Tiago Pereira — Filippo Moroni 1:0: match report and statistics

• 9 Посл. 10 мячей 1

• 1 : 0
  0:15 15:15 30:15 40:15

Tournament

Figueira da Foz

Season

2026

• On serve the model gives Tiago Pereira 64% of points and Filippo Moroni 59% — adjusted for the opponent's return.
• Most likely score in sets is 2:0 (46%), then 2:1 (30%).
• About 24.2 games expected; over 21.5 — 60%.

Market	history	history	Model	Fair odds
Tiago Pereira wins	33%2/6	83%5/6	75%	1.33
Filippo Moroni wins	67%4/6	17%1/6	25%	4.03
Tiago Pereira wins 1st set	50%3/6	50%3/6	68%	1.48
Deciding set	67%4/6	67%4/6	44%	2.28
Tiebreak in match	17%1/6	17%1/6	37%	2.70
Score in sets
2:0	0%0/6	33%2/6	46%	2.19
2:1	33%2/6	50%3/6	30%	3.38
1:2	33%2/6	17%1/6	14%	7.01
0:2	33%2/6	0%0/6	11%	9.47

Model: serve and return points of each player in recent matches (6 and 6) → game → set → match. History — share of each player's matches where the market came in.

Compared with the average of all players in these matches (both players and their opponents). Recent 10 matches.

Both teams Tiago Pereira Filippo Moroni

• 4 defeats in a row100%
• Over 21.5 games in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Losses in 5 of 6 matches83%
• Over 21.5 games in 5 of 6 matches83%

Based on recent matches: home team — 6, away team — 6

Points won on serve: 66% Points won on serve: 52%Before the match: 96%

Markov model: each player's chance to win a point on serve → game → set → match. Bars below show how much each point mattered.