HPK U20 — Lukko U20: statistics, head-to-head and preview

Tournament

Finland Championship U20

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/-	Pts	Form
1	HIFK U20	18	11	0	3	64:39	+25	39	WWLWW
2	Pelicans U20	17	11	0	4	58:40	+18	36	LLWWW
3	Oulun Karpat U20	19	10	0	6	69:55	+14	36	WWLLW
4	Jukurit U20	18	9	0	5	54:52	+2	33	WWWWW
5	Kiekko-Espoo U20	18	10	0	7	72:52	+20	31	LLWWL
6	Tappara U20	17	9	0	6	52:56	-4	29	WWLLW
7	Lukko U20	16	8	0	6	47:37	+10	28	LLLWW
8	HPK U20	14	8	0	3	56:36	+20	27	LWLLL
9	TPS U20	16	7	0	4	48:49	-1	27	WWWWW
10	Jokerit U20	18	7	0	7	58:49	+9	26	WLLLL
11	Ilves U20	16	7	0	7	58:63	-5	24	LLWWL
12	KalPa U20	16	4	0	7	51:55	-4	22	LLWWL
13	Vaasan Sport U20	16	6	0	8	62:59	+3	21	WWWWL
14	SaiPa U20	16	5	0	7	54:59	-5	21	LLWLW
15	JYP Jyvaskyla U20	16	6	0	8	51:58	-7	21	WLLLW
16	Assat U20	16	2	0	9	41:55	-14	15	LWLLL
17	KooKoo Kouvola U20	17	3	0	12	35:63	-28	11	LWWLL
18	Roki U20	18	1	0	15	41:94	-53	6	LLLLL

• Promotion - Finland Championship U20 (Play-off: Round of 8)
• Promotion - Finland Championship U20 (Play-off: Round of 16)
• Finland Championship U20 - Relegation (Play-off)

• The model expects 6.43 goals: 3.69 for HPK U20 and 2.74 for Lukko U20.
• Most likely score is 3–2 (5%), followed by 4–2 (5%).
• Most goals in both teams' matches come in P2: 52 in total.
• Expected goals by half: 1st — 1.74, 2nd — 2.92.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Over 0.5	—	—	100%	1.00
Over 1.5	—	—	99%	1.01
Over 2.5	—	—	95%	1.05
Over 3.5	100%	100%	88%	1.13
Over 4.5	89%	80%	77%	1.30

Poisson model on recent matches: home team at home (9), away team away (10). History — share of each team's matches where the line came in.

Both teams HPK U20 Lukko U20

• 3 defeats in a row100%
• Winless in 3 matches100%
• Over 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 matches90%
• Over 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored over 1.5 in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches80%
• Scored over 2.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%
• Conceded under 3.5 in 7 of 10 matches70%

Based on recent matches: home team — 10, away team — 10

HPK U20matches: 9 · 10Lukko U20

7.4Avg match total5.4

100%9/9Over 3.5100%10/10

0%0/9Under 3.50%0/10

89%8/9Over 4.580%8/10

11%1/9Under 4.520%2/10

78%7/9Over 5.540%4/10

22%2/9Under 5.560%6/10

56%5/9Over 6.520%2/10

44%4/9Under 6.580%8/10

44%4/9Over 7.50%0/10

56%5/9Under 7.5100%10/10

Share of each team's recent matches where the match total went over / under the line.

First to score…

HPK U20Lukko U20

60%3/5Scores first71%5/7

67%2/3…and wins80%4/5

0%0/3…and draws0%0/5

33%1/3…and loses20%1/5

100%3/3…and then concedes80%4/5

First to concede…

Overall

• • HPK U20 opened the scoring in 60% of matches.
• • HPK U20 avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.
• • Lukko U20 opened the scoring in 71% of matches.
• • Lukko U20 avoided defeat after conceding first in 50% of such matches.

HPK U20				Lukko U20
For	Ag.	%	Period	%	For	Ag.
13	6	75%	Period 1	80%	8	3
16	9	100%	Period 2	100%	11	16
6	8	88%	Period 3	100%	6	8
0	1	100%	Period 4	50%	1	0

• • HPK U20 scores most in Period 2: 16 of 35 goals (46%).
• • HPK U20 concedes most in Period 2: 9 of 24 conceded.
• • Lukko U20 scores most in Period 2: 11 of 28 goals (39%).
• • Lukko U20 concedes most in Period 2: 16 of 28 conceded.
• Framed — the period where the team scores / concedes the most. % — share of matches with an event in the period.

Head-to-head matches: 6 · 6.17 goals per match on average.