Federico Cina — Reilly Opelka 3:2: match report and statistics
ATP. Roland Garros · 24.05.2026 12:55 · Finished
Head-to-head: Federico Cina vs Reilly OpelkaClayChristian Rask (Denmark)
Who will win?
Votes: 0- Federico Cina0%
- Draw0%
- Reilly Opelka0%
Overview
The ATP. Roland Garros match Federico Cina – Reilly Opelka on 24.05.2026 12:55 (UTC) finished 3:2. Federico Cina took the victory.
Federico Cina, last 6 games: won 5, lost 1. Reilly Opelka, last 5 games: won 2, lost 3.
More on the site: Federico Cina statistics, Reilly Opelka statistics, ATP. Roland Garros standings and results.
Other games: all Tennis matches of the day.
Score by periods
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Federico Cina | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
 Reilly Opelka | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
Match statistics
- 6 Aces 14
- 1 Double faults 10
- 61% First serve 60%
- 72% (68/94)1st serve points won(68/89) 76%
- 75% (44/59)2nd serve points won(34/59) 58%
- 0% Break points saved 0%
- 183 Средн. скорость 1-й подачи 202
- 146 Средн. скорость 2-й подачи 175
- 24% (21/89)1st serve return points won(26/94) 28%
- 42% (25/59)2nd serve return points won(15/59) 25%
- 0% Break points converted 0%
- 33 Winners 57
- 23 Unforced errors 80
- 89 (16/18)Net points won(20/28) 71
- 69% (108/156)Service points won(95/145) 66%
- 34% (50/145)Return points won(48/156) 31%
- 52% (158/301)Total points won(143/301) 48%
- 6 Посл. 10 мячей 4
- 0 Match Points Saved 0
- 88% (22/25)Service games won(19/24) 79%
- 21% (5/24)Return games won(3/25) 12%
- 55% (27/49)Total games won(22/49) 45%
Game by game
Federico Cina
Reilly Opelka
5/5Service games won4/51Breaks01/5Break points converted0/4
- 1 : 0Lost serve15:0 30:0 40:0 BP40:15 BP40:30 BP
- 2 : 015:0 30:0 30:15 40:15 40:30
- 2 : 115:0 30:0 30:15 30:30 30:40
- 3 : 115:0 30:0 40:0
- 3 : 215:0 30:0 30:15 40:15 BP40:30 BP40:40 40:A
- 4 : 215:0 15:15 15:30 30:30 30:40 BP40:40 A:40
- 4 : 30:15 15:15 15:30 15:40 30:40 40:40 40:A
- 5 : 315:0 30:0 40:0
- 5 : 40:15 0:30 0:40 15:40
- 6 : 40:15 0:30 0:40 BP15:40 BP30:40 BP40:40 A:40 MP
Head-to-head
Federico Cina?WWWLW
Matches played: 0
draws: 0
0 / 0
Wins
0 / 00 / 0
Points
0 / 0
Reilly Opelka?LLWWL
Matches
The teams have not met yet
Previous matches: Federico Cina
Previous matches: Reilly Opelka
Match info
- Tournament
- ATP. Roland Garros
- Season
- 2026
- Referee
- Christian Rask
ATP. Roland Garros
From round:
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-final
Match forecast and markets
Quick readFederico Cina favourite · 70%Likely score 3:1Expected games 42.3Tiebreak in match 71%
70%Win · Federico Cina1.42
30%Win · Reilly Opelka3.38
42.3Expected games
61%Federico Cina wins 1st set1.63
71%Tiebreak in match1.41
34%Deciding set2.96
- On serve the model gives Federico Cina 68% of points and Reilly Opelka 65% — adjusted for the opponent's return.
- Most likely score in sets is 3:1 (27%), then 3:0 (23%).
- About 42.3 games expected; over 37.5 — 67%.
| Market | history | history | Model | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Cina wins | 83%5/6 | 50%5/10 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Reilly Opelka wins | 17%1/6 | 50%5/10 | 30% | 3.38 |
| Federico Cina wins 1st set | 67%4/6 | 50%5/10 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Deciding set | 33%2/6 | 30%3/10 | 34% | 2.96 |
| Tiebreak in match | 17%1/6 | 70%7/10 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Score in sets | ||||
| 3:1 | 0%0/6 | 0%0/10 | 27% | 3.74 |
| 3:0 | 0%0/6 | 0%0/10 | 23% | 4.35 |
| 3:2 | 0%0/6 | 10%1/10 | 21% | 4.83 |
| 2:3 | 0%0/6 | 0%0/10 | 13% | 7.64 |
| 1:3 | 0%0/6 | 0%0/10 | 11% | 9.36 |
| 0:3 | 0%0/6 | 10%1/10 | 6% | 17.20 |
Model: serve and return points of each player in recent matches (6 and 10) → game → set → match. History — share of each player's matches where the market came in.
Players' style of play
Federico Cinamatches: 6
Strengths
- Return points won 42% (avg 30%)Very strong
- Return games won 32% (avg 12%)Very strong
- Closing out after winning 1st set 4/4Strong
Weaknesses
- Aces per match 2.5 (avg 10.3)Very weak
- Points won on 2nd serve 47% (avg 54%)Very weak
- First serve in 59% (avg 64%)Weak
- Points won on 1st serve 76% (avg 79%)Weak
- Service games held 81% (avg 88%)Weak
- Aces per match
- 2.5
- Double faults per match
- 3.3
- First serve in
- 59%
- Service games held
- 81%
- Return games won
- 32%
Reilly Opelkamatches: 10
Strengths
- Aces per match 21.2 (avg 10.3)Very strong
- First serve in 70% (avg 64%)Strong
- Points won on 1st serve 82% (avg 79%)Strong
- Service games held 94% (avg 88%)Strong
Weaknesses
- Deciding sets 1/3Weak
- Aces per match
- 21.2
- Double faults per match
- 4.4
- First serve in
- 70%
- Service games held
- 94%
- Return games won
- 7%
What to expect
- Both hold serve confidently — a tiebreak is possible (71% by the model)Very likely
- Federico Cina will break Reilly Opelka's serveLikely
- Reilly Opelka will hit many aces — 21.2 per match on averageVery likely
Compared with the average of all players in these matches (both players and their opponents). Recent 10 matches.
Trends
- Under 37.5 games in 6 of 6 matches100%
- 3 wins in a row100%
- Under 37.5 games in 9 of 10 matches90%
- Wins in 5 of 6 matches83%
- Matches without a deciding set: 7 of 1070%
- Tiebreak in 7 of 10 matches70%
Based on recent matches: home team — 6, away team — 10
Win probability
Points won on serve: 71% Points won on serve: 67%Before the match: 73%Markov model: each player's chance to win a point on serve → game → set → match. Bars below show how much each point mattered.