVSE Falcons Prague

67%2/3Scores first100%2/2

100%2/2…and wins0%0/2

0%0/2…and draws0%0/2

0%0/2…and loses100%2/2

50%1/2…and then concedes100%2/2

First to concede…

Overall

• • BO Ostrava opened the scoring in 67% of matches.
• • BO Ostrava avoided defeat after conceding first in 0% of such matches.
• • VSE Falcons Prague opened the scoring in 100% of matches.

BO Ostrava				VSE Falcons Prague
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
2	1	67%	Period 1	100%	3	2
1	1	67%	Period 2	100%	1	3
2	4	100%	Period 3	100%	0	3
0	0	0%	Period 4	100%	0	1
4	3	100%	Period 5	—	—	—

• • BO Ostrava scores most in Period 5: 4 of 9 goals (44%).
• • BO Ostrava concedes most in Period 3: 4 of 9 conceded.
• • VSE Falcons Prague scores most in Period 1: 3 of 4 goals (75%).
• • VSE Falcons Prague concedes most in Period 2: 3 of 9 conceded.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Head-to-head matches: 3 · 9 goals per match on average.