Aryna Sabalenka — Elena Rybakina 0:2: match report and statistics

• 5 Aces 13
• 0 Double faults 2
• 63% First serve 64%
• 65% (30/46)1st serve points won(34/47) 72%
• 52% (14/27)2nd serve points won(19/26) 73%
• 0% Break points saved 0%
• 28% (13/47)1st serve return points won(16/46) 35%
• 27% (7/26)2nd serve return points won(13/27) 48%
• 0% Break points converted 0%
• 12 Winners 36
• 26 Unforced errors 22
• 60% (44/73)Service points won(53/73) 73%
• 27% (20/73)Return points won(29/73) 40%
• 44% (64/146)Total points won(82/146) 56%
• 0 Посл. 10 мячей 10
• 0 Match Points Saved 0
• 90% (9/10)Service games won(11/11) 100%
• 0% (0/11)Return games won(1/10) 10%
• 43% (9/21)Total games won(12/21) 57%

• 1 : 0
  15:0 30:0 30:15 40:15 40:30
• 1 : 1
  0:15 0:30 0:40
• 2 : 1
  0:15 15:15 15:30 15:40 BP30:40 BP40:40 A:40
• 2 : 2
  0:15 0:30 0:40
• 3 : 2
  15:0 15:15 30:15 30:30 40:30
• 3 : 3
  0:15 15:15 15:30 15:40
• 4 : 3
  0:15 15:15 30:15 40:15 40:30 40:40 A:40
• 4 : 4
  0:15 15:15 15:30 15:40
• 5 : 4
  0:15 0:30 15:30 15:40 BP30:40 BP40:40 A:40 40:40 A:40
• 5 : 5
  15:0 15:15 30:15 40:15 SP40:30 SP40:40 40:A 40:40 40:A
• 6 : 5
  15:0 30:0 40:0
• 6 : 6
  0:15 15:15 15:30 15:40
• Tie-break0 : 7
  0:10:20:30:40:50:60:7

Tournament

WTA - ODINOChNYY RAZRYaD: Finals - Indian Wells (Mir), khard(Stat)

Season

2025

Referee

Marija Cicak

• On serve the model gives Aryna Sabalenka 59% of points and Elena Rybakina 60% — adjusted for the opponent's return.
• Most likely score in sets is 0:2 (29%), then 1:2 (27%).
• About 24.8 games expected; over 21.5 — 65%.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Aryna Sabalenka wins	100%3/3	0%0/2	45%	2.24
Elena Rybakina wins	0%0/3	100%2/2	55%	1.81
Aryna Sabalenka wins 1st set	100%3/3	50%1/2	46%	2.15
Deciding set	67%2/3	50%1/2	50%	2.01
Tiebreak in match	33%1/3	0%0/2	37%	2.71
Score in sets
0:2	0%0/3	50%1/2	29%	3.49
1:2	0%0/3	50%1/2	27%	3.75
2:1	67%2/3	0%0/2	23%	4.33
2:0	33%1/3	0%0/2	22%	4.64

Model: serve and return points of each player in recent matches (3 and 2) → game → set → match. History — share of each player's matches where the market came in.

Compared with the average of all players in these matches (both players and their opponents). Recent 10 matches.

Both teams Aryna Sabalenka Elena Rybakina

• 3 wins in a row100%

Based on recent matches: home team — 3, away team — 2

Points won on serve: 63% Points won on serve: 68%Before the match: 26%

Markov model: each player's chance to win a point on serve → game → set → match. Bars below show how much each point mattered.